5 Year Strategic Plan 2005/06 - Department of Education

13.9. Programme 2 - Public Ordinary School Education
13.9.1 Demographic pressures and access issues
The following information refers to public ordinary, independent and special schools. It is
nevertheless recommended that it appear in this section, considering that public ordinary
schools form the bulk of the total.
p a r t C : b a c k g r o u n d i n f o r m a t i o n
13.9.2 Learner Enrolment
The number of learners in Public Ordinary Schools (POS) has decreased from
2,357,220 in 1995 to 2,145,083 in 2004 - a decrease of 9.8% (see graph 8)
A comparison of the age-grade enrolment data for the three years shows that in 2001,
10 644 less learners enrolled in Grade 1 than in 2000. There was an even larger
decrease in Grade 2, where 15 815 less learners were recorded. These two grades,
together with Grade 12 showed the greatest decline in enrolment between 2000 and
2001. Several grades indicated an increase, namely Grade 4, 6 and 8. Some of the
Grade 1 losses were reversed during the period 2001 to 2002 (gain of 1 953 learners)
but there was a big decrease in reported Grade 3 enrolment of –17 614 learners and
Grade 8 of –12 989. It is not clear at this stage why there should be seemingly random
gains and losses across grades from one year to the next. On the whole though, it is
encouraging to note the relative stabilization of enrolment trends compared to previous
years. One somewhat controversial view is that AIDS is having a debilitating effect on
the school system, both in terms of higher drop-out rates due to increased numbers of
orphans and higher learner mortality.
There is currently no systematic means in place for determining the effect of the AIDS
pandemic on the school system. It may also be possible that population is decreasing
due to natural factors such as improved family planning and rural-urban migration.
Graph 7: Learner Enrolment in Public ordinary Schools (1995-2001)
Eastern Cape Department of Education
Public School Enrolment and Projections 1995 - 2007
4 April 2005
Millions
2.5
2.4
2.3
Enrolment
2.2
2.1
Enrolment Excl Gr R
Enrolment Incl Gr R
2.0
1.9
1.8
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Enrolment Excl Gr R 2,316,998 2,382,576 2,313,605 2,331,001 2,308,532 2,126,676 2,030,689 2,065,750 2,068,904 2,062,052 2,072,703 2,068,748 2,068,595
Enrolment Incl Gr R 2,357,220 2,422,551 2,353,962 2,371,215 2,347,782 2,168,196 2,071,689 2,108,110 2,108,712 2,145,083 2,176,659 2,153,597 2,158,813
Years
5 Year ECDoE Strategic Plan for 2005/06 to 2009/10. March 2006 Page 76
5 Year ECDoE Strategic Plan for 2005-06 to 2009-10. 21 F (4)Page 72