Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

Finally, Section Five looks at two case studies applicable to the Stability issue. First, Robert
Popp (4.1) reports on the Sudan in “Sudan Strategic Assessment: A Case Study of Social Science
Modeling.” This assessment was a strategic level proof-of-concept study in which a combination
of quantitative and computational social science modeling and analysis approaches were
developed and applied to better understand a complex “state” lacking true borders and
encompassing many competing interests and complexities. Results demonstrated how multiple
quantitative and computational social science models in conjunction with SMEs and other
analyses are an effective, evolutionary step in the analyst toolkit, especially when the need is to
provide additional lenses to look at highly complex and ambiguous stability problems (like the
Sudan) to inform the decision-making process.
Second, Tom Mullen (4.2) presents “Analyzing Stability Challenges in Africa: A Case Study.”
He notes that, with resources spread thin, we need better ways to rapidly understand what
matters in each new situation, and to better understand why particular actions worked (and others
did not), to aid in determining where and how those lessons might be more likely to work well.
Assessment of highly complex situations quickly improves the ability to take rapid, effective
action. Mullen’s case study attempts to provide lessons drawn from analyzing a number of
stability situations on the continent of Africa over the past three years, with a focus on lessons in
analyzing complex stability situations rather than specific actions to apply in a wide range of
situations.
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