Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

savings and investments in health and education, a more highly trained workforce, and economic
growth, if governments invest in human capital and financial systems. In such situations,
authoritarian leaders can be more willing to loosen political restrictions, or elites may create
pressure for a change in government. 7
In a historical analysis similar to that described above for civil conflict, the likelihood of a
government being rated as a full democracy progressively increases as countries pass through the
demographic transition. Between 1970 and 2007, 14 percent of countries with very young age
structures and 80 percent of countries with mature age structures were classified as full
democracies, on average, at the end of each decade, as shown in Figure 2.1.C-3. 8 This pattern
continues with other measurements of governance: countries with very young and youthful age
structures are also more likely to be characterized by weak institutional capacity, government
corruption, poor regulatory quality, and fewer political freedoms and civil liberties. Countries
that have passed through the demographic transition and achieved transitional or, in particular,
mature age structures, are rated much more highly in terms of these governance measures. 9
Figure 2.1.C-3. Likelihood of Democratic Governance by Age Structure Type 10
It is clear that there is no direct causal relationship between population and conflict or population
and democracy—no single demographic threshold that, once crossed, leaves a state doomed to
upheaval or tyranny. Most countries with youthful, growing populations pass through decades
free from outbreaks of conflict despite demographic pressures, and the ultimate successes and
challenges to development depend on individual context. Researchers have widely reiterated that
the presence of a youthful age structure is not sufficient to create conflict; nor does a mature age
structure guarantee domestic peace and democracy. Rather, underlying social conditions that
create grievance and make involvement in an insurgency a viable or even appealing option are
necessary. In fact, because of the interplay of factors such as poverty, inequity, and institutional
capacity, the relationship is more holistically framed as one between population and
development.
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