Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

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PREFACE (RDML John E. Roberti) This timely and important compilation of papers forms an essential step in understanding the importance and interdependency of factors effecting stability. The authors, both academicians and military subject matter experts, provide invaluable insight by adding their accumulated knowledge and expertise to the project. The ability to assess and foresee potential instabilities presents a challenging problem. Recent crises in political, social, economic, climatologic and energy issues represent just a few indicators of continuing global instability. As we consider the complexities of the 21st century, quantitative and qualitative approaches to the study of instability will be integral to developing an appropriate understanding of the strategic context for national security. This compilation assists in building a more rigorously informed understanding of these key issues. It is critically important, for us to understand global strategic risk, that we identify and fully comprehend the interdependence among these complex issues influencing regional and global stability. By determining the probability and consequence of this risk, we can take a prioritized approach to reducing instability by a well-informed application of all elements of national power. John E. Roberti Rear Admiral, USN Deputy Director, Strategy and Policy, J-5 The Joint Staff 3
Executive Summary (Rosa Affleck, Todd Anderson, Roy Cooper, Rose Rainey) Authors and Organizations: Rosa Affleck, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center CRREL; Todd Anderson, Roy Cooper, Rose Rainey - Information International Associates, Inc. Contact Information: Rosa.T.Affleck@usace.army.mil, tanderson@iiaweb.com, rcooper@iiaweb.com, rraney@iiaweb.com A Challenging Problem Cooperative security, stability operations and irregular warfare missions require a better understanding of the complex operational environment, notably through rich contextual understanding of the factors affecting stability. Further assessment, policy, and planning need to consider factors associated with institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) based on how societies emerge, develop, and function, as well as attributes that provide resiliency and flexibility. Today, stability experts are faced with a new environment in which the world is highly interconnected, change is very rapid, and threats are multifaceted; all of these pose very different challenges to the US Government (USG). The current financial situation underscores both the rapidity and global extent of economic collapse, and it has exacerbated problems in other areas. Solutions in one area can have first-, second-, and third-order effects in other areas; these effects can be both positive and negative. Global average food prices increased by more than 80% during 2005-2008, sparking food riots in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, the Former Soviet Union, and Central and South America. Contributing factors are complicated; for example, shifts in food demands may be contributing to the food price increases, as increasing use of food crops for biofuels and increasing demand for protein-rich diets dramatically decreases efficient use of grain calories. Estimates of future water availability are alarming, and while earthquakes often impact manmade water management structures, reports also suggest that geophysical changes caused by large dams may have triggered earthquakes, including China’s 7.9 magnitude earthquake last year along a fault near the Zipingpu Dam and Reservoir that left 80,000 people missing or dead. In addition to food and water issues, severe weather events and climate change, shifts in demographics, increasing energy demands, pandemics, and threatened usage of nuclear weapons are threats that individually, or worse, in combination, can significantly increase the fragility of world stability. While in today’s increasingly interconnected world, global crises and unstable regions pose an acute risk to world security and could provide unforeseen circumstances ripe for manipulation and exploitation, these same threats can serve as rallying instruments, catalyzing disparate groups to work in concert to develop coordinated responses and preparedness mechanisms. This coordination can also result in development of negotiation venues for other issues. First-, secondand third-order effects can have positive impacts. In addition to the factors identified in the frameworks above, other dimensions of consideration include (1) institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) as a function of how societies emerge, develop, and operate, and (2) attributes that provide resilience and flexibility. 4
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Page 3: 2.6.B. Infectious Disease and Socia
Page 7 and 8: The rim of the wheel is a series of
Page 9 and 10: that ultimately, the strategic aspe
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Banking Crises and Domestic Agitati
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esponsible for all refunds. Further
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Thus, the analyses in this article
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to afford and withstand a banking c
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conducted using GINI had an overall
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The models used for the analyses in
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We found some support for those who
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39 Carstens, Agustin, Daniel Hardy
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92 Rose, Richard, Doh C. Shin and N
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141 Jaccard, James, Robert Turrisi
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U.S. national security is defined a
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Linkages: Economics to U.S. Nationa
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2.3. Water 2.3.A. Water and Securit
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There are, however, river basins at
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efforts deteriorated, so too did so
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What Does This Mean to Water and Se
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Marshal Gibbons Ogden 1808: Gallati
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learn about how type 3 countries in
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typhoid, dysentery, hepatitis A and
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Population Changes. The world’s p
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Integrated Water Resources Manageme
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21 “Integrated Water Resources Ma
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2.3.C. Water Security and Scarcity:
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for expansion (Wegerich, 2009). Alt
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destabilize Western Afghanistan if
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Afghanistan explosively, slowing or
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Appendix 2. Figure 2. Central Afgha
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Food and Agriculture Organization (
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2.4. Changing of Climate and State
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Today’s Population Demographics T
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ecosystem of the massive Mississipp
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Table 2.4.A-2. The Mosquito Vectors
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odents, such as the US West and the
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The Globalization and Industrializa
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3. The earth is warming and the pac
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30. Raoult D, Fournier P-E, Fenocca
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Economics, Resources, and Developme
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Security concerns and issues do not
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3 Yalowitz, p. 13 4 Gautier, G. L.
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Stern addresses the impacts of glob
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Vulnerabilities to Climate Change a
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Considering the historical evidence
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change mitigation can be defined ge
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5 Wolf, A.T., A Kramer, A. Carius,
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Carpenter, S.R., P.L. Pingali, E.M.
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Energy 2.4.D. Energy, Africa, and C
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Researchers who have systematically
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another Rwanda happen. However, whe
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2.4.E. Energy: A National and Globa
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500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
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to combat environmental pollution.
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The first and most important step i
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impacts, and reduced environmental
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Recognizing the characteristics of
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Figure 2.5.B-9. A Snapshot of Selec
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more than 42 years. That is, the le
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Using average values from the liter
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27 Coal Power database, U.S. Depart
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2.5. Food 2.5.A. World Food Availab
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also are the source of clean air, w
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preserve critical wildlife habitats
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3 von Braun, J. (2007). “The worl
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2.5.B. Food Production in Arid Regi
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ut the impacts of leaching salts pr
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Sustainable use of treated waste wa
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2.6. Epidemics 2.6.A. Epidemics: A
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populations, migrants, prostitutes)
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egions. Initiatives that are purely
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2.6.B. Infectious Disease and Socia
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HIV in the early 1980s is likely th
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treatment are lost until an outbrea
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3. Social Science Modeling and Anal
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what in-sample analysis will allow.
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groups. 45 This examination of oper
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31 O'Brien, S. P. (2002). "Anticipa
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Figure 3.2.A-1. Simplified Cultural
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“Tragedy of the Commons,” in wh
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Anthropological Theories of Collaps
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exacerbate rather than resolve prob
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14 Handwerker, W. P. (1986). “The
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The following section presents a me
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mutually exclusive and exhaustive c
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For example, the national televisio
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Figure 3.4-1. Risk of Future Instab
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Infant Rates Militarization Neighbo
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Overview of Results Table 3.4-2 lis
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Table 3.4-3 lists the 17 countries
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een newly classified as partial dem
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In addition, the indicator for econ
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Table 3.4-5 - The Peace and Conflic
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armed conflict. The symbol indicat
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3.5. Perception is Reality: Stabili
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the Gallup World Poll. The World Po
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unstable areas, the most critical n
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3.6. Assessing the Stability of Int
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games of complete information and b
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4 Kahn, Herman (1962). Thinking Abo
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2. A partnership is not a relations
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is necessary is that the payoffs fo
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2. Implications for Setting up the
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how to be selective. We have alread
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10 Making Partnerships Work on the
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3.8. Process Query System as a Fram
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for associating evidence, events, o
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e instantiated to accommodate the n
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The table below describes examples
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16 S. Oh et al., A Scalable Real-Ti
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mid-1980s, Battelle introduced one
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increase or decrease the a priori p
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ather than being buried as so many
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state. American foreign policy woul
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14 E. J. Honton, G. S. Stacey, and
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community preparedness, but no docu
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Societal and Community Resiliency:
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1 World Conference on Disaster Risk
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Figure 4.1-1. The Multi-organizatio
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Table 4.1-1. Summary Social Science
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1 U Sudan Strategic Assessment TTPs
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Approach - Analyzing a Region as a
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situations, this analysis is perfor
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a rapid assessment. Gaining access
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Appendix A. Acronyms A2C2 ACH ACM A
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TCS ToL TRADOC TTPs UNO USAFA WHO W
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