Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

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9 Economist Intelligence Unit. (2008, December 1). Country Forecast December 2008 Updater. Available online at www.eiu.com 10 UN Population Division. (2007). World population prospects, 2006 revision [Database]. Available online at http://esa.un.org/unpp/ 11 Jackson, Richard, & Neil Howe, with Rebecca Strauss & Keisuke Nakashima. (2008). The graying of the great powers: Demography and geopolitics in the 21st century. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies. 12 Eberstadt, Nicholas. (2001, March/April). “The population implosion.” Foreign Policy. 13 Friedman, Benjamin. (2005). The moral consequences of economic growth. New York: Alfred Knopf. 14 UN Population Division. (2007). World population prospects, 2006 revision [Database]. Available online at http://esa.un.org/unpp/ 15 UN Population Division. (2006, March). International migration 2006. New York: United Nations. Available online at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/2006Migration_Chart/Migration2006.pdf 16 Longman, Philip. (2006, March/April). “The return of patriarchy.” Foreign Policy. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). (2008). OECD. Statistical Extracts [Database]. Available online at http://stats.oecd. org/wbos/index.aspx?lang=en 17 Goldstone, Jack A. (2006). “Engineering, culture, innovation, and modern wealth creation.” In Irene Johansson (Ed.), Innovations and entrepreneurship in functional regions, Uddevalla Symposium 2005 (pp. 455-474). Trollhattan, Sweden: University West. 18 United States Department of Labor (DOL). (2008). Chartbook of international labor comparisons: The Americas, Asia, Europe. Washington, DC: DOL. 19 Simon, Julian L. (1999). The economic consequences of immigration (2nd ed). Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. 20 Longman, Philip. (2006, March/April). “The return of patriarchy.” Foreign Policy. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). (2008). OECD. Statistical Extracts [Database]. Available online at http://stats.oecd. org/wbos/index.aspx?lang=en 21 UN Population Division. (2008). World urbanization prospects: The 2007 revision population Database [Database]. Available online at http://esa.un.org/unup/ 22 UN Population Division. (2008). World urbanization prospects: The 2007 revision population Database [Database]. Available online at http://esa.un.org/unup/ 43
2.1.C. Demographic Security (Elizabeth Leahy Madsen) Author and Organization: Elizabeth Leahy Madsen, Senior Research Associate, Population Action International Contact Information: emadsen@popact.org This paper reviews findings related to population and two aspects of stability—outbreaks of civil conflict and level of democratic governance—at the global scale. Because future stability will in part be shaped by the demographic trends that are already underway, this paper evaluates the implications of population projections and the assumptions that will be required to achieve them. The theme of the paper is that population influences security and development and is an important underlying variable in global stability because of its interactions with other factors. Research has demonstrated that countries with rapidly growing populations, and the youthful age structures they entail, are more likely to experience outbreaks of civil conflict and undemocratic regimes, in addition to other development challenges related to poverty, health and natural resources. These relationships are complex and should not be distilled to simple cause and effect; however, demography is a key component of future-oriented assessments and planning. Although absolute population size has historically been considered an indicator of political power, current studies typically measure the impact of demographics through various categorizations of age structure—the relative size of age groups within a population—as well as through population growth rates and density. All countries’ populations can be classified into one of four major age structure types based on their progression through the demographic transition: very young, youthful, transitional, and mature. The transition is the decades-long shift from high mortality and fertility rates, beginning with initial longer life expectancies, and later, smaller family size. The four-age structure types relate the share of a population comprised of children and young adults under the age of 30 to the share of older adults above age 60 and are termed very young, youthful, transitional and mature. 1 Generally, countries with a very young age structure are those in which two-thirds or more of the population is younger than 30; in 2005, there were 64 such countries with a total population of more than one billion, including nearly all of sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan. In such countries, the youngest age groups comprise successively larger shares of the population, creating a pyramidshaped age structure (see Yemen in Figure 2.1.C-1). Once a country’s fertility rate declines below four children per woman, it is likely to reach the second category of age structures along the demographic transition, those termed youthful. The 31 countries in this category in 2005, with a combined population of nearly two billion, included India and most of North Africa. Countries in the middle of the demographic transition with a “transitional” age structure all have fertility rates lower than three children per woman, and between 45 and 60 percent of their population is comprised of young people under age 30. These 45 countries, including China, have a combined population of 2.4 billion. At the end of the demographic transition, countries with a mature age structure have fertility rates at the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman or below; less than 45 percent of their population is under age 30, while up to one-quarter of the population is comprised of older adults above 60. In 2005, the 56 countries with this type of age structure totaled 1.3 billion people and included nearly all of Europe. 2 The United States, with 42 percent of its population under age 30, had among the more youthful of the countries with “mature” age structures in 2005, given its relatively high replacement-level fertility rate, 44
Page 1 and 2: THIS WHITE PAPER IS PUBLISHED JOINT
Page 3 and 4: 2.6.B. Infectious Disease and Socia
Page 5 and 6: Executive Summary (Rosa Affleck, To
Page 7 and 8: The rim of the wheel is a series of
Page 9 and 10: that ultimately, the strategic aspe
Page 11 and 12: Joe Hewitt (3.4) contributes “The
Page 13 and 14: 1. Stability and State Building (Cl
Page 15 and 16: esponsibility for states, and their
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Page 29 and 30: Turkey 21 68 98 224% 44% Labor Forc
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Page 35 and 36: populations of 75 million or more.
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Page 47 and 48: Figure 2.1.C-2. Risk of Civil Confl
Page 49 and 50: The influence of age structure on d
Page 51 and 52: countries with youthful populations
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Page 59 and 60: Thus, the analyses in this article
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Page 63 and 64: conducted using GINI had an overall
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Page 75 and 76: U.S. national security is defined a
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Page 79 and 80: 2.3. Water 2.3.A. Water and Securit
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Page 85 and 86: What Does This Mean to Water and Se
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Integrated Water Resources Manageme
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21 “Integrated Water Resources Ma
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2.3.C. Water Security and Scarcity:
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for expansion (Wegerich, 2009). Alt
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destabilize Western Afghanistan if
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Afghanistan explosively, slowing or
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Appendix 2. Figure 2. Central Afgha
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Food and Agriculture Organization (
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2.4. Changing of Climate and State
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Today’s Population Demographics T
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ecosystem of the massive Mississipp
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Table 2.4.A-2. The Mosquito Vectors
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odents, such as the US West and the
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The Globalization and Industrializa
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3. The earth is warming and the pac
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30. Raoult D, Fournier P-E, Fenocca
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Economics, Resources, and Developme
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Security concerns and issues do not
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3 Yalowitz, p. 13 4 Gautier, G. L.
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Stern addresses the impacts of glob
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Vulnerabilities to Climate Change a
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Considering the historical evidence
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change mitigation can be defined ge
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5 Wolf, A.T., A Kramer, A. Carius,
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Carpenter, S.R., P.L. Pingali, E.M.
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Energy 2.4.D. Energy, Africa, and C
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Researchers who have systematically
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another Rwanda happen. However, whe
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2.4.E. Energy: A National and Globa
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500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
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to combat environmental pollution.
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The first and most important step i
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impacts, and reduced environmental
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Recognizing the characteristics of
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Figure 2.5.B-9. A Snapshot of Selec
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more than 42 years. That is, the le
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Using average values from the liter
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27 Coal Power database, U.S. Depart
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2.5. Food 2.5.A. World Food Availab
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also are the source of clean air, w
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preserve critical wildlife habitats
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3 von Braun, J. (2007). “The worl
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2.5.B. Food Production in Arid Regi
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ut the impacts of leaching salts pr
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Sustainable use of treated waste wa
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2.6. Epidemics 2.6.A. Epidemics: A
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populations, migrants, prostitutes)
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egions. Initiatives that are purely
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2.6.B. Infectious Disease and Socia
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HIV in the early 1980s is likely th
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treatment are lost until an outbrea
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3. Social Science Modeling and Anal
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what in-sample analysis will allow.
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groups. 45 This examination of oper
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31 O'Brien, S. P. (2002). "Anticipa
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Figure 3.2.A-1. Simplified Cultural
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“Tragedy of the Commons,” in wh
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Anthropological Theories of Collaps
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exacerbate rather than resolve prob
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14 Handwerker, W. P. (1986). “The
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The following section presents a me
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mutually exclusive and exhaustive c
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For example, the national televisio
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Figure 3.4-1. Risk of Future Instab
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Infant Rates Militarization Neighbo
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Overview of Results Table 3.4-2 lis
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Table 3.4-3 lists the 17 countries
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een newly classified as partial dem
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In addition, the indicator for econ
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Table 3.4-5 - The Peace and Conflic
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armed conflict. The symbol indicat
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3.5. Perception is Reality: Stabili
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the Gallup World Poll. The World Po
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unstable areas, the most critical n
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3.6. Assessing the Stability of Int
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games of complete information and b
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4 Kahn, Herman (1962). Thinking Abo
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2. A partnership is not a relations
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is necessary is that the payoffs fo
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2. Implications for Setting up the
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how to be selective. We have alread
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10 Making Partnerships Work on the
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3.8. Process Query System as a Fram
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for associating evidence, events, o
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e instantiated to accommodate the n
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The table below describes examples
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16 S. Oh et al., A Scalable Real-Ti
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mid-1980s, Battelle introduced one
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increase or decrease the a priori p
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ather than being buried as so many
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state. American foreign policy woul
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14 E. J. Honton, G. S. Stacey, and
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community preparedness, but no docu
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Societal and Community Resiliency:
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1 World Conference on Disaster Risk
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Figure 4.1-1. The Multi-organizatio
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Table 4.1-1. Summary Social Science
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1 U Sudan Strategic Assessment TTPs
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Approach - Analyzing a Region as a
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situations, this analysis is perfor
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a rapid assessment. Gaining access
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Appendix A. Acronyms A2C2 ACH ACM A
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TCS ToL TRADOC TTPs UNO USAFA WHO W
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