Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

These trends therefore require action in two major respects: first in regard to the major
international institutions for military, financial, and diplomatic action, and second in regard to
policies for international migration and law enforcement.
At this writing, the G-20 is replacing the G-8 as the international assembly that will arbitrate and
coordinate global financial policies; that is the natural direction for future revision of the global
institutional architecture. The global institutions established at the end of the second world war
were designed to perpetuate the power of that war’s victors: The United States, France, Britain,
Russia, and China (first the Republic on Taiwan, now the People’s Republic on the mainland).
The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and of course the United Nations retain a
structure giving these countries a dominant role, yet in the near future, a realistic appraisal of
global economic and manpower strength would show a more diverse and more balanced roster:
the United States, Russia, and China to be sure, but also the European Union as a whole (with
Germany, Poland, Spain, and Italy as key players), India, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey,
Nigeria, South Africa, Mexico, and perhaps Iran, Ukraine, Vietnam, and others. Given the rapid
shifts in economic and population growth expected in the years ahead, it seems it would be wise
if international institutions had a more flexible leadership structure. Rather than a fixed set of
countries filling key roles or staffing major institutions, it might be wise to stipulate that any
country, or any regional group of countries that establishes a common leadership or
representative faculty, which comprises 4% or more of the world’s population or 4% or more of
the world’s economy should have a seat at the leader’s table.
While such trends seem already underway in regard to global finance, a shift in the world’s
military alignments seems to be required, as well. If the major conflicts of the future are not
likely to be between NATO and Russia, or between Australia and Indonesia, or between Bolivia
and Brazil—in short, less likely to be international than domestic or regional conflicts brought on
by state failures—then the major international military alliances need to have the capacity to
intervene for humanitarian purposes and to provide order in failed states and regions affected by
them. That is a requirement for relatively low-tech but trained military and civilian manpower
that can be deployed in various regions of the world at an affordable cost. This requirement
simply cannot be supplied by NATO for the extended future, or not as NATO is currently
configured. This means it will be necessary either to expand NATO itself or replace it with a new
global military alliance (with similar shared training and equipment to allow coordinated joint
functions) geared to moving large numbers of military and civilian units into unstable areas and
supporting them there. This will clearly require a partnership that spans regions and that includes
both countries with large numbers of moderate-cost military and civilians available, and
countries with logistic and financial resources to support them. More explicitly, this means
incorporating countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and possibly Pakistan, the Philippines, South
Africa, and others into a joint structure. Right now, the United Nations’ blue helmets draw on
such countries precisely for such stabilization and peace-keeping missions. However, their
resources are limited, and their joint training and coordination a work-in-progress. Moreover,
they have the anomalous character of being deployed (and often commanded) by the decisions of
the UN Security Council, which is dominated by the handful of WWII dominant nations but is
manned mainly by troops from poorer countries who are often unrepresented on the Security
Council. Given the likely prevalence of such missions in the future, driven by growing numbers
of young men and urban expansion in developing economies affected by climate change and
economic change, it would seem prudent to prepare the most effective forces for such missions
by pooling the resources of diverse nations.
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