Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

which results in an age structure that is fairly balanced among children, youth and working-age adults
(see Figure 2.1.C-1).
Figure 2.1.C-1. Age Structure Types along the Demographic Transition 3
Population, Conflict and Governance
In an analysis of all new outbreaks of civil conflict with at least 25 battle deaths over the period
between 1970 and 2007, countries with a very young age structure type (in which at least twothirds
of the population is younger than 30) were more than three times as likely to have
experienced conflict than those with mature age structures that had completed the demographic
transition. 4 Although there is a decline in the risk of conflict with each successive age structure
type, the most profound drop in vulnerability lies between the first two categories of age
structures, as shown in Figure 2.1.C-2. Countries with very young age structures are twice as
likely to have experienced civil conflict as those with youthful age structures, demonstrating that
some degree of fertility decline, even if fertility rates remain well above replacement level, may
have broader ramifications.
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