Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

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Table of Contents PREFACE (RDML John E. Roberti).......................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary (Rosa Affleck, Todd Anderson, Roy Cooper, Rose Rainey).................. 4 1. Stability and State Building (Clare Lockhart) ................................................................ 12 2. Independent Trend and Trajectory of the Future: Issues Impacting Social Regional Stability ............................................................................................................................ 23 2.1. Demographics ................................................................................................................................... 23 2.1.A. Demographic and Economic Trends: Implications for International Migration (Philip Martin) ............................................................................ 23 2.1.B. Demography and Security (Jack Goldstone) ............................................... 32 2.1.C. Demographic Security (Elizabeth Leahy Madsen)...................................... 44 2.2. Economics........................................................................................................................................... 51 2.2.A. Banking Crises, Collective Protest and Rebellion (David Richards, Ronald Gelleny)........................................................................................................ 51 2.2.B. Economics and Political Instability within the Global Economic Crisis (Peter Steen)................................................................................................. 73 2.3. Water .................................................................................................................................................... 78 2.3.A. 2.3.B. Water and Security: Cause War or Help Community Building? (Jerome Delli Priscoli)............................................................................................... 78 Water Resources and Stability (J. Rolf Olsen, Kathleen White, Julie Kiang, D. Phil Turnipseed, Levi Brekke, David Raff, Roger Pulwarty, Robert Webb)........................................................................................................... 89 2.3.C. Water Security and Scarcity: Potential Destabilization in Western Afghanistan (Alex Dehgan, Laura Jean Palmer-Moloney).......................... 98 2.4. Changing of Climate and State Weather ..............................................................................110 2.4.A. Maintaining Geopolitical and Social Stability throughout a Global Economy in an Era of Climate Change (James Diaz)................................................ 110 2.4.B. The Arctic Region: Prospects for a Great Game or International Cooperation (Kenneth Yalowitz, Ross Virginia)............................................................ 125 2.4.C. Changing Climate Impacts to Water Resources: Implications for Stability (Kathleen White, J.Rolf Olsen, Levi Brekke, David Raff, Roger Pulwarty, Robert Webb)............................................................................................. 131 Energy............................................................................................................................................................144 2.4.D. Energy, Africa, and Civil Conflict: What Does the Future Hold? (Richard Stoll)........................................................................................................... 144 2.4.E. Energy: A National and Global Issue (Douglas Arent) ............................. 150 2.5. Food.....................................................................................................................................................170 2.5.A. World Food Availability and the Natural Land Resources Base (Jeffrey Steiner, Timothy Griffin)........................................................................... 170 2.5.B. Food Production in Arid Regions as Related to Salinity (Donald Suarez) 178 2.6. Epidemics..........................................................................................................................................184 2.6.A. Epidemics: A Thumbnail Sketch of the Past, Present and Future (Debarati Guha-Sapir)................................................................................................ 184 i
2.6.B. Infectious Disease and Social Instability: Prevent, Respond, Repair (Daniel Strickman).................................................................................................. 190 3. Social Science Modeling and Analysis Approaches ...................................................... 196 3.1. Analyzing Political and Social Regional Stability with Statistics: Challenges and Opportunities (Victor Asal, Stephen Shellman) ...............................................................196 3.2. The Social Stability of Societies: An Anthropological View (Lawrence Kuznar)203 3.3. Quantitative Content Analysis (Laura Leets) ....................................................................213 3.4. The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger Ranking States on Future Risks (J. Joseph Hewitt) ................................................................................................................................219 3.5. Perception is Reality: Stability through the Eyes of the Populace (Tom Rieger) ...............................................................................................................................................................236 3.6. Assessing the Stability of Interstate Relationships Using Game Theory (Frank Zagare) ...............................................................................................................................................242 3.7. Theoretical Foundations of Partnerships for Economic Development (Robert Axelrod).............................................................................................................................................247 3.8. Process Query System as a Framework for Modeling and Analysis of Regional Stability (George Cybenko, Douglas Madory) ...................................................................258 3.9. The Use of Cross‐impact Analysis for Modeling, Simulation, and Forecasting (Stephen Millett)............................................................................................................................267 3.10. Development of a Framework for Action: Community Resiliency as a Means of Achieving Stability (Ame Stormer, Jessica Wambach, Lt Gen (Ret) John Goodman) .........................................................................................................................................277 4. Case Studies ...................................................................................................................... 283 4.1. Sudan Strategic Assessment: A Case Study of Social Science Modeling (Robert Popp)...................................................................................................................................................283 4.2. Analyzing Stability Challenges in Africa: Case Study of an Approach (Tom Mullen)...............................................................................................................................................289 Appendix A. Acronyms ........................................................................................................... 296 ii
Page 1: THIS WHITE PAPER IS PUBLISHED JOINT
Page 5 and 6: Executive Summary (Rosa Affleck, To
Page 7 and 8: The rim of the wheel is a series of
Page 9 and 10: that ultimately, the strategic aspe
Page 11 and 12: Joe Hewitt (3.4) contributes “The
Page 13 and 14: 1. Stability and State Building (Cl
Page 15 and 16: esponsibility for states, and their
Page 17 and 18: 1.2 Catalyzing State Functionality:
Page 19 and 20: The program has addressed the proce
Page 21 and 22: and making large numbers of citizen
Page 23 and 24: 3 ISE continues to invite discussio
Page 25 and 26: albeit with variations, including f
Page 27 and 28: Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. (
Page 29 and 30: Turkey 21 68 98 224% 44% Labor Forc
Page 31 and 32: Migration is a response to differen
Page 33 and 34: 2.1.B. Demography and Security (Jac
Page 35 and 36: populations of 75 million or more.
Page 37 and 38: Canada, and Japan, decreasing birth
Page 39 and 40: 2. Increase Immigration. Secondly,
Page 41 and 42: States did not reach this level unt
Page 43 and 44: Finally, given the huge pressures f
Page 45 and 46: 2.1.C. Demographic Security (Elizab
Page 47 and 48: Figure 2.1.C-2. Risk of Civil Confl
Page 49 and 50: The influence of age structure on d
Page 51 and 52: countries with youthful populations
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This article attempts to address wh
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Banking Crises and Domestic Agitati
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esponsible for all refunds. Further
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Thus, the analyses in this article
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to afford and withstand a banking c
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conducted using GINI had an overall
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The models used for the analyses in
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We found some support for those who
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39 Carstens, Agustin, Daniel Hardy
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92 Rose, Richard, Doh C. Shin and N
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141 Jaccard, James, Robert Turrisi
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U.S. national security is defined a
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Linkages: Economics to U.S. Nationa
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2.3. Water 2.3.A. Water and Securit
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There are, however, river basins at
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efforts deteriorated, so too did so
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What Does This Mean to Water and Se
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Marshal Gibbons Ogden 1808: Gallati
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learn about how type 3 countries in
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typhoid, dysentery, hepatitis A and
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Population Changes. The world’s p
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Integrated Water Resources Manageme
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21 “Integrated Water Resources Ma
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2.3.C. Water Security and Scarcity:
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for expansion (Wegerich, 2009). Alt
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destabilize Western Afghanistan if
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Afghanistan explosively, slowing or
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Appendix 2. Figure 2. Central Afgha
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Food and Agriculture Organization (
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2.4. Changing of Climate and State
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Today’s Population Demographics T
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ecosystem of the massive Mississipp
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Table 2.4.A-2. The Mosquito Vectors
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odents, such as the US West and the
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The Globalization and Industrializa
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3. The earth is warming and the pac
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30. Raoult D, Fournier P-E, Fenocca
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Economics, Resources, and Developme
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Security concerns and issues do not
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3 Yalowitz, p. 13 4 Gautier, G. L.
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Stern addresses the impacts of glob
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Vulnerabilities to Climate Change a
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Considering the historical evidence
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change mitigation can be defined ge
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5 Wolf, A.T., A Kramer, A. Carius,
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Carpenter, S.R., P.L. Pingali, E.M.
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Energy 2.4.D. Energy, Africa, and C
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Researchers who have systematically
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another Rwanda happen. However, whe
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2.4.E. Energy: A National and Globa
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500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
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to combat environmental pollution.
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The first and most important step i
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impacts, and reduced environmental
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Recognizing the characteristics of
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Figure 2.5.B-9. A Snapshot of Selec
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more than 42 years. That is, the le
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Using average values from the liter
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27 Coal Power database, U.S. Depart
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2.5. Food 2.5.A. World Food Availab
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also are the source of clean air, w
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preserve critical wildlife habitats
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3 von Braun, J. (2007). “The worl
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2.5.B. Food Production in Arid Regi
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ut the impacts of leaching salts pr
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Sustainable use of treated waste wa
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2.6. Epidemics 2.6.A. Epidemics: A
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populations, migrants, prostitutes)
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egions. Initiatives that are purely
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2.6.B. Infectious Disease and Socia
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HIV in the early 1980s is likely th
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treatment are lost until an outbrea
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3. Social Science Modeling and Anal
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what in-sample analysis will allow.
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groups. 45 This examination of oper
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31 O'Brien, S. P. (2002). "Anticipa
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Figure 3.2.A-1. Simplified Cultural
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“Tragedy of the Commons,” in wh
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Anthropological Theories of Collaps
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exacerbate rather than resolve prob
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14 Handwerker, W. P. (1986). “The
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The following section presents a me
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mutually exclusive and exhaustive c
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For example, the national televisio
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Figure 3.4-1. Risk of Future Instab
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Infant Rates Militarization Neighbo
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Overview of Results Table 3.4-2 lis
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Table 3.4-3 lists the 17 countries
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een newly classified as partial dem
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In addition, the indicator for econ
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Table 3.4-5 - The Peace and Conflic
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armed conflict. The symbol indicat
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3.5. Perception is Reality: Stabili
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the Gallup World Poll. The World Po
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unstable areas, the most critical n
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3.6. Assessing the Stability of Int
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games of complete information and b
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4 Kahn, Herman (1962). Thinking Abo
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2. A partnership is not a relations
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is necessary is that the payoffs fo
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2. Implications for Setting up the
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how to be selective. We have alread
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10 Making Partnerships Work on the
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3.8. Process Query System as a Fram
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for associating evidence, events, o
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e instantiated to accommodate the n
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The table below describes examples
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16 S. Oh et al., A Scalable Real-Ti
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mid-1980s, Battelle introduced one
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increase or decrease the a priori p
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ather than being buried as so many
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state. American foreign policy woul
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14 E. J. Honton, G. S. Stacey, and
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community preparedness, but no docu
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Societal and Community Resiliency:
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1 World Conference on Disaster Risk
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Figure 4.1-1. The Multi-organizatio
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Table 4.1-1. Summary Social Science
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1 U Sudan Strategic Assessment TTPs
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Approach - Analyzing a Region as a
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situations, this analysis is perfor
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a rapid assessment. Gaining access
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Appendix A. Acronyms A2C2 ACH ACM A
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TCS ToL TRADOC TTPs UNO USAFA WHO W
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