Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

National policy development is likely to be complicated because of links between rural-urban
and international migration. Migration is generally a journey of hope for individuals wishing to
improve their economic status and enjoy new opportunities. Rapid economic and job growth in
urban areas of countries in the midst of rural-urban migration can provide opportunity for most
migrants within borders, as in China and Turkey. Without opportunities within borders for those
seeking opportunity, rural-urban migration can become international migration, as from Mexico
to the U.S.
Many migrants face difficult trade-offs between economic and other freedoms—should they
cross national borders for higher wages if they lose their right to engage in political activity to
advocate for change in the circumstances in which they live and work? The front doors for legal
immigrants open widest for those with the most education and skills, raising questions about
whether remittances are sufficient compensation for a new brain drain. Finally, many developing
countries that are richer than their neighbors are likely to learn the lessons of the 1960s, viz, that
there is nothing more permanent than temporary workers, and that recruiting or tolerating
migrant workers inevitably adds permanent residents to the population.
The world in 2008–09 is in the midst of the most severe recession in half a century, marked by
shrinking economies and rising unemployment. Just before the recession spread around the
world in 2008, the number of migrants and remittances were at record levels, and many analysts
expected this growth to continue. Flows of labor from poorer to richer countries have slowed and
in some cases reversed due to the recession, and it is not clear that migration and remittances will
resume their upward trajectory during the economic recovery.
The current recession could affect migration patterns quite differently than past recessions for
four major reasons.
First, this global recession began in industrial countries and spread to almost all countries,
limiting the ability of migrants to shift from lagging to boom areas, as they could when high oil
prices attracted migrants to the Gulf countries while doors closed to Western Europe.
Second, the effects of recession are most severe in cyclically and trade-sensitive sectors such as
construction to manufacturing that hire large numbers of migrant workers and may not recover
quickly. Some of the “migrant jobs” in manufacturing may not return in the recovery.
Third, most migrant-sending governments and development institutions have urged migrantreceiving
governments to minimize disruptions to labor migration by stopping recruitment or
forcing migrants to leave. (ILO DG Juan Somavia’s December 18, 2008 International Migrants
Day message asked migrant-receiving countries to “assess their labor market needs before
resorting to general layoffs of migrant workers.” 6 Employers rather than governments usually
make hiring and layoff decisions; the message presumably argues against policies such as that
adopted by the Malaysian government, which ordered migrants to be laid off before Malaysian
workers.) Before the recession, it was widely assumed that migration and remittances would
continue to increase. Current projections anticipate that remittances to developing countries will
decline, but far less than foreign direct investment, which is expected to fall sharply. Some
migrant-sending governments have appealed to migrant-receivers to continue accepting migrants
to avoid political unrest among citizens unable to find foreign jobs.
The fourth issue is immigration, with the issuance of about 1.5 million visas a year to people
allowed to settle and eventually naturalize in the traditional immigration countries of Australia,
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