Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

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10 World Population Prospects, 2006 revision. 11 UN, 2007, pxxi. 12 UN, 2007, pxxiii. 13 UN, 2007, pxxiii. 14 UN. 2007. World Population Prospects. 2006 revision (pxxiii). 15 UN, 2007, Vol 1. Medium variant. 16 ILO (2008, 11). 17 World, 2005. 18 http://laborsta.ilo.org/applv8/data/SSMe.html, p 120. 19 World, 1980-2020. 20 http://laborsta.ilo.org (48 % EAP after 2020). 21 Population data from UN, 2007, medium variant. 31
2.1.B. Demography and Security (Jack Goldstone) Author and Organization: Dr. Jack A. Goldstone, Professor, George Mason University Contact Information: jgoldsto@gmu.edu Five major demographic trends are likely to pose significant security challenges to the United States, Europe, Japan, and most other developed nations in the next two decades: 1. Disproportionate population growth in large and Muslim countries 2. Shrinking populations in Europe and the west Pacific Rim countries (Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan) 3. Sharply opposing age shifts between aging developed countries and youthful developing countries 4. Increased immigration from developing to developed countries 5. A shift in developing countries toward rapid and dominant urbanization The security and conflict problems caused by population changes in the coming decades are not mainly due to overall population growth creating shortages of resources (although, with climate change looming, we cannot discount that possibility in some vulnerable nations). Rather, population distortions—in which populations grow too young, or too fast, or too urbanized—will make it difficult for prevailing economic and administrative institutions to maintain stable socialization and labor force absorption, leading to risks of mass migrations, government breakdowns, and international and civil conflicts and a reduced ability of the United States and its major allies to respond to these challenges. 1,2,3 Big Emerging Markets and the World Economy Countries are growing today for two major reasons: high population growth rates and demographic momentum. In some countries, mainly in Africa and the Middle East (as well as a few in Latin America and South Asia), birth rates remain much higher than mortality rates, so their population growth rates remain high, at more than 2.0 percent per year. In these countries— which include Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guatemala, Iraq, Jordan, Nepal, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Yemen—the population is still doubling every generation (roughly every 30-35 years). 4 In other countries such as China, India, and Indonesia, population growth rates have recently dropped substantially; in percentage terms, they are growing more slowly than they have in the past. 5 However, these countries already have such a large cohort of women of childbearing age that their populations continue to add significant numbers each year. In China, for example, although most couples have fewer than two children, zero population growth is still several decades away. While current growth rates have sunk to around 0.6 percent per year, China will add nearly 80 million people during each of the next two decades before its population peaks. India, though not quite as large as China today, is growing twice as fast, at 1.4 percent per year, and will add roughly 135 million people per decade for the next two decades. Even with a continued decline in their birth rates, these two countries alone are expected to add roughly 400 million people by 2025—more than today’s entire populations of the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Belgium combined. 32
Page 1 and 2: THIS WHITE PAPER IS PUBLISHED JOINT
Page 3 and 4: 2.6.B. Infectious Disease and Socia
Page 5 and 6: Executive Summary (Rosa Affleck, To
Page 7 and 8: The rim of the wheel is a series of
Page 9 and 10: that ultimately, the strategic aspe
Page 11 and 12: Joe Hewitt (3.4) contributes “The
Page 13 and 14: 1. Stability and State Building (Cl
Page 15 and 16: esponsibility for states, and their
Page 17 and 18: 1.2 Catalyzing State Functionality:
Page 19 and 20: The program has addressed the proce
Page 21 and 22: and making large numbers of citizen
Page 23 and 24: 3 ISE continues to invite discussio
Page 25 and 26: albeit with variations, including f
Page 27 and 28: Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. (
Page 29 and 30: Turkey 21 68 98 224% 44% Labor Forc
Page 31: Migration is a response to differen
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Page 37 and 38: Canada, and Japan, decreasing birth
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Page 41 and 42: States did not reach this level unt
Page 43 and 44: Finally, given the huge pressures f
Page 45 and 46: 2.1.C. Demographic Security (Elizab
Page 47 and 48: Figure 2.1.C-2. Risk of Civil Confl
Page 49 and 50: The influence of age structure on d
Page 51 and 52: countries with youthful populations
Page 53 and 54: This article attempts to address wh
Page 55 and 56: Banking Crises and Domestic Agitati
Page 57 and 58: esponsible for all refunds. Further
Page 59 and 60: Thus, the analyses in this article
Page 61 and 62: to afford and withstand a banking c
Page 63 and 64: conducted using GINI had an overall
Page 65 and 66: The models used for the analyses in
Page 67 and 68: We found some support for those who
Page 69 and 70: 39 Carstens, Agustin, Daniel Hardy
Page 71 and 72: 92 Rose, Richard, Doh C. Shin and N
Page 73 and 74: 141 Jaccard, James, Robert Turrisi
Page 75 and 76: U.S. national security is defined a
Page 77 and 78: Linkages: Economics to U.S. Nationa
Page 79 and 80: 2.3. Water 2.3.A. Water and Securit
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efforts deteriorated, so too did so
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What Does This Mean to Water and Se
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Marshal Gibbons Ogden 1808: Gallati
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learn about how type 3 countries in
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typhoid, dysentery, hepatitis A and
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Population Changes. The world’s p
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Integrated Water Resources Manageme
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21 “Integrated Water Resources Ma
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2.3.C. Water Security and Scarcity:
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for expansion (Wegerich, 2009). Alt
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destabilize Western Afghanistan if
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Afghanistan explosively, slowing or
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Appendix 2. Figure 2. Central Afgha
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Food and Agriculture Organization (
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2.4. Changing of Climate and State
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Today’s Population Demographics T
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ecosystem of the massive Mississipp
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Table 2.4.A-2. The Mosquito Vectors
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odents, such as the US West and the
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The Globalization and Industrializa
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3. The earth is warming and the pac
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30. Raoult D, Fournier P-E, Fenocca
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Economics, Resources, and Developme
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Security concerns and issues do not
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3 Yalowitz, p. 13 4 Gautier, G. L.
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Stern addresses the impacts of glob
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Vulnerabilities to Climate Change a
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Considering the historical evidence
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change mitigation can be defined ge
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5 Wolf, A.T., A Kramer, A. Carius,
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Carpenter, S.R., P.L. Pingali, E.M.
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Energy 2.4.D. Energy, Africa, and C
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Researchers who have systematically
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another Rwanda happen. However, whe
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2.4.E. Energy: A National and Globa
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500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
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to combat environmental pollution.
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The first and most important step i
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impacts, and reduced environmental
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Recognizing the characteristics of
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Figure 2.5.B-9. A Snapshot of Selec
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more than 42 years. That is, the le
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Using average values from the liter
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27 Coal Power database, U.S. Depart
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2.5. Food 2.5.A. World Food Availab
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also are the source of clean air, w
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preserve critical wildlife habitats
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3 von Braun, J. (2007). “The worl
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2.5.B. Food Production in Arid Regi
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ut the impacts of leaching salts pr
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Sustainable use of treated waste wa
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2.6. Epidemics 2.6.A. Epidemics: A
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populations, migrants, prostitutes)
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egions. Initiatives that are purely
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2.6.B. Infectious Disease and Socia
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HIV in the early 1980s is likely th
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treatment are lost until an outbrea
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3. Social Science Modeling and Anal
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what in-sample analysis will allow.
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groups. 45 This examination of oper
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31 O'Brien, S. P. (2002). "Anticipa
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Figure 3.2.A-1. Simplified Cultural
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“Tragedy of the Commons,” in wh
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Anthropological Theories of Collaps
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exacerbate rather than resolve prob
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14 Handwerker, W. P. (1986). “The
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The following section presents a me
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mutually exclusive and exhaustive c
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For example, the national televisio
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Figure 3.4-1. Risk of Future Instab
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Infant Rates Militarization Neighbo
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Overview of Results Table 3.4-2 lis
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Table 3.4-3 lists the 17 countries
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een newly classified as partial dem
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In addition, the indicator for econ
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Table 3.4-5 - The Peace and Conflic
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armed conflict. The symbol indicat
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3.5. Perception is Reality: Stabili
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the Gallup World Poll. The World Po
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unstable areas, the most critical n
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3.6. Assessing the Stability of Int
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games of complete information and b
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4 Kahn, Herman (1962). Thinking Abo
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2. A partnership is not a relations
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is necessary is that the payoffs fo
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2. Implications for Setting up the
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how to be selective. We have alread
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10 Making Partnerships Work on the
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3.8. Process Query System as a Fram
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for associating evidence, events, o
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e instantiated to accommodate the n
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The table below describes examples
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16 S. Oh et al., A Scalable Real-Ti
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mid-1980s, Battelle introduced one
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increase or decrease the a priori p
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ather than being buried as so many
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state. American foreign policy woul
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14 E. J. Honton, G. S. Stacey, and
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community preparedness, but no docu
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Societal and Community Resiliency:
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1 World Conference on Disaster Risk
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Figure 4.1-1. The Multi-organizatio
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Table 4.1-1. Summary Social Science
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1 U Sudan Strategic Assessment TTPs
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Approach - Analyzing a Region as a
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situations, this analysis is perfor
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a rapid assessment. Gaining access
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Appendix A. Acronyms A2C2 ACH ACM A
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TCS ToL TRADOC TTPs UNO USAFA WHO W
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