Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

consequences of crisis on regional stability can help minimize the threat of instability. Through
the analysis of multiple social science theories, research methods, and established quantitative
and statistical analysis techniques, this white paper, Perspectives on Political and Social
Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises - A Social Science Context, provides a significant
step along the path to resolving the complex problems critical to the future security of the U.S.
This edited volume, consisting of short contributions (5-7 pages each), will describe definitions
of stability, will examine assessment approaches, and will extend to encompass strategies for
tailored assessment and planning.
Clare Lockhart (Section 1) addresses the significance of “Stability and State Building.” This
paper describes how functioning states are a vital piece of global architecture and that as such
they not only provide critical resistance to a variety of threats, but they also contribute to the
collective global goals and stability in the 21 st century.
Philip Martin of UC-Davis (2.1.A) reviews International Migration. The number of international
migrants, defined by the UN as persons outside their country of origin a year or more, for any
reason and in any legal status, more than doubled between 1990 and 2010. Current default policy
is to manage what is often seen as out-of-control migration and by adjusting the rights of
migrants, leading to conflicts over human rights. Martin’s paper analyzes long-term factors
affecting migration patterns, including aging in industrial countries, rural-urban migration that
spills over national borders, and the migration infrastructure of agents and networks that moves
people.
Jack Goldstone (2.1.B) continues this theme with “Demography and Security,” in which he
discusses the five major demographic trends likely to pose significant security challenges to the
majority of developed nations in the next two decades. He notes that problems will be caused not
by the overall population growth, but by the population distortions, in which populations grow
too young or too fast, or become too urbanized.
In “Demographic Security,” Elizabeth Leahy Madsen (2.1C) reviews findings regarding
population and two security issues—outbreaks of civil conflict and level of democratic
governance—at the global scale. The theme of her paper is that population influences security
and development, and it is an important underlying variable in global stability because of its
interactions with other factors.
David Richards and Ronald Gelleny (2.2.A) address the relationship between banking crises and
domestic agitation/internal conflict in “Banking Crises, Collective Protest and Rebellion.” They
examine a dataset of 125 countries for the years 1981 to 2000 and find banking crises to be
systematically associated with greater levels of collective protest activities such as riots, antigovernment
demonstrations, and strikes.
An overview of work done at the Joint Staff J-5 is outlined by Peter Steen (2.2.B) in “Economics
and Political Instability within the Global Economic Crisis.” This paper provides a strategic
national-level understanding of the ongoing global economic crisis, as well as investigates the
relationship between economics and political instability within that context.
Jerome Delli Priscoli (2.3.A) of the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers discusses the role of water and
its relationship to international stability with “Water & Security: Cause War or Help Community
Building.” He posits that the water and security debate is driven by our notions of scarcity, and
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