Scientific Underpinnings of - START - National Consortium for the ...

iggest obstacles is the growing antagonism between the West and much of the Muslim world.
The way forward for the West lies in greater openness and integration, increased investment in
growth abroad, better integration of immigrant communities, and reduced barriers to emigration
from fast-growing but youthful societies. None of this is possible with the high levels of fear,
mistrust, and antagonism between the West and populations of many of the largest and fastest
growing countries of the world. We must reach the degree of cooperation necessary to respond to
the global population changes already in place for the next half-century. Much more than
terrorism, these trends will affect the long-term prosperity of the developed but stagnating and
rapidly aging populations of the West, as well as the fast-growing and extremely youthful
population of the developing and largely Muslim nations.
An Increasingly Urban World
A hallmark of higher-income countries and regions throughout history has been the rise of large
cities, from Xi’an to Rome to Constantinople (Istanbul) to Edo to London. Most low- and
middle-income countries are now going through a transition from a situation in which most
families were rural farm-producing families to a condition in which most families are urban
consuming families. This creates new pressures on education, sanitation, energy supply,
transportation, food storage, and food distribution. These pressures are greater in cities, and these
demands fall chiefly on governments which can face opposition and even violence in the absence
of jobs and adequate food supplies. Today, it is not so much the number of people per se, but the
changing consumption and distribution patterns of populations (much of it linked to rising
incomes and urbanization) that is putting pressure on global food and energy supplies.
For less-developed regions as a whole, the United Nations projects the percentage of urban
population will increase from 42.7% in 2005 to 56% by 2030 and 67% by 2050. That is a fifty
percent increase in the urban percentage, but since this increase is occurring in fast-growing
countries, the total urban population is projected to more than double by mid-century. That
projection entails the incredible figure of three billion additional urban residents in the less
developed countries, added to the 2.3 billion who were there in 2005.
In sub-Saharan Africa, urbanization will be even more rapid, with the urban percentage expected
to almost double, from 35% in 2005 to 67% in 2050, bringing about a tripling in total urban
population from roughly 300 million today to over 1 billion by mid-century. In China and India,
urban populations are also expected to grow explosively to 2050, increasing to 73% of total
population in China (from roughly 40%) today and rising to 55% of total population in India
(from under 30% today). Together, these two mega-populations are projected to increase their
urban populations by over one billion people. 21
While these projections may not be realized, it is vital to recognize that the “normal” urban
percentage for developed countries is about 75% today, and it is logical to expect low- and
middle-income countries to move toward this figure as they develop.
Since increasing employment and the efficiency of agriculture generally entails moving people
off the land and into urban centers, it is reasonable to treat these projections as likely rather than
as grim or abnormal.
Still, these levels of urbanization are likely to be reached at much lower levels of per capita
income in most of the world than has been the case for the developed nations today. Today’s
more developed regions did not attain urbanization levels of 65% until 1970, and the United
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