Chapter 2. Progress towards the EFA goals - Unesco

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0 1 2 0 CHAPTER 2 Education for All Global Monitoring Report Youth aged 15 to 24 make up one-quarter of the world’s population but almost half of the unemployed school years. People lacking these foundations are not well placed to develop the type of flexible problem-solving capabilities needed to underpin more specialized learning. For countries where much of the youth population either does not reach secondary school or lacks basic literacy and numeracy, technical and vocational education in secondary school can only have limited success as a national skills development strategy. It may make little sense to rapidly scale up investment in technical and vocational education in countries enrolling only a small proportion of the secondary school age group. Directing resources towards improving access and the quality of education in core subjects is likely to prove far more effective and equitable (Lauglo and Maclean, 2005). Youth unemployment reveals the skills gap The broad aim of technical and vocational education is to equip young people and adults with the skills and knowledge they need to cross the bridge from school to work. The economic crisis has made that crossing even more hazardous. Young people who fail to make the transition often face the prospect of long-term unemployment and social marginalization, and run a higher risk of being drawn into illicit activities (Adams, 2008; Brewer, 2004). While the picture varies by region, governments’ records in tackling youth unemployment over the past decade have been disappointing. With global unemployment rising sharply in 2009, the record could deteriorate further as young people are hit hardest by the job crisis. Pre-crisis trends were not encouraging Education and demographic trends, coupled with rapid economic growth before the 2008 economic downturn, might have been expected to reduce youth unemployment, with the average number of years spent in school increasing and the youth share in the working age population declining in all regions, with the notable exception of sub-Saharan Africa. Instead, the International Labour Organization (ILO) reported a 13% rise in youth unemployment, from 63 million in 1996 to 71 million in 2007. Labour market demand is one factor behind this trend. Economic growth has not generated employment on the scale that might have been anticipated. At the same time, rising youth unemployment during a period of sustained economic expansion points to a mismatch between skills acquired in education and labour market demand. The upshot is that young people bear the brunt of unemployment. Before the crisis, the global youth unemployment rate stood at 12%, or around three times the adult unemployment rate (ILO, 2008a). In every region, youth unemployment rates are higher than those for older workers. Youth aged 15 to 24 make up one-quarter of the world’s population but almost half of the unemployed. Young people are now in the front line of the global economic downturn. Recent estimates suggest that world unemployment could be 39 million higher by the end of 2009, compared with 2007, and that youth unemployment may rise by between 5 million and 17.7 million. The youth unemployment rate is projected to increase from around 12% in 2008 to between 14% and 15% in 2009 (CINTERFOR/ILO, 2009). Employers are more prone to dismiss young workers – especially unskilled young women – because youth tend to have the least secure employment conditions and are often not covered by labour regulations (CINTERFOR/ILO, 2009). Youth unemployment patterns vary across the developing regions (Figure 2.25). The ILO reports that the Middle East and North Africa have the highest unemployment rates, with about one-fifth of 15- to 24-year-olds unemployed. In Egypt, youth account for more than 60% of the unemployed. Gender discrimination, both in terms of job segmentation and wages, is deeply entrenched in Arab States’ labour markets (Salehi-Isfahani and Dhillon, 2008). In Egypt, fewer than one-quarter of women aged 15 to 29 are economically active – one-third the male rate. The transition from school to work is also more difficult for girls, with fewer than 25% of young women finding work within five years (Assad and Barsoum, 2007). Employer discrimination, early marriage and claims on the labour of women at home all reinforce gender disadvantage in labour markets. Demography and poverty combine to leave sub- Saharan Africa facing particularly stark challenges in youth employment. The region’s share of the world’s youth population, currently about 17%, will be some 25% by 2025. Almost two-thirds of the population is under 25. The transition from school to work is enormously difficult for this growing population. Every year between 7 million and 10 million young Africans enter labour markets characterized by high unemployment, low 82
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EFA GOALS Youth and adult skills — expanding opportunities in the new global economy productivity, chronic insecurity and poverty-level incomes (Garcia and Fares, 2008). Figure 2.25: Gender inequalities reinforce high levels of youth unemployment Youth unemployment rates by region* and gender, 2007 Unemployment is just one of the problems young people encounter as they seek to enter the workforce. Many face protracted delays in securing their first jobs. In much of the Middle East and North Africa, the average duration of unemployment for first-time job seekers is measured in years rather than months. In sub- Saharan African countries including Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia, young people face about five years of reported inactivity before finding work (Garcia and Fares, 2008). Youth unemployment rates (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 Female Average Male Education is not an automatic panacea for delayed employment. In many Arab states, young people with secondary and tertiary education face longer periods of unemployment than their peers with only basic education. Similarly, in several countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Burundi, Cameroon, Kenya and Nigeria, youth with secondary and tertiary education have higher rates of unemployment than those with lower levels of attainment (Fares et al., 2005; Garcia and Fares, 2008). Comparisons across developing regions have to be made with caution. Gender parity in reported youth unemployment in South Asia and sub- Saharan Africa does not imply gender equity in labour markets. In both regions, many young women provide unpaid labour in the household and do not participate in paid employment. 23 Similarly, lower levels of youth unemployment do not necessarily correspond to higher levels of decent employment. Poverty forces millions of people into insecure, low-wage jobs in the informal sector. The ILO estimates that 300 million young people are ‘working poor’ who live on less than US$2 a day (CINTERFOR/ILO, 2009). Developed countries also face acute problems Economic recession in OECD countries is pushing unemployment to record levels. In developed countries as a group, unemployment is projected to peak at 7.3% in 2010, compared with 5.5% in 2007 (OECD, 2009d). The scenario could worsen if economic recovery is delayed. As in developing regions, the economic downturn in rich countries comes against a discouraging backdrop for youth employment (Figure 2.26). Despite strong economic growth from 1997 to 2007, the youth unemployment rate in OECD countries 5 0 World East Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America/ Caribbean South-East Asia and the Pacific * Regions presented are those used by the ILO, which differ to some extent from the EFA regions. Sources: ILO (2008b); OECD (2009f). Figure 2.26: In most OECD countries, youth face greater risk of unemployment Youth and adult unemployment rates, selected OECD countries, 2008 Norway Denmark Rep. of Korea Austria Australia Japan United Kingdom Sweden United States Canada OECD Italy France Greece Germany Turkey Spain Youth (15 to 24) Adult (25 to 54) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Unemployment rates (%) Source: OECD (2009f). Middle East North Africa In Burundi, Cameroon, Kenya and Nigeria, youth with secondary and tertiary education have higher rates of unemployment than those with lower levels of attainment 23. In South Asia, the ILO reports just 22% of female youth in employment compared with 58% of male youth. 83
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