Untitled - HEP Grupa

Slika 16
Ekonomski tijek ∑
kumulativni neto
primitci
Figure 16
Economic flow ∑
cumulative net
revenues
Frekvencija / Frequency
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
14 742 237 15 964 930 17 187 623 18 410 315 19 633 008
(HRK)
Slika 17
Analiza osjetljivosti
− kumulativni neto
primitci iz ekonomskog
tijeka
Figure 17
Sensitivity analysis −
cumulative net revenues
from the economic flow
Broj sati rada /
Number of hours of operation
Pogon i odræavanje /
Operation and maintenance
Cijena elektriËne energije (prvih 12 godina) /
Price of electrical energy (first 12 years)
-30,0 % -10,0 % 10,0 % 30,0 % 50,0 %
Investicija u izgradnju /
Investment in construction
Cijena elektriËne energije (od 12 ∑ 20 godine) /
Price of electrical energy (from the12 th to the 20 th year)
Udio vlastitih sredstava /
Percentage of equity capital
Kamate/Interkalarna stopa /
Interest/compounded rate
Raspon vrijednosti Ëiste sadaπnje vrijednosti projekta
prikazuje slika 18. Cijeli raspon je od − 1 983 184
HRK do 2 315 638 HRK, sa srednjom vrijednoπÊu
119 391 HRK. ©irina raspona je 4 298 822
HRK, a standardna devijacija 667 358 HRK.
PodruËje 80 % pouzdanosti je od − 743 831 HRK
do 993 674 HRK. Rezultat provedene analize
osjetljivosti za tu varijablu prikazuje slika 19.
The range of the values of the net present value of
the project is presented in Figure 18. The entire
range is from − 1 983 184 HRK to 2 315 638 HRK,
with an average value of 119 391 HRK. The width
of the range is 4 298 822 HRK, and the standard
deviation is 667 358 HRK. The range of 80 %
reliability is from − 743 831 HRK to 993 674 HRK.
The results of the sensitivity analysis performed for
this variable are presented in Figure 19.
LugariÊ, L., Krajcar, S., ∆urkoviÊ, A., Analiza financijskog rizika u vrednovanju projekata..., Energija, god. 56(2007), br. 3., str. 346∑373
LugariÊ, L., Krajcar, S., ∆urkoviÊ, A., Risk Analysis Methodologies for the Financial Evaluation..., Energija, vol. 56(2007), No. 3, pp. 346∑373
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