Untitled - HEP Grupa

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elektriËne energije te osiguranje povoljnih uvjeta financiranja izgradnje. Investicija u izgradnju vjetroelektrane je kapitalno intenzivan projekt. Kako bi investitor poveÊao sigurnost svoje investicije, potreban je brz i uËinkovit sustav analize investicijskih rizika projekta. To se podjednako odnosi i na kreditora i na onoga tko razvija projekt. Dobra procjena rizika moæe ukazati na slabosti prijedloga i na njihovo pravodobno otklanjanje. U numeriËkom modeliranju rizika, svaki se rizik transformira u razdiobu vjerojatnosti moguÊih ishoda. Rezultati analize su vrijednosti i grafikoni koji pruæaju toËnu informaciju o koliËini rizika koji se preuzima. Najosjetljiviji dio modela je odreappleivanje ulaznih varijabli i njihove razdiobe. U ovom radu to je uËinjeno koriπtenjem financijskih parametara dostupnih iz iskustava unutar Hrvatske i EU. Temeljem provedene analize na primjeru vjetroelektrane od 18 MW na podruËju Benkovca moæe se zakljuËiti: − − vjetroelektrana koja je uzeta kao primjer financijski je isplativ projekt, iako s umjerenom profitabilnoπÊu, analiza osjetljivosti pokazuje da su najutjecajniji rizici povezani s brojem sati rada (πto je u skladu s nalazima drugih studija isplativosti ovog tipa investicije u EU), a da cijeni izgradnje vjetroelektrane i troπkovima pogona i odræavanja treba posvetiti pozornost. Nadalje se moæe ustvrditi da je prezentirani model fleksibilan jer omoguÊuje promjene u ulaznim razdiobama vjerojatnosti te pruæa moguÊnost dodavanja novih varijabli (razni eskalatori, leasing, i sl.). Model je uz neznatne dorade moguÊe primijeniti i na druge projekte obnovljivih izvora. of all, the finding of free locations with the suitable wind strength, the selection of suitable equipment (from the standpoint of the electrical energy system and the speed and quantity of the wind), the selection of a connection point to the electrical energy system, entry into long-term contract on the sale of electrical energy and securing favorable conditions for financing construction. Investment in the construction of wind power plant is a capital intensive project. In order for the investor to increase the safety of his investment, a rapid and effective system for the analysis of the investment risks of the project is necessary. This equally applies to the creditor and the party who develops the project. Good risk assessment can point out the weaknesses of a proposal, facilitating their elimination in time. In numerical risk modeling, each risk is transformed into the probability distribution of possible results. The results of analysis are values and graphs that provide precise information on the amount of risk being undertaken. The most sensitive part of a model is the determination of the input variables and their distribution. In the article, this was performed using financial parameters available from experience within Croatia and the EU. Based upon analysis performed on the example of the wind power plant of 18 MW in the territory of Benkovac, the following may be concluded: − − the wind power plant that is taken as an example is a financially profitable project, although with moderate profitability, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the most influential risks are connected with the number of hours of operation (which is in agreement with the findings of other profitability studies of this type of investment in the EU), and that the cost of the construction of a wind power plant and the operation and maintenance costs require attention. Furthermore, it can be stated that the model presented is flexible because it permits changes in the input distribution probabilities and the addition of new variables (various escalators, leasing etc.). With minor adjustments, the model can also be applied to other projects involving renewable energy sources. LugariÊ, L., Krajcar, S., ∆urkoviÊ, A., Analiza financijskog rizika u vrednovanju projekata..., Energija, god. 56(2007), br. 3., str. 346∑373 LugariÊ, L., Krajcar, S., ∆urkoviÊ, A., Risk Analysis Methodologies for the Financial Evaluation..., Energija, vol. 56(2007), No. 3, pp. 346∑373 372
LITERATURA / REFERENCES [1] Directive 2005/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 January 2006 concerning measures to safeguard security of electricity supply and infrastructure investment, 2005 [2] EWEA: Wind Energy − The Facts, 2003 (http://www.ewea.org/index.php?id=91) [3] Eurostat: Europe in figures, Eurostat yearbook 2006-07, February 2007 (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu) [4] EWEA: Strategic Overview of the Wind Energy Sector, 10 January 2007 (http://www.ewea.org/index.php?id=194) [5] Tarifni sustav za proizvodnju elektriËne energije iz obnovljivih izvora i kogeneracije, Narodne novine broj 33/2007 [6] Uredba o naknadama za poticanje proizvodnje elektriËne energije iz obnovljivih izvora energije i kogeneracije , Narodne novine broj 33/2007 [7] Uredba o minimalnom udjelu elektriËne energije proizvedene iz obnovljivih izvora i kogeneracije Ëija se proizvodnja potiËe, Narodne novine broj 33/2007 [8] Enwind, Program koriπtenja energije vjetra, nove spoznaje i provedba, Energetski institut Hrvoje Poæar, Zagreb, prosinac 2001. [9] Enwind, Program koriπtenja energije vjetra, prethodni rezultati i buduÊe aktivnosti, Energetski institut Hrvoje Poæar, Zagreb, travanj 1998. [10] LABUDOVI∆, B., Obnovljivi izvori energije, Energetika marketing, Zagreb, 2002. [11] Windtest, Kaiser-Wilhem-Koog GmbH, Windpotentialmessung, 2007, (http://www.windtest.de) [12] Windtest, Kaiser-Wilhem-Koog GmbH, Windpotential und Energieertragsberechnung, 2007, (http://www.windtest.de) [13] Windtest, Kaiser-Wilhem-Koog GmbH, Vermessung des Leistungverhaltens von WEA und Windparks, 2007, (http://www.windtest.de) [14] Vestas, Produktbeschreibung V90 − 3.0 MW, OptiSpeedTM Windenergieanalage, 2007, (http://www.vestas.com) [15] Vestas, Produktbeschreibung V90 − 2.0 MW, OptiSpeedTM Windenergieanalage, 2007, (http://www.vestas.com) [16] Bundesverband WindEnergie e.v, Fakten zur Windenergie (Von A bis Z), Berlin, 2005 [17] NORDEX N90/2500 LS − Annual energy yield, 2007, (http://www.nordex-online.com) [18] Power Curve NORDEX N90/2500 LS, 2007, (http://www.nordex-online.com) [19] Nordex Service Suite − Das mehrstufige Service, Programmm für alle Windenergieanlagen der Nordex Gruppe, 2007, (http://www.nordex-online.com) [20] ENERCON, Technical specifications, Service and Maintenance, Tower and foundation, Grid connection, System control, 2007, (http://www.enercon.de) [21] International Organization for Standardization (ISO), Risk management vocabulary: guidelines for use in standards, ISO/IEC Guide 73:2002 definition 3.1.1, first edition, Geneva, 2002 [22] International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), IEC 60300-3-9 Ed. 2.0: Dependability management − Part 3-9: Application guide − Risk analysis of technological systems, first edition, Geneva, 2006 [23] CLEIJNE, H., RUIJGROK, W., Modelling Risks of Renewable Energy Investments, Report of the Green-X Project within the 5 th framework programme of the EC, KEMA, Netherlands, July 2004 [24] TAPIERO, C., Risk and Financial Management: Mathematical and Computational Methods, John Wiley & Sons, June 2004 [25] MUÆINI∆, F., Analiza i modeliranje rizika za projekte vjetroelektrana, magistarski rad, Fakultet elektrotehnike i raËunarstva, Zagreb, 2007. [26] Crystal Ball Professional 7.2.2, Denver, Colorado: Decisioneering Inc. [27] Ammonit Gesellschaft für Messtechnik GmbH, Windmessung für eine korrekte Energieprognose, 2007 [28] FARAGÓ, T., KATZ R.W., Extremes and Design Values in Climatology, WMO/TD ∑ No. 386 WCAP ∑ 14, 1990 [29] GAJI∆-»APKA, M., PER»EC-TADI∆, M., PATAR»I∆, M., Digitalna godiπnja oborinska karta Hrvatske, Hrvatski meteoroloπki Ëasopis 38, 2003. [30] GUMBEL, E.J., Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press, New York, 1958. [31] JENKINSON, A. F.: The Frequency Distribution of the Annual Maximum (or Minimum) Values of Meteorological Elements, Quartly Journal of the Royal Meteorogical Society 87, John Wiley & Sons, 1955 [32] TROEN, I., PETERSEN, E. L.: The European Wind Atlas, Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Association Conference and Exibition, Rome, 1986 [33] ZANINOVI∆, K., SRNEC, L., PER»EC-TADI∆, M., Digitalna godiπnja temperaturna karta Hrvatske, Hrvatski meteoroloπki Ëasopis 39, 2004. [34] GORENC, V., RjeËnik trgovaËkog prava, Masmedia, Zagreb, 1997. [35] ARCHER, C., JACOBSON, L., MARK Z., Evaluation of Global Wind Power, Journal of Geophysical Research ∑ Atmospheres, Washington, 2005 Uredniπtvo primilo rukopis: 2007-05-25 PrihvaÊeno: 2007-06-04 Manuscript received on: 2007-05-25 Accepted on: 2007-06-04 373 LugariÊ, L., Krajcar, S., ∆urkoviÊ, A., Analiza financijskog rizika u vrednovanju projekata..., Energija, god. 56(2007), br. 3., str. 346∑373 LugariÊ, L., Krajcar, S., ∆urkoviÊ, A., Risk Analysis Methodologies for the Financial Evaluation..., Energija, vol. 56(2007), No. 3, pp. 346∑373
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03/07 ENERGIJA IZDAVA» Hrvatska el
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UVOD INTRODUCTION Dragi Ëitatelji,
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ENERGETSKA POLITIKA U EUROPI I NJEN
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pojedinaËno. Ujedno se naznaËuju
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− − Ëavaju razvoj integriranih
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− − sigurnosti opskrbe plinom i
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Tablica 1 ∑ Prepreke na putu inte
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Tablica 3 prikazuje sadaπnje stanj
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Tehnologija proizvodnje energije iz
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Portfelj elektrana diljem Europe st
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8 ENERGETSKA POLITIKA U HRVATSKOJ
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Projekt energetske uËinkovitosti p
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− srednjoroËno (preko tri godine
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izloæene u poglavlju 6. To nisu kr
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1 UVOD Energetski sektor Crne Gore
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Identifikacija postojeÊeg stanja u
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− − − − osiguranje poticajn
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Tablica 2 prikazuje strukturu ukupn
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Tablica 4 − Struktura izvora i po
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Pretpostavljeni prosjeËni godiπnj
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4.2 HE Piva HE Piva je akumulacijsk
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Za proraËun energetskog potencijal
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− − − − MoraËa: akumulacij
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uraËunat je u procjene tehniËki i
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Rezerve ugljena u pljevaljskom podr
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Eksploatacijske rezerve u obliænje
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Pretpostavljeni su sljedeÊi parame
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5.5.1 Scenarij N-1 Scenarij N-1 def
Page 60 and 61: Udio uvoza u pokrivanju potroπnje
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Page 64 and 65: zemljama iz regije, socijalni probl
Page 66: JAVNA POTPORA RAZVITKU OBNOVLJIVIH
Page 69 and 70: Ipak, mora se naglasiti, dok su tr
Page 71 and 72: S gospodarskog stajaliπta logika n
Page 73 and 74: Glede obnovljivih izvora energije m
Page 75 and 76: Obnovljivi izvori energije i uπted
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Page 79 and 80: jasno odrediti mjere koje kani podu
Page 81 and 82: minimalnom postavljenom cilju kad j
Page 83 and 84: LITERATURA / REFERENCES [1] PELTZMA
Page 86 and 87: 1 UVOD RastuÊa potroπnja elektri
Page 88 and 89: i projektanti, ali su ciljana skupi
Page 90 and 91: − elektriËna oprema ugraappleena
Page 92 and 93: kombinacija vjerojatnosti dogaapple
Page 94 and 95: 3.2.1 Ulazne varijable Za proraËun
Page 96 and 97: Tablica 2 − Prikaz razdioba vjero
Page 98 and 99: Tablica 3 − Glavni, poËetni dio
Page 100 and 101: Slika 5 RaËun dobiti i gubitka ∑
Page 102 and 103: Slika 8 PokriÊe anuiteta ∑ prika
Page 104 and 105: Raspon vrijednosti dobiti poslije p
Page 106 and 107: Slika 16 Ekonomski tijek ∑ kumula
Page 108 and 109: Slika 20 Interna stopa rentabilnost
Page 112: RA»UNANJE SREDNJE I EFEKTIVNE VRIJ
Page 115 and 116: Ako se radi o periodiËnom valnom o
Page 117 and 118: a) U u R U iz b) U u U m -U m π 2
Page 119 and 120: Ako se valni oblik sastoji od zbroj
Page 121 and 122: (18) KonaËno se dobije da je: What
Page 123 and 124: (27) raËuna se ovako: and is calcu
Page 125 and 126: Tjemeni faktor karakterizira izobli
Page 127: MANUSCRIPTS 1. Energija journal pub
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