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FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES ANNUAL REPORT APRIL 2011 BAKU STOCK EXCHANGE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS Economic Performance Despite the global financial crisis and fall in international oil prices from their 2008 highs, growth slipped only a little to 9.3% in 2009, from 10.8% in 2008. Helped by higher oil prices in the second half of 2009 and by increased production of hydrocarbons from the Caspian Sea, the oil and gas sector (constituting 55% of GDP and 95% of total export revenue) remained the major driver of growth. Overall, non-oil GDP growth at 3.2% of GDP in 2009 was much lower than its 15.7% growth in 2008, as activity was depressed by an uncertain economic outlook that restrained domestic demand and curtailed exports. On the demand side, higher public investment, which rose to 21% of GDP in 2009, supported growth, reflecting government moves to counter the impact of the global crisis. That impact was, however, seen in falling private sector investment, which came down to only 6% of GDP in 2009. Lower prices constrained investment in the oil sector, which consequently accounted for a smaller proportion of total investment in 2009 than it did in 2008. Higher public investment was partly financed by the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ), to which a large part of the government’s oil receipts are channeled. SOFAZ has become an important source of financing for important socioeconomic and investment projects. With falling international commodity prices, the consumer price index rose by only 1.5% in 2009, versus 20.8% in 2008. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s heavy market intervention maintained a stable exchange rate to the dollar in 2009 (at AZN 0.8/$1), preventing a depreciation that would have caused inflation pressure and raised debtservicing costs for businesses that have sizable foreign-currency loans. Stable civil service salaries and economic uncertainty helped bring down inflation pressure from the demand side. Falling inflation allowed the central bank to relax monetary policy through phased but steep reductions in the refinancing rate, which ultimately fell to only 2% in 2009 from a high of 15% in 2008. In addition, the central bank markedly lowered banking sector reserve requirements to 0.5% in March 2009 from 12%. Banking sector resilience grew as a result of monetary policy measures of the central bank. Despite slow growth, banks maintained strong loan portfolios, and the proportion of overdue loans was kept in check, at 4.5% of the total. As oil export income fell due to sliding international prices, the trade account is estimated to have posted a surplus of only $14.6 billion, down from $23.0 billion in 2008. This drop was mitigated by an estimated $1.1 billion fall in imports, largely because of lower food prices and a decline in oil companies’ demand for investment machinery. Gross international reserves contracted by $1.1 billion to $5.4 billion at end-December 2009. This decline, in a context of a current account surplus, reflected a buildup in SOFAZ investment assets abroad. External debt rose slightly to $3.4 billion (8.8% of GDP) in 2009 from $3.0 billion a year earlier. Azerbaijan’s debt at these levels remains low and there are no major risks to debt servicing in view of the $14.9 billion SOFAZ sovereign fund and the $5.4 billion in foreign reserves. Economic Prospects The focus of monetary policy in 2010 remains on keeping inflation low. The central bank currently projects inflation at 3%. However, rising commodity and food prices and higher public investment and demand fueled by oil revenue, along with the current relatively liberal monetary policy environment, suggest that estimates of 5.8% (and about 6.0% in 2011) mark a more likely outcome. However, the likely appreciation of the local currency on higher oil revenues this year could complicate monetary policy if the central bank needs to intervene in the market to keep a lid on appreciation. The external account is expected to remain strong on higher oil export receipts with the current account surplus projected at 23.0% of GDP before easing to 21.7% next year (as stronger GDP growth sucks in imports). The recovery of the global economy will boost nonoil exports, too, while the upturn in the Russian economy will support higher workers’ remittances. The larger current account surplus, along with larger transfers from SOFAZ, will preclude the need for net foreign borrowing. External debt is projected to fall over the forecast period. Information obtained from the Exchange. Key Information Contacts National Bank www.cbar.az State Committee for Securities www.scs.gov.az Ministry of Finance www.maliyye.gov.az National Depository Center www.mdm.az Ministry of Economic Development www.economy.gov.az PAGE 38
FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES ANNUAL REPORT APRIL 2011 BAKU STOCK EXCHANGE MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Capital Nominal income Nominal avarage Consumer GDP Non-oil GDP investments population monthly wage Price Index Year, Total Growth Total Growth Total Growth Total Growth Total Growth monthly YTD month mn MNT rate, % mn MNT rate, % mn MNT rate, % mn MNT rate, % mn MNT rate, % % % 1998 3,440.6 110.0 1,102.4 121.1 2,849.2 115.2 33.7 119.0 -5.9 -0.8 1999 3,775.0 107.4 928.5 84.2 3,227.4 113.2 36.9 109.3 0.4 -8.5 2000 4,718.2 111.1 3,055.8 109.9 967.8 104.2 3,511.4 108.8 44.3 120.2 0.6 1.8 2001 5,315.6 109.9 3,195.9 108.7 1,129.8 116.7 3,876.4 110.4 52.0 126.7 0.9 1.5 2002 6,062.5 110.6 3,693.9 113.8 2,058.6 182.2 4,234.0 111.4 62.6 121.2 0.6 2.8 2003 7,146.5 111.2 4,447.6 114.9 3,561.9 173.0 4,841.6 111.4 76.6 121.4 1.5 2.2 2004 8,530.2 107.0 5,242.5 113.6 4,839.3 135.9 6,009.5 120.7 96.7 126.2 1.8 6.7 2005 12,522.5 126.4 6,055.0 108.3 5,424.3 112.7 7,792.3 125.7 117.9 121.9 2.2 9.6 2006 18,037.1 134.5 7,079.1 111.8 5,963.6 114.8 9,949.8 123.4 141.3 119.8 2.1 8.3 2007 26815.1 125.0 9,533.9 111.3 6,774.8 117.8 14,305.6 140.3 214.0 142.0 2.5 16.7 2008 01 2286.0 111.3 732.4 109.6 367.2 105.1 1,218.7 132.9 230.0 131.4 2.5 15.3 02 4767.0 113.4 1,518.3 110.1 859.9 120.5 2,625.5 133.0 231.0 127.6 2.2 15.7 03 8,209.8 113.8 2,390.8 111.3 1,409.2 121.4 4,143.8 133.1 229.8 126.5 3.1 16.5 04 11,172.4 115.0 3,184.0 111.5 2,031.7 121.6 5,762.0 134.0 237.5 123.2 3.1 17.8 05 14,308.6 114.6 4,047.0 111.9 2,695.9 121.7 7,380.8 134.1 242.7 124.3 2.3 19.2 06 18,505.7 116.5 5,694.6 115.6 3,643.4 131.9 9,041.2 134.2 250.4 123.8 0.1 20.2 07 23017,1 116.7 7,308.6 115.0 4,532.1 134.2 10,860.6 134.6 253.0 123.8 -0.3 20.9 08 25,891.9 113.2 8,627.1 114.8 5,396.6 136.6 12,709.5 135.4 255.3 123.4 0.0 21.3 09 30,370.4 115.0 9,853.2 115.4 6,283.0 138.0 14,557.9 135.6 256.9 123.1 0.9 21.5 10 32,542.4 112.7 11,098.8 115.4 7,171.3 138.4 16,504.2 135.7 260.2 123.9 0.8 21.6 11 34,660.6 111.5 12,206.2 116.3 7,957.5 138.8 18,176.8 135.8 265.1 124.3 0.1 21.4 12 40,137.2 110.8 15,197.2 115.7 9,073.6 134.3 20,058.2 137.8 268.0 124.2 -0.4 20.8 2009 01 1,860.0 97.4 891.5 102.8 277.4 75.4 1,434.7 121.9 291.0 126.5 -0.6 11.9 02 3,859.3 103.4 2,079.7 113.9 1,104.5 127.2 3,069.0 120.8 292.0 126.4 -0.8 10.3 03 6,741.8 104.1 3,549.3 113.7 1,638.9 115.2 4,964.0 121.0 292.0 126.5 -0.7 8.4 04 8,996.0 104.3 4,564.7 108.4 2,159.1 105.2 6,738.0 120.3 295.7 124.5 -0.2 6.6 05 11,366.1 104.4 5,392.2 106.6 2,698.6 100.4 8,584.2 118.5 296.5 122.2 -0.2 4.9 06 14,287.7 103.6 6,713.7 104.1 3,374.9 92.9 10,584.2 116.2 298.0 119.0 -0.6 3.7 07 17,336.5 102.7 8,315.7 103.6 4,082.5 90.3 12,530.5 113.6 298.0 117.8 0.8 3.1 08 20,628.0 105.0 9,502.1 101.5 4,562.5 84.7 14,583.5 112.6 298.0 116.7 0.1 2.6 09 23,427.1 106.1 10,676.6 100.8 5,199.4 82.9 16,082.6 109.8 296.6 115.5 0.4 2.1 10 26,647.5 108.3 12,029.3 101.1 5,922.7 82.8 18,073.9 107.8 296.3 113.9 0.4 1.7 11 29,654.2 109.0 13,227.9 101.0 6,444.4 81.2 19,816.2 107.6 296.0 111.7 1.3 1.5 12 34,578.7 109.3 15,683.2 103.2 7,358.7 81.3 22,396.1 108.0 298.0 108.6 0.8 1.5 2010 01 3,212.0 109.2 1,147.5 104.7 401.3 105.6 1,526.9 106.4 296.9 102.0 0.5 1.8 02 6,128.0 105.6 2,236.4 104.2 1,076.7 102.4 3,201.0 104.3 298.2 102.1 1.1 2.8 03 9,551.6 105.4 3,613.2 104.3 1,636.8 104.9 5,183.8 106.5 304.0 104.1 1.3 3.8 04 12,984.9 105.0 4,931.7 105.0 2,291.3 105.5 7,320.0 108.6 309.8 104.8 0.0 4.4 05 16,533.9 104.3 6,392.4 104.9 3,021.3 111.3 9,403.1 109.5 313.9 105.9 -0.2 4.7 06 19,680.0 103.7 7,865.0 104.7 3,766.9 110.9 11,483.7 109.7 315.2 105.0 -0.6 4.9 07 23,154.7 103.5 9,674.1 104.2 4,567.4 111.2 13,604.0 109.3 316.3 105.3 -0.2 4.9 08 26,189.6 103.8 10,964.9 104.5 5,218.1 111.3 15,832.8 111.0 317.4 105.7 0.7 5.0 09 29,308.0 104.1 12,394.8 105.2 6,157.8 115.2 17,979.2 111.3 319.1 106.6 0.9 5.2 10 32,499.5 104.1 13,732.4 105.4 7,057.8 114.8 20,290.2 111.7 320.0 107.2 0.9 5.3 11 36,575.4 104.5 15,506.9 105.9 7,704.5 115.2 22,678.4 112.0 321.2 107.7 1.8 5.5 PAGE 39
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