GES Simulation Guide v3.pdf - Avian Influenza and the Pandemic ...

GOVERNMENT EMERGENCY SIMULATION
ANNEX E: SAMPLE SCRIPTS | Pg 161 GOVERNMENT EMERGENCY SIMULATION ANNEX E: SAMPLE SCRIPTS | Pg 162
INJECT 1:
Emergence of a Novel Influenza Strain
SIMULATION – SIMULATION – SIMULATION
To: Ministry of Health,
CC: All participants
The Government of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic has reported to the WHO a
severe person-to-person outbreak of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the Laotian village of Ba
Na Ton, with two clusters and nine deaths. One human cluster is located in the provincial
hospital at Muang Pak-xan, with suspected transmission to one health care worker.
Government of Laos (GOL) and World Health Organization (WHO) authorities have not
yet confirmed presence of the influenza A H5N1 virus, but WHO officials are working with
national health agencies to investigate possible linkage between the suspected outbreak
in Laos and the cases of confirmed H5N1 in the United States and suspected cases of
H5N1 infection in Germany.
• WHAT ACTION SHOULD BE CONTEMPLATED AT THIS STAGE?
• WHAT PLANNING TOOLS ARE AVAILABLE?
• HOW IS INFORMATION FROM THE GOVERNMENTS OF LAO, GERMANY AND
THE US AND WHO ABOUT THE POTENTIAL PANDEMIC BEING GATHERED
AND SHARED?
INJECT 2:
SIMULATION – SIMULATION – SIMULATION
To: Ministry of Health,
CC: All participants
United States public health officials have reported to the WHO that a male patient is
currently hospitalized in critical condition in Austin, Texas with confirmed influenza A H5N1
infection. He became ill shortly after returning from Laos, where he was participating in
a group backpacking tour of Laotian tourist sites. Six additional persons, including one
healthcare worker, are hospitalized within the United States with influenza-like illnesses
(ILI) regarded as probable influenza A H5N1 infection. All six persons had contact with
the male patient either during his travel back to the United States, or immediately after
his return to Texas.
At the same time, German health authorities have reported to the WHO that a German
business executive has died of possible H5N1 infection and his son is currently
hospitalized in critical condition with influenza like illness (ILI). The executive recently
returned to Germany after an eleven day trip through Southeast Asia, including stays in
Vientiane and Bangkok. His son did not accompany him on this trip, but became sick
soon after his father’s return.
International press is showing significant interest and some “expert” media sources are
saying that the reported cases could be the beginning of an influenza pandemic.
1. Should the WHO change the Global Pandemic Alert level how will that change be
communicated?
2. If no change is made at this stage, what might trigger a change in due course?
3. At this point, what types of guidance should the Ministry of Health issue? Should
any other agencies or departments be involved at this stage? If not, why not.
4. What risk communication messages should be issued through mass media and
other appropriate channels? What, if anything is appropriate at this early stage?
Please communicate any messaging and decisions taken to the SAC ASAP
INJECT 3:
Human-to-Human transmission
SIMULATION – SIMULATION – SIMULATION
To: Ministry of Health, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
CC: All participants
Data confirms emergence of a novel strain of influenza A virus, capable of sustained,
efficient human-to-human transmission. Initial data indicates a 2-3% case fatality rate.
Nine clusters confirmed in Laos; death toll is over 60; approximately 2400 confirmed or
epidemiologically linked cases have been reported. Suspected outbreaks reported in
Thailand and Vietnam, with deaths reported in both countries, but not yet confirmed as
influenza A H5N1. Laos, Thailand and Vietnam are requesting assistance from other
governments, UN and international agencies.
1. Given the new information about human-to-human transmission, what steps need
to be taken?
2. What activities should be undertaken by non-health departments, such as logistics
preparedness?
3. What effect would the release of a vaccine have and how would you consider
vaccine distribution? Who is responsible?
INJECT 4:
Arrival of Influenza into Nigeria
SIMULATION – SIMULATION – SIMULATION
To: Ministry of Health, Ministry of Interior, Civil Defense
CC: All participants
A person has reported to the General Hospital in Lagos suffering from an influenza-like
illness (ILI). Initial reports indicate at least 20 patients have been admitted with serious
ILI symptoms. No confirmation of influenza A H5N1 infection, although testing is being
conducted.
Major economic and social disruption is developing in Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, with
significant migration out of disease outbreak areas. Food shortages are reported in Laos
and Vietnam.
Some airlines are cancelling flights to and from the affected countries, limiting airline
travel. British Airways is restricting flights into Nigeria and has stated that it may suspend
all flights into the country if the outbreak worsens.