Bild 1 - BALTEX

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Model experiments 1903-1998 • Rossby Centre coupled ice-ocean model RCO (2 nm, 41 levels) • observed runoff and sea level in Kattegat • reconstructed atmospheric forcing using a statistical model • initial conditions from profile data from November 1902 146
Reconstructed atmospheric forcing (Kauker and Meier, 2002; 2003) • redundancy modes from gridded 1 1 observations 1980-1998 (`learning period') • 1970-1979 validation • predictor variables: 100-years of SLP at 18 locations, air temperature and precipitation (CRU) • predictands: daily SLP, monthly air temperature, dew-point temperature, precipitation and cloud cover 147
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Physical oceanography of the Baltic
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References: • Fonselius, S., 1996
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1. History of Baltic Sea research
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Carta Marina (1539) (map of Scandin
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Important dates of Baltic Sea resea
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Factors affecting sea level change
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Land uplift relative to the mean se
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Sea level changes during the 20th c
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Some numbers: • during the last g
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Changes in inlet transect areas (Gu
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Simulated salinity for the Litorina
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3. Bottom topography of the Baltic
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Baltic Sea catchment area with Katt
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Monthly mean runoff to the Baltic w
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5. Heat balance Q a Q SW Q LW Q S Q
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Heat loss to the atmosphere (solid)
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6. Currents • There is only one p
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10-year mean stream function of the
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Satellite image of SST (IOW) (Rhein
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7. Sea level Forcing of the sea lev
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Diurnal tides (Magaard and Rheinhei
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Schematic of seiches (Magaard and R
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8. Temperature, salinity, density,
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Cross section of salinity (source:
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Salinity variability at Gotland Dee
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Cross section of temperature (Fonse
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Temperature in Arkona, Bornholm, Go
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Cross section of oxygen (Fonselius,
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9. Baltic sea ice ( Courtesy of Sep
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Maximum ice extent 1750 1800 1850 1
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Annual maximum ice extent model-dat
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Östersjön • medeldjup är 56 m
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Atmosphere-ice-ocean-land surface s
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Processes in the surface boundary l
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Horizontally integrated transport a
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Schematic view of the large-scale c
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Belt Sea Arkona observations Bornho
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Characteristic periods of major Bal
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Atmospheric CO 2 during 1750-1990 (
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Summer (JAS) SST Long-term Temperat
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Elken and Matthäus (2005) 81
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Salinity variations of various subb
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Oxygen and density at Gotland Deep
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12. Comparison with other seas 87
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13. Baltic Sea models • process o
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”Primitive equations” for large
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FLAME-modellen: Hastighet på 100 m
Page 95 and 96: Rossbys deformationsradie i POP km
Page 97 and 98: OCCAM 1 o (källa: A. Coward) 97
Page 99 and 100: OCCAM 1/12 o (källa: A. Coward) 99
Page 101 and 102: Vattenståndsvariabilitet h 2 POP-m
Page 103 and 104: Sea level at Landsort: model (solid
Page 105 and 106: Accumulated inflow: Sound (dotted),
Page 107 and 108: 15 December 2002 Salinity [psu] (Me
Page 109 and 110: 29 October 2003 Arkona Bornholm Got
Page 111 and 112: temperature observations: (Piechura
Page 113 and 114: Temperature, salinity, and age at B
Page 115 and 116: Temperature, salinity, and age at B
Page 117 and 118: Schematic view of the large-scale c
Page 119 and 120: Juvenile freshwater height April Ma
Page 121 and 122: Monthly mean freshwater outflow, to
Page 123 and 124: Vertical velocity difference betwee
Page 125 and 126: Hovmöller diagrams for the spreadi
Page 127 and 128: Normalized mean meridional wind and
Page 129 and 130: 16. On the Baltic conveyor belt (Me
Page 131 and 132: Salinity as function of time and de
Page 133 and 134: Annual temperature minimum (upper p
Page 135 and 136: Tracer marking IWW in the BB halocl
Page 137 and 138: Halocline depth for 1981-2004: annu
Page 139 and 140: Time scales (Bolin and Rodhe, 1973;
Page 141 and 142: Sea surface Halocline depth Bottom
Page 143 and 144: Sea surface Halocline depth Bottom
Page 145: 17. Causes of climate variability:
Page 149 and 150: SAT Stockholm The cross-spectra of
Page 151 and 152: Salinity Gotland Deep Data Model (M
Page 153 and 154: Salinity 4-yr running mean Runoff S
Page 155 and 156: Conclusions III 1. decadal variabil
Page 157 and 158: 18. Scenarios of temperature, salin
Page 159 and 160: Regional climate modeling at the Ro
Page 161 and 162: Regionalization is done for ”time
Page 163 and 164: 2009-03-20 winter summer spring aut
Page 165 and 166: 2009-03-20 Mean maximum ice cover i
Page 167 and 168: SST changes versus air temperature
Page 169 and 170: Relative wind changes RCAO-E/A2 RCA
Page 171 and 172: ∆-change scenarios based upon pre
Page 173 and 174: 2009-03-20 Model hierachy Emission
Page 175 and 176: Salinity as function of depth and t
Page 177 and 178: Median salinity and age profiles fo
Page 179 and 180: 2009-03-20 -03- 20 Run RCM GCM Scen
Page 181 and 182: 2009-03-20 -03- 20 Salinity at Gotl
Page 183 and 184: Anomaly of surface (black) and bott
Page 185 and 186: -30% S3 reference run +30% Horizont
Page 187 and 188: Variations in freshwater supply tha
Page 189 and 190: Salinity in the southern Baltic pro
Page 191 and 192: Conclusions (sections 16 to 18) 1.
Page 193 and 194: 1. Knudsen, M., 1900: Ein hydrograp
Page 195: 1. Welander, P., 1974: Two-layer ex
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