Bild 1 - BALTEX

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Relative frequency of maximum ice extent during 1720-2000 60
Annual maximum ice extent model-data Period ME RMSE R VAR 1903-98 16.8 55.2 0.87 0.71 1903-26 3.9 73.9 0.66 0.37 1927-66 29.1 52.8 0.94 0.79 1967-98 11.1 39.5 0.93 0.83 model Model biases: ME=mean error in 10 9 m 2 , RMSE=root mean square error in 10 9 m 2 , R=correlation coefficient, VAR=explained variance data 61 (Meier and Kauker, 2003a)
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Physical oceanography of the Baltic
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References: • Fonselius, S., 1996
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1. History of Baltic Sea research
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Carta Marina (1539) (map of Scandin
Page 9 and 10: Important dates of Baltic Sea resea
Page 11 and 12: Factors affecting sea level change
Page 13 and 14: Land uplift relative to the mean se
Page 15 and 16: Sea level changes during the 20th c
Page 17 and 18: Some numbers: • during the last g
Page 19 and 20: Changes in inlet transect areas (Gu
Page 21 and 22: Simulated salinity for the Litorina
Page 23 and 24: 3. Bottom topography of the Baltic
Page 25 and 26: Baltic Sea catchment area with Katt
Page 27 and 28: Monthly mean runoff to the Baltic w
Page 29 and 30: 5. Heat balance Q a Q SW Q LW Q S Q
Page 31 and 32: Heat loss to the atmosphere (solid)
Page 33 and 34: 6. Currents • There is only one p
Page 35 and 36: 10-year mean stream function of the
Page 37 and 38: Satellite image of SST (IOW) (Rhein
Page 39 and 40: 7. Sea level Forcing of the sea lev
Page 41 and 42: Diurnal tides (Magaard and Rheinhei
Page 43 and 44: Schematic of seiches (Magaard and R
Page 45 and 46: 8. Temperature, salinity, density,
Page 47 and 48: Cross section of salinity (source:
Page 49 and 50: Salinity variability at Gotland Dee
Page 51 and 52: Cross section of temperature (Fonse
Page 53 and 54: Temperature in Arkona, Bornholm, Go
Page 55 and 56: Cross section of oxygen (Fonselius,
Page 57 and 58: 9. Baltic sea ice ( Courtesy of Sep
Page 59: Maximum ice extent 1750 1800 1850 1
Page 63 and 64: Östersjön • medeldjup är 56 m
Page 65 and 66: Atmosphere-ice-ocean-land surface s
Page 67 and 68: Processes in the surface boundary l
Page 69 and 70: Horizontally integrated transport a
Page 71 and 72: Schematic view of the large-scale c
Page 73 and 74: Belt Sea Arkona observations Bornho
Page 75 and 76: Characteristic periods of major Bal
Page 77 and 78: Atmospheric CO 2 during 1750-1990 (
Page 79 and 80: Summer (JAS) SST Long-term Temperat
Page 81 and 82: Elken and Matthäus (2005) 81
Page 83 and 84: Salinity variations of various subb
Page 85 and 86: Oxygen and density at Gotland Deep
Page 87 and 88: 12. Comparison with other seas 87
Page 89 and 90: 13. Baltic Sea models • process o
Page 91 and 92: ”Primitive equations” for large
Page 93 and 94: FLAME-modellen: Hastighet på 100 m
Page 95 and 96: Rossbys deformationsradie i POP km
Page 97 and 98: OCCAM 1 o (källa: A. Coward) 97
Page 99 and 100: OCCAM 1/12 o (källa: A. Coward) 99
Page 101 and 102: Vattenståndsvariabilitet h 2 POP-m
Page 103 and 104: Sea level at Landsort: model (solid
Page 105 and 106: Accumulated inflow: Sound (dotted),
Page 107 and 108: 15 December 2002 Salinity [psu] (Me
Page 109 and 110: 29 October 2003 Arkona Bornholm Got
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temperature observations: (Piechura
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Temperature, salinity, and age at B
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Temperature, salinity, and age at B
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Schematic view of the large-scale c
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Juvenile freshwater height April Ma
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Monthly mean freshwater outflow, to
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Vertical velocity difference betwee
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Hovmöller diagrams for the spreadi
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Normalized mean meridional wind and
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16. On the Baltic conveyor belt (Me
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Salinity as function of time and de
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Annual temperature minimum (upper p
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Tracer marking IWW in the BB halocl
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Halocline depth for 1981-2004: annu
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Time scales (Bolin and Rodhe, 1973;
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Sea surface Halocline depth Bottom
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Sea surface Halocline depth Bottom
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17. Causes of climate variability:
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Reconstructed atmospheric forcing (
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SAT Stockholm The cross-spectra of
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Salinity Gotland Deep Data Model (M
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Salinity 4-yr running mean Runoff S
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Conclusions III 1. decadal variabil
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18. Scenarios of temperature, salin
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Regional climate modeling at the Ro
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Regionalization is done for ”time
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2009-03-20 winter summer spring aut
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2009-03-20 Mean maximum ice cover i
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SST changes versus air temperature
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Relative wind changes RCAO-E/A2 RCA
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∆-change scenarios based upon pre
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2009-03-20 Model hierachy Emission
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Salinity as function of depth and t
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Median salinity and age profiles fo
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2009-03-20 -03- 20 Run RCM GCM Scen
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2009-03-20 -03- 20 Salinity at Gotl
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Anomaly of surface (black) and bott
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-30% S3 reference run +30% Horizont
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Variations in freshwater supply tha
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Salinity in the southern Baltic pro
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Conclusions (sections 16 to 18) 1.
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1. Knudsen, M., 1900: Ein hydrograp
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1. Welander, P., 1974: Two-layer ex
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