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1. Meier, H.E.M., 2006: Baltic Sea climate in the late twenty-first century: a dynamical downscaling approach to project changes using a regional climate model, two global model and two forcing scenarios. Clim. Dyn., 27(1), 39-68 2. Meier, H.E.M., E. Kjellström, and L. P. Graham, 2006: Estimating uncertainties of projected Baltic Sea salinity in the late 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, No. 15, L15705 3. Meier, H.E.M., 2007: Modeling the pathways and ages of inflowing salt- and freshwater in the Baltic Sea. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 74/4, 717-734. 4. Sjöberg, B. (ed.), 1992: Sea and coast. The National Atlas of Sweden. SNA Publishing, Stockholm, pp. 127 5. Neumann, G., 1941: Eigenschwingungen der Ostsee. Arch. Dtsch. Seewarte Marineobs., 61, 1-59 6. Omstedt, A., and D. Cheng, 2001: Influence of atmospheric circulation on the maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 4493-4500 7. Piechura, J., and A. Beszczynska-Möller, 2003: Inflow waters in the deep regions of the southern Baltic Sea – transport and transformation. Oceanologia, 45, 593-621 8. Räisänen, J., U. Hansson, A. Ullerstig, R. Döscher, L.P. Graham, C. Jones, H.E.M. Meier, P. Samuelsson, and U. Willén, 2004: European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Clim. Dyn., 22, 13-31 9. Seifert, T., and B. Kayser, 1995: A high resolution spherical grid topography of the Baltic Sea. Meereswiss. Ber. Warnemünde, 9, 73-88 10. Stigebrandt, A., 2001: Physical oceanography of the Baltic Sea. In: Wulff, F., L. Rahm, and P. Larsson (eds.): A system analysis of the Baltic Sea. Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, 19-74 11. Stipa, T., and J. Vepsäläinen, 2002: The fragile climatological niche of the Baltic Sea. Boreal Env. Res., 7, 335-342 12. Thorpe, S.A., 1985: Small-scale processes in the upper ocean boundary layer. J. Fluid Mech., 318, 519-522 13. Von Storch, H., and F. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge 194 University Press, 484 pp.
1. Welander, P., 1974: Two-layer exchange in an estuary basin, with special reference to the Baltic Sea. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 4, 542-556 2. Winsor, P., J. Rodhe, and A. Omstedt, 2001: Baltic Sea ocean climate: an analysis of 100 yr of hydrographic data with focus on the freshwater budget. Clim. Res., 18, 5-15 3. Winsor, P., J. Rodhe, and A. Omstedt, 2003: Erratum: Baltic Sea ocean climate: an analysis of 100 yr of hydrographic data with focus on the freshwater budget. Clim. Res., 25, 183 195
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Physical oceanography of the Baltic
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References: • Fonselius, S., 1996
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1. History of Baltic Sea research
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Carta Marina (1539) (map of Scandin
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Important dates of Baltic Sea resea
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Factors affecting sea level change
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Land uplift relative to the mean se
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Sea level changes during the 20th c
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Some numbers: • during the last g
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Changes in inlet transect areas (Gu
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Simulated salinity for the Litorina
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3. Bottom topography of the Baltic
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Baltic Sea catchment area with Katt
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Monthly mean runoff to the Baltic w
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5. Heat balance Q a Q SW Q LW Q S Q
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Heat loss to the atmosphere (solid)
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6. Currents • There is only one p
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10-year mean stream function of the
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Satellite image of SST (IOW) (Rhein
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7. Sea level Forcing of the sea lev
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Diurnal tides (Magaard and Rheinhei
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Schematic of seiches (Magaard and R
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8. Temperature, salinity, density,
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Cross section of salinity (source:
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Salinity variability at Gotland Dee
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Cross section of temperature (Fonse
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Temperature in Arkona, Bornholm, Go
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Cross section of oxygen (Fonselius,
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9. Baltic sea ice ( Courtesy of Sep
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Maximum ice extent 1750 1800 1850 1
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Annual maximum ice extent model-dat
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Östersjön • medeldjup är 56 m
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Atmosphere-ice-ocean-land surface s
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Processes in the surface boundary l
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Horizontally integrated transport a
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Schematic view of the large-scale c
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Belt Sea Arkona observations Bornho
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Characteristic periods of major Bal
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Atmospheric CO 2 during 1750-1990 (
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Summer (JAS) SST Long-term Temperat
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Elken and Matthäus (2005) 81
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Salinity variations of various subb
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Oxygen and density at Gotland Deep
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12. Comparison with other seas 87
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13. Baltic Sea models • process o
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”Primitive equations” for large
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FLAME-modellen: Hastighet på 100 m
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Rossbys deformationsradie i POP km
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OCCAM 1 o (källa: A. Coward) 97
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OCCAM 1/12 o (källa: A. Coward) 99
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Vattenståndsvariabilitet h 2 POP-m
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Sea level at Landsort: model (solid
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Accumulated inflow: Sound (dotted),
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15 December 2002 Salinity [psu] (Me
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29 October 2003 Arkona Bornholm Got
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temperature observations: (Piechura
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Temperature, salinity, and age at B
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Temperature, salinity, and age at B
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Schematic view of the large-scale c
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Juvenile freshwater height April Ma
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Monthly mean freshwater outflow, to
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Vertical velocity difference betwee
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Hovmöller diagrams for the spreadi
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Normalized mean meridional wind and
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16. On the Baltic conveyor belt (Me
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Salinity as function of time and de
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Annual temperature minimum (upper p
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Tracer marking IWW in the BB halocl
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Halocline depth for 1981-2004: annu
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Time scales (Bolin and Rodhe, 1973;
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Sea surface Halocline depth Bottom
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Page 145 and 146: 17. Causes of climate variability:
Page 147 and 148: Reconstructed atmospheric forcing (
Page 149 and 150: SAT Stockholm The cross-spectra of
Page 151 and 152: Salinity Gotland Deep Data Model (M
Page 153 and 154: Salinity 4-yr running mean Runoff S
Page 155 and 156: Conclusions III 1. decadal variabil
Page 157 and 158: 18. Scenarios of temperature, salin
Page 159 and 160: Regional climate modeling at the Ro
Page 161 and 162: Regionalization is done for ”time
Page 163 and 164: 2009-03-20 winter summer spring aut
Page 165 and 166: 2009-03-20 Mean maximum ice cover i
Page 167 and 168: SST changes versus air temperature
Page 169 and 170: Relative wind changes RCAO-E/A2 RCA
Page 171 and 172: ∆-change scenarios based upon pre
Page 173 and 174: 2009-03-20 Model hierachy Emission
Page 175 and 176: Salinity as function of depth and t
Page 177 and 178: Median salinity and age profiles fo
Page 179 and 180: 2009-03-20 -03- 20 Run RCM GCM Scen
Page 181 and 182: 2009-03-20 -03- 20 Salinity at Gotl
Page 183 and 184: Anomaly of surface (black) and bott
Page 185 and 186: -30% S3 reference run +30% Horizont
Page 187 and 188: Variations in freshwater supply tha
Page 189 and 190: Salinity in the southern Baltic pro
Page 191 and 192: Conclusions (sections 16 to 18) 1.
Page 193: 1. Knudsen, M., 1900: Ein hydrograp
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