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Laufendes 4-Jahresmittel der horizontalintegrierten Volumentransportanomalie [m 3 /s] (Meier & Kauker 2003a) 154
Conclusions III 1. decadal variability is realistically simulated using RCO, e.g. inflows, stagnation phases 2. mean salinity amounts to 7.4 psu, variations of about 1 psu, no trend 3. half of the decadal variability of salinity is explained by accumulated freshwater inflow variations (Meier and Kauker, 2003a) 4. another significant part is caused by the low-frequency variability of the wind (Meier and Kauker, 2003a) 5. remainder might be caused by the high-frequency wind anomaly, i.e. specific atmospheric conditions causing major saltwater inflows (Lass and Matthäus, 1996) 6. no impact of river regulation, sea ice (air temperature), sea level in Kattegat on decadal time scale 155
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Physical oceanography of the Baltic
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References: • Fonselius, S., 1996
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1. History of Baltic Sea research
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Carta Marina (1539) (map of Scandin
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Important dates of Baltic Sea resea
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Factors affecting sea level change
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Land uplift relative to the mean se
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Sea level changes during the 20th c
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Some numbers: • during the last g
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Changes in inlet transect areas (Gu
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Simulated salinity for the Litorina
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3. Bottom topography of the Baltic
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Baltic Sea catchment area with Katt
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Monthly mean runoff to the Baltic w
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5. Heat balance Q a Q SW Q LW Q S Q
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Heat loss to the atmosphere (solid)
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6. Currents • There is only one p
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10-year mean stream function of the
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Satellite image of SST (IOW) (Rhein
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7. Sea level Forcing of the sea lev
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Diurnal tides (Magaard and Rheinhei
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Schematic of seiches (Magaard and R
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8. Temperature, salinity, density,
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Cross section of salinity (source:
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Salinity variability at Gotland Dee
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Cross section of temperature (Fonse
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Temperature in Arkona, Bornholm, Go
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Cross section of oxygen (Fonselius,
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9. Baltic sea ice ( Courtesy of Sep
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Maximum ice extent 1750 1800 1850 1
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Annual maximum ice extent model-dat
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Östersjön • medeldjup är 56 m
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Atmosphere-ice-ocean-land surface s
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Processes in the surface boundary l
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Horizontally integrated transport a
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Schematic view of the large-scale c
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Belt Sea Arkona observations Bornho
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Characteristic periods of major Bal
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Atmospheric CO 2 during 1750-1990 (
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Summer (JAS) SST Long-term Temperat
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Elken and Matthäus (2005) 81
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Salinity variations of various subb
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Oxygen and density at Gotland Deep
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12. Comparison with other seas 87
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13. Baltic Sea models • process o
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”Primitive equations” for large
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FLAME-modellen: Hastighet på 100 m
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Rossbys deformationsradie i POP km
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OCCAM 1 o (källa: A. Coward) 97
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OCCAM 1/12 o (källa: A. Coward) 99
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Vattenståndsvariabilitet h 2 POP-m
Page 103 and 104: Sea level at Landsort: model (solid
Page 105 and 106: Accumulated inflow: Sound (dotted),
Page 107 and 108: 15 December 2002 Salinity [psu] (Me
Page 109 and 110: 29 October 2003 Arkona Bornholm Got
Page 111 and 112: temperature observations: (Piechura
Page 113 and 114: Temperature, salinity, and age at B
Page 115 and 116: Temperature, salinity, and age at B
Page 117 and 118: Schematic view of the large-scale c
Page 119 and 120: Juvenile freshwater height April Ma
Page 121 and 122: Monthly mean freshwater outflow, to
Page 123 and 124: Vertical velocity difference betwee
Page 125 and 126: Hovmöller diagrams for the spreadi
Page 127 and 128: Normalized mean meridional wind and
Page 129 and 130: 16. On the Baltic conveyor belt (Me
Page 131 and 132: Salinity as function of time and de
Page 133 and 134: Annual temperature minimum (upper p
Page 135 and 136: Tracer marking IWW in the BB halocl
Page 137 and 138: Halocline depth for 1981-2004: annu
Page 139 and 140: Time scales (Bolin and Rodhe, 1973;
Page 141 and 142: Sea surface Halocline depth Bottom
Page 143 and 144: Sea surface Halocline depth Bottom
Page 145 and 146: 17. Causes of climate variability:
Page 147 and 148: Reconstructed atmospheric forcing (
Page 149 and 150: SAT Stockholm The cross-spectra of
Page 151 and 152: Salinity Gotland Deep Data Model (M
Page 153: Salinity 4-yr running mean Runoff S
Page 157 and 158: 18. Scenarios of temperature, salin
Page 159 and 160: Regional climate modeling at the Ro
Page 161 and 162: Regionalization is done for ”time
Page 163 and 164: 2009-03-20 winter summer spring aut
Page 165 and 166: 2009-03-20 Mean maximum ice cover i
Page 167 and 168: SST changes versus air temperature
Page 169 and 170: Relative wind changes RCAO-E/A2 RCA
Page 171 and 172: ∆-change scenarios based upon pre
Page 173 and 174: 2009-03-20 Model hierachy Emission
Page 175 and 176: Salinity as function of depth and t
Page 177 and 178: Median salinity and age profiles fo
Page 179 and 180: 2009-03-20 -03- 20 Run RCM GCM Scen
Page 181 and 182: 2009-03-20 -03- 20 Salinity at Gotl
Page 183 and 184: Anomaly of surface (black) and bott
Page 185 and 186: -30% S3 reference run +30% Horizont
Page 187 and 188: Variations in freshwater supply tha
Page 189 and 190: Salinity in the southern Baltic pro
Page 191 and 192: Conclusions (sections 16 to 18) 1.
Page 193 and 194: 1. Knudsen, M., 1900: Ein hydrograp
Page 195: 1. Welander, P., 1974: Two-layer ex
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