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Sensitivity of salinity to the freshwater supply sensitivity experiments natural variability scenarios present climate 186
Variations in freshwater supply that is necessary to explain salinity variations derived from proxy data (Gustafsson and Westman, 2002) 187
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Physical oceanography of the Baltic
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References: • Fonselius, S., 1996
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1. History of Baltic Sea research
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Carta Marina (1539) (map of Scandin
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Important dates of Baltic Sea resea
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Factors affecting sea level change
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Land uplift relative to the mean se
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Sea level changes during the 20th c
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Some numbers: • during the last g
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Changes in inlet transect areas (Gu
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Simulated salinity for the Litorina
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3. Bottom topography of the Baltic
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Baltic Sea catchment area with Katt
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Monthly mean runoff to the Baltic w
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5. Heat balance Q a Q SW Q LW Q S Q
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Heat loss to the atmosphere (solid)
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6. Currents • There is only one p
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10-year mean stream function of the
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Satellite image of SST (IOW) (Rhein
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7. Sea level Forcing of the sea lev
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Diurnal tides (Magaard and Rheinhei
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Schematic of seiches (Magaard and R
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8. Temperature, salinity, density,
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Cross section of salinity (source:
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Salinity variability at Gotland Dee
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Cross section of temperature (Fonse
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Temperature in Arkona, Bornholm, Go
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Cross section of oxygen (Fonselius,
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9. Baltic sea ice ( Courtesy of Sep
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Maximum ice extent 1750 1800 1850 1
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Annual maximum ice extent model-dat
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Östersjön • medeldjup är 56 m
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Atmosphere-ice-ocean-land surface s
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Processes in the surface boundary l
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Horizontally integrated transport a
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Schematic view of the large-scale c
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Belt Sea Arkona observations Bornho
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Characteristic periods of major Bal
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Atmospheric CO 2 during 1750-1990 (
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Summer (JAS) SST Long-term Temperat
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Elken and Matthäus (2005) 81
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Salinity variations of various subb
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Oxygen and density at Gotland Deep
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12. Comparison with other seas 87
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13. Baltic Sea models • process o
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”Primitive equations” for large
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FLAME-modellen: Hastighet på 100 m
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Rossbys deformationsradie i POP km
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OCCAM 1 o (källa: A. Coward) 97
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OCCAM 1/12 o (källa: A. Coward) 99
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Vattenståndsvariabilitet h 2 POP-m
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Sea level at Landsort: model (solid
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Accumulated inflow: Sound (dotted),
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15 December 2002 Salinity [psu] (Me
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29 October 2003 Arkona Bornholm Got
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temperature observations: (Piechura
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Temperature, salinity, and age at B
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Temperature, salinity, and age at B
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Schematic view of the large-scale c
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Juvenile freshwater height April Ma
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Monthly mean freshwater outflow, to
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Vertical velocity difference betwee
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Hovmöller diagrams for the spreadi
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Normalized mean meridional wind and
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16. On the Baltic conveyor belt (Me
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Salinity as function of time and de
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Annual temperature minimum (upper p
Page 135 and 136: Tracer marking IWW in the BB halocl
Page 137 and 138: Halocline depth for 1981-2004: annu
Page 139 and 140: Time scales (Bolin and Rodhe, 1973;
Page 141 and 142: Sea surface Halocline depth Bottom
Page 143 and 144: Sea surface Halocline depth Bottom
Page 145 and 146: 17. Causes of climate variability:
Page 147 and 148: Reconstructed atmospheric forcing (
Page 149 and 150: SAT Stockholm The cross-spectra of
Page 151 and 152: Salinity Gotland Deep Data Model (M
Page 153 and 154: Salinity 4-yr running mean Runoff S
Page 155 and 156: Conclusions III 1. decadal variabil
Page 157 and 158: 18. Scenarios of temperature, salin
Page 159 and 160: Regional climate modeling at the Ro
Page 161 and 162: Regionalization is done for ”time
Page 163 and 164: 2009-03-20 winter summer spring aut
Page 165 and 166: 2009-03-20 Mean maximum ice cover i
Page 167 and 168: SST changes versus air temperature
Page 169 and 170: Relative wind changes RCAO-E/A2 RCA
Page 171 and 172: ∆-change scenarios based upon pre
Page 173 and 174: 2009-03-20 Model hierachy Emission
Page 175 and 176: Salinity as function of depth and t
Page 177 and 178: Median salinity and age profiles fo
Page 179 and 180: 2009-03-20 -03- 20 Run RCM GCM Scen
Page 181 and 182: 2009-03-20 -03- 20 Salinity at Gotl
Page 183 and 184: Anomaly of surface (black) and bott
Page 185: -30% S3 reference run +30% Horizont
Page 189 and 190: Salinity in the southern Baltic pro
Page 191 and 192: Conclusions (sections 16 to 18) 1.
Page 193 and 194: 1. Knudsen, M., 1900: Ein hydrograp
Page 195: 1. Welander, P., 1974: Two-layer ex
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