PEST RISK ANALYSIS (PRA) TRAINING Group Exercises Manual

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GROUP EXERCISE NO. 3.1 PEST RISK ANALYSIS TRAINING - GROUP EXERCISES MANUAL Part 3 – Pest Risk Assessment, Probability of Entry Pest introduction is comprised of both entry and establishment. Assessing the probability of introduction requires an analysis of each of the pathways with which a pest may be associated from its origin to its establishment in the PRA area. A) Identification of pathways (20 minutes) The probability of entry of a pest depends on the pathways from the exporting country to the PRA area. Their variety, frequency, volume, destination and end-use, and the frequency and quantity of pests associated with each influences the likelihood of the pest entering the PRA area. The greater the volume and frequency of pathways, the greater the probability of the pest entering the PRA area will be. A good understanding and description of the pathway(s) that a pest or pests may move on contributes to an accurate PRA. Describe all of the pathways the pest could be carried on: Documented pathways for the pest to enter new areas should be noted. Potential pathways, which may not currently exist, but are feasible future pathways, should be assessed. Pest interception data may provide evidence of the ability of a pest to be associated with a pathway and to survive in transport or storage. B) Evaluation of pathways (1 hour) Each of the pathways identified above should be evaluated in turn, to determine the likelihood that the pest will be associated with it. For each pathway identified, answer the following questions: 1. Probability of the pest being associated with the pathway at origin • Does the pest occur in the source area? What is its prevalence? • Does the pest occur in a life-stage that would be associated with commodities, containers, or conveyances? Do seeds, germ cells, spores or other propagules have access to commodities, containers or conveyances? • Is seasonal timing appropriate for the pest to be associated with the pathway at origin? 24
PEST RISK ANALYSIS TRAINING - GROUP EXERCISES MANUAL GROUP EXERCISE NO. 3.1 • What is the volume and frequency of movement along the pathway? • Are there pest management, cultural and commercial procedures applied at the place of origin that would affect the prevalence of the pest in the pathway? (e.g. application of plant protection products, handling, culling, roguing, grading) • Has the pest ever been detected or intercepted on the pathway? Description of Pathway Probability of association at origin Important assumptions 2. Probability of survival during transport or storage • Will the speed and conditions of transport affect the likelihood of the pest surviving? Is the life cycle of the pest of sufficient duration to extend beyond the time in transport and storage? • How vulnerable are the life-stages that are likely to be transported or stored? (e.g. viability of seeds or propagules for plants, tolerance of low oxygen or high salinity levels for aquatic organisms, or tolerance of extreme temperatures for all organisms) • What is the prevalence of the pest likely to be associated with a consignment? Is the pest likely to reproduce or increase in prevalence during transport and storage? • Are there any commercial procedures (e.g. refrigeration, surface treatments, cleaning, controlled atmosphere storage) that are applied to consignments in the country of origin, country of destination, or in transport or storage that could affect the likelihood of the pest surviving? • Has the pest ever been intercepted alive on a consignment? Probability of survival on pathway Important assumptions 25
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PEST RISK ANALYSIS (PRA) TRAINING Group Exercises Manual

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