PEST RISK ANALYSIS (PRA) TRAINING Group Exercises Manual

GROUP EXERCISE NO. 3.1
PEST RISK ANALYSIS TRAINING - GROUP EXERCISES MANUAL
3. Probability of the pest surviving existing pest management
procedures
• Are there existing pest management procedures (including phytosanitary
procedures) applied to consignments in the country of origin or the country of
destination that would mitigate against the risk of introducing the pest?
• Are there existing pest management procedures (including phytosanitary
procedures) applied to consignments against other pests from origin to enduse
of the pathway, which would be effective against the pest in question?
• What is the probability that the pest will go undetected during inspection or
survive other existing phytosanitary procedures?
• Can the pest be easily distinguished from similar organisms? What is the
intensity of the sampling and inspection? Consider where the pest is likely to
be found on the commodity, what life stages of the pest may be readily
detected on the commodity, how the symptoms of the pest are expressed (e.g.
whether they are distinct or whether they resemble those of other pests or
sources of damage such as mechanical or cold injury).
Probability of
surviving existing
measures
Important
assumptions
4. Probability of transfer to a suitable host
• Will the imported commodity be sent to few or many destination points in the
PRA area?
• How close are the points of entry, transit, and destination to suitable hosts in
the PRA area? In the case of non-parasitic plants that are pests, suitable
habitats may be considered instead of hosts.
• What is the intended use of the commodity? Some uses are associated with a
much higher probability of introduction (e.g. planting) than others (e.g.
processing).
• At what time of year will the import take place? How likely is the pest to arrive
at the time of year most appropriate for establishment?
• Are there dispersal mechanisms, including vectors, that will allow movement
from the pathway to a suitable host or habitat?
• Are there any risks of transferring the pest to a suitable host or habitat with
by-products and waste?
Probability of
finding a host
Important
assumptions
26