PEST RISK ANALYSIS (PRA) TRAINING Group Exercises Manual

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GROUP EXERCISE NO. 3.2 PEST RISK ANALYSIS TRAINING - GROUP EXERCISES MANUAL Conclusion of the probability of introduction and spread The overall probability of introduction and spread should be expressed in terms most suitable for the data, the methods used for analysis, and the intended audience. This may be quantitative or qualitative, since either output is the result of a combination of both quantitative and qualitative information. The probability of introduction may be expressed as a comparison to other better-known pests, or other pests for which PRAs are available. Since introduction includes both entry and establishment, estimate the overall probability of introduction and spread of the pest based on the individual assessments (above) of entry, establishment and spread potential. Overall Probability of Introduction and Spread Important Assumptions Sources of uncertainty Points for Discussion • Are entry, establishment and spread equally important factors in assessing a pest’s overall introduction potential? • What challenges are faced when combining subjective assessments for different characteristics, such as entry potential and establishment potential? • How can these challenges be addressed most effectively? 34
PEST RISK ANALYSIS TRAINING - GROUP EXERCISES MANUAL GROUP EXERCISE NO. 3.3 GROUP EXERCISE NO. 3.3 – POTENTIAL ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES A pest may have direct or indirect effects and these may be economic, environmental or social. In a pest risk assessment, each effect is evaluated separately and then combined in order to reach a conclusion on a pest’s overall potential consequences. Requirements described in this step indicate the information which should be assembled, and suggest levels of economic analysis that may be carried out using that information in order to assess the various potential effects of the pest. Wherever appropriate, quantitative data should be used, though qualitative data may also be used. Consultation with an economist may be useful. In order to estimate the potential economic importance of the pest, information should be obtained from areas where the pest occurs naturally or has been introduced. This information should be compared with the situation in the PRA area. Case histories concerning comparable pests can usefully be considered. Use the information provided to answer the following questions: 1. Direct economic effects • What are the known or potential host plants, including those in the field, under protected cultivation, or growing in the wild (generate a list)? Are any of the hosts of economic importance? If so, provide data to show how much importance. • What are the types, amount and frequency of damage caused by the pest? Are some host species more susceptible than others? • Does the pest cause crop losses, in yield and quality? If so, how much? What revenue losses can reasonably be expected? • Are there other biotic factors (e.g. adaptability and virulence of the pest) that may affect damage and losses? If yes, list them. • Are there abiotic factors (e.g. climate) that may affect damage and losses? If yes, list them. • What is the pest’s rate of reproduction and spread? • What measures exist for control of the pest, and what is their efficacy and cost? • What effect might the pest have on existing production practices in the PRA area? Consider changes in production methods and associated costs. • Would presence of the pest necessitate additional costs over those already incurred in production of the commodity? If so, what are they? For each of the potential hosts, the total area of the crop and area potentially endangered should be estimated in relation to the elements given above. Note also that economic consequences are expressed over time, and may be felt in one year, several years, or over an indeterminate period. Various scenarios should be considered. Using the information provided, describe and estimate the direct economic effects of the pest if it were to be introduced and spread? If possible, predict the time period over which these effects would be felt. 35
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