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DAM SYNCHRONISATION AND FLOOD RELEASES IN THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN: ANNEX 4 OF FINAL REPORT capacity of local livelihoods. In Mozambique, resettlement initiatives take place in which possible flood victims are offered material for resettling on safe ground on a voluntary basis. Cost effectiveness Operational flood mapping during flood events helps to improve flood forecasts (real time calibration), helps warning and rescue (real time information) and helps future flood risk zoning (mapping historical floods). In that sense the monitoring of floods during flood events is a cost effective investment. Ground truthing and Remote Sensing (by Radar images) should then be planned to happen simultaneously. The Department of Water Affairs of Namibia already intends working in that way during new flood events, mobilizing their team in Katima Mulilo. The Zimbabwean government used to have an operational team that measured water levels during flood events, but this team is currently dysfunctional. Such ground truthing teams also need to assess flows during floods, as most flow gauges are not calibrated or do not have the capacity to measure flood flows. The challenge is to introduce flood risk zoning in a way that is cost effective for flood protection, staging it from priority areas and simple historical flood extent mapping to more elaborate flood risk zoning. Implementing a system like the EU Flood Directive, is in the EU generally indicated as being expensive. (For Switzerland an estimate is available, which is in the order of 2,000 €/km 2 (UNECE, 2009). For the Zambezi Region such a high order of costs would definitely not be a cost effective investment. What can be learned from the EU Flood Directive (See Appendix E.2) is that the directive does not enforce any strict rules on which areas need to be included and for which. Likelihood of realization The Consultant considers that the present flood risk mapping activities that are underway in various countries aton different levels and scales are at a preliminary stage for implementation of basin-wide flood hazard and flood risk mapping. Inthe future, effort will need to be placed on establishing ZAMCOM as the coordinating agency for bringing together the many relevant international agencies and organizations in order tomove towards a basin-wide approach. Impact on more than one country If the initiative is implemented at a Zambezi River Basin scale, this would indeed benefit two or more countries. As is clear from the flow forecasting report of this study, information exchange between countries on floods is a major issue and if flood hazard mapping can contribute to improved forecasting as well as better information exchange, this will be beneficial. In the stakeholder interview with the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development in Malawi (interview August 2010), it was clearly mentioned that more knowhow on flood risk in Mozambique flood risks would improve disaster management in the lower Shire basin. Another example is the Chobe River floodplains, where coordination between Namibia and Botswana is essential. 64
DAM SYNCHRONISATION AND FLOOD RELEASES IN THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN: ANNEX 4 OF FINAL REPORT 6.6 Conclusions and recommendations Flood risk zoning for flood insurance is not a viable option in the Zambezi Region at present. Flood risk zoning for regulation of new settlements and for regulation of current land use and raising of awareness only makes sense as an investment if further local research can show that such a system will be respected and that local inhabitants are not sufficiently aware of risks at present. Flood risk zoning for warning and rescue is already taking place; flood mapping during floods had been done by UNOSAT for example. Flood Risk Vulnerability has been assessed for some villages by the International Federation for Red Cross. UN Habitat has also commissioned different flood mapping studies. Coordination between current mapping activities in the Zambezi River Basin is a first and useful step in Risk Zoning that benefit flood forecasting and involvement of international relief organisations during floods as well as the understanding between neighbouring countries. This coordination is therefore recommended. Data availability in the region for flood risk zoning, limits the possibilities. A map of maximum flood extents can be useful and is a limited investment, but mapping flood frequencies is more difficult. The example of the flood risk zoning around Kariba, where a distinction is made of zones for multi-year crops and seasonal crops, can be established in different areas in the Zambezi river basin, but it needs to be noted that in many areas people may have already adapted such approaches without any official flood risk zoning. The current developments in remote sensing will contribute significantly to improved and less costly flood risk zoning in the near future. 65
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