Cutting or Tightening the Gordian Knot

Foreword
Predrag Jureković
After two years of Serb-Albanian negotiations without having achieved
a political compromise, the Kosovo status issue since February has gone
through tremendous changes: The Kosovo Parliament on 17 February
2008 declared the independence of this province under UN administration.
While the greater part of EU member states and the US government
have recognized Kosovo as an independent country or have announced
their intention to do so, Serbia and Russia want to fight this as an “illegal”
qualified decision with diplomatic means.
The EU plans to replace the United Nations Interim Administration Mission
in Kosovo (UNMIK), in order to support state building and to
monitor the implementation of minority rights in accordance with the
Ahtisaari Plan. The conditions for the new EU missions are difficult due
to a deteriorating security situation in the ethnically Serb dominated
north of Kosovo and political resistance from the Serbian government in
Belgrade. The heterogeneous government of Vojislav Koštunica broke
up as a consequence of antagonist opinions on future relations with the
EU after their support for Kosovo’s independence. Although a nationalistic
setback in Serbia seems less probable due to the appointment of a
mainly pro-European new government in July, as a consequence of preliminary
elections conducted in May, the path to a more pragmatic policy
towards Kosovo seems to remain rather difficult.
In Serbia’s and Kosovo’s neighbourhood – especially in Bosnia and
Herzegovina and Macedonia – the fear of negative repercussions of the
Kosovo development has increased. There is a genuine fear of a “domino
effect” where other groups in neighbouring countries could also demand
rights for self-determination, especially in Serbia proper, where in
its mainly Albanian inhabited southern part a de facto division of Kosovo
could lead to nationalistic demands.
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