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ONTARIO TRENDS - Continued217,800 units recently, down from 227,700 units the previousmonth. This is the first time house prices fell since January, 1999.“Despite the decrease, total housing starts remain at high levels,”said the Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre.“This is mostly due to the multiple segment which has been continuouslyabove the 100,000 unit threshold since the beginning ofthe year.”The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts moved downby 5 percent in June compared to May. Both urban multiples andsingles decreased, with a decline of 3.0 percent for multiples to114,700 units, and a 7.8 percent drop for singles to 74,600 units.The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts went down inall regions of Canada, except Ontario, where housing startsincreased by 10.8 percent to 77,900 in June. Urban starts declinedto 40,300 units in Quebec. Both single and multiple urban startsdecreased in all regions in June, with the exception of multiplestarts in Ontario which increased by 30 percent. For the first half of2008, actual starts in rural and urban areas combined were up anestimated 1.5 percent compared to the same period last year.A Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) forecast stated that Canada’seconomy will recover moderately from the surprising retreat in thefirst quarter before rising to a relatively healthy 2.5 percent growthnext year. In a “nervously optimistic” outlook, the bank calls for abounceback of 1.5 percent growth in the second quarter of thisyear, which ended June 30, and three percent in the third quarter.This will take growth for the year to 1.4 percent, the same as predictedby the Bank of Canada in its April forecast.Although the figure is below the growth of the Canadian economyin recent years, it is a robust performance, considering the manufacturingsector was battered in the last year by the slump in theU.S. housing and auto markets, rising energy costs and a highCanadian dollar. The RBC also agreed with the Bank of Canadathat 2009 would be a better year for Canada, predicting growth at2.5 percent.One strong area, cites the report, is the jobs front, noting that theeconomy has created an average of 26,000 jobs per month so farinto 2008, as opposed to the U.S., which has shed about 65,000jobs a month, with most recent cuts amounting to another 62,000,the sixth straight month of losses.Still, discounting the first quarter, the RBC sees Canada’s economyoutperforming the U.S. in the next three quarters and next year.The bank sees oil prices starting to go downward and the Canadiandollar will also go down from the current near-parity position toabout 94 cents (U.S.) by year’s end and 89 cents by the end of2009. The report predicts the housing market will cool due to deterioratingaffordability, however, it will be less pronounced thanwhat is currently happening in the U.S.They project that Saskatchewan will lead all provinces in economicgrowth this year and next, followed by Alberta. Ontario andNewfoundland and Labrador will lag, but are expected to showsome improvement next year.•SERVING THE WORLDFOR OVER 75 YEARSSpecializing in 4/4 Hardwood LumberCummings Lumber Co. Inc.P.O. Box 6, Troy, Pa 16947Phone: 570-297-4771Fax: 570-297-2766Web: www.clc1.comRoy Cummings Jr. - Presidentroy@clc1.comLarry Cordner - Saleslarry@clc1.comChip Cummings - Saleschip@clc1.comQUEBEC TRENDS - Continued from page 20to increase total Canadian mill stocks to 15.4 million board feet,continued the report. Weather continued to play a major role acrossthe province, with persistent rainfall keeping it from drying outafter June’s deluge. It was hoped that the scheduled July holidayshutdowns would provide some extra time for logging activity toresume fully.The Forest Products Association of Canada (FPAC) recentlysigned a Memorandum of Understanding with the Assembly ofFirst Nations (AFN) that sees First Nations and forest industryleaders agreeing to work together to strengthen Canada’s forestsector through economic development initiatives and businessinvestments, strong environmental stewardship and the creation ofPlease turn the pageSEPTEMBER/2008 85