Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEFInfectious and Respiratory DiseasesMalaria is the deadliest, most disabling and most economically damaging mosquito-bornedisease worldwide. Warming affects its range, and extreme weather events can precipitatelarge outbreaks. This study documents the fivefold increase in illness following a six-weekflood in Mozambique, explores the surprising role of drought in northeast Brazil, and projectschanges for malaria in the highlands of Zimbabwe.3,000 African children die each day from malaria.Image: Pierre Virot/WHOWest Nile virus (WNV) is an urban-based, mosquito-borne infection, afflicting humans, horsesand more than 138 species of birds. Present in the US, Europe, the Middle East and Africa,warm winters and spring droughts play roles in amplifying this disease. To date, there havebeen over 17,000 human cases and over 650 deaths from WNV in North America.Culex pipiens mosquitoes breed in city drains.Image: Biopix.dkLyme disease is the most widespread vector-borne disease in the US and can cause long-termdisability. Lyme disease is spreading in North America and Europe as winters warm, andmodels project that warming will continue to shift the suitable range for the deer ticks thatcarry this infection.The deer tick that carries Lyme disease.Image: Scott Bauer/USDA Agricultural Research Service9 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARYAsthma prevalence has quadrupled in the US since 1980, and this condition is increasingin developed and underdeveloped nations. New drivers include rising CO 2, which increasesthe allergenic plant pollens and some soil fungi, and dust clouds containing particles andmicrobes coming from expanding deserts, compounding the effects of air pollutants and smogfrom the burning of fossil fuels.Asthma rates have quadrupled in the US since 1980.Image: Daniela Spyropoulou/DreamstimeExtreme Weather EventsHeat waves are becoming more common and more intense throughout the world. This studyexplores the multiple impacts of the highly anomalous 2003 summer heat wave in Europe andthe potential impact of such “outlier” events elsewhere for human health, forests, agriculturalyields, mountain glaciers and utility grids.Temperatures in 2003 were 6°C (11°F) above long-term summer averages.Image: NASA/Earth Observatory
THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEFFloods inundated large parts of Central Europe in 2002 and had consequences for humanhealth and infrastructure. Serious floods occurred again in Central Europe in 2005. The returntimes for such inundations are projected to decrease in developed and developing nations, andclimate change is expected to result in more heavy rainfall events.Floods have become more common on most continents.Image: Bill Haber/APNatural and Managed SystemsForests are experiencing numerous pest infestations. Warming increases the range,reproductive rates and activity of pests, such as spruce bark beetles, while drought makes treesmore susceptible to the pests. This study examines the synergies of drought and pests, and thedangers of wildfire. Large-scale forest diebacks are possible, and they would have severeconsequences for human health, property, wildlife, timber and Earth’s carbon cycle.Droughts and pest infestations contribute to the rise in forest fires.Image: John McColgan, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Fire Service10 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARYHealthy crops need adequate water and freedom from pests and disease.Image: Ruta Saulyte/DreamstimeCoral reefs nourish fish and buffer shorelines.Image: OceanaAgriculture faces warming, more extremes and more diseases. More drought and floodingunder the new climate, and accompanying outbreaks of crop pests and diseases, can affectyields, nutrition, food prices and political stability. Chemical measures to limit infestations arecostly and unhealthy.Marine ecosystems are under increasing pressure from overfishing, excess wastes, loss ofwetlands, and diseases of bivalves that normally filter and clean bays and estuaries. Evenslightly elevated ocean temperatures can destroy the symbiotic relationship between algae andanimal polyps that make up coral reefs, which buffer shores, harbor fish and containorganisms with powerful chemicals useful to medicine. Warming seas and diseases may causecoral reefs to collapse.Water, life’s essential ingredient, faces enormous threats. Underground stores are beingoverdrawn and underfed. As weather patterns shift and mountain ice fields disappear, changesin water quality and availability will pose growth limitations on human settlements, agricultureand hydropower. Flooding can lead to water contamination with toxic chemicals andmicrobes, and natural disasters routinely damage water-delivery infrastructure.Millions of people walk four hours per day to obtain clean water.Image: Pierre Virot/WHO
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change FuturesHealth, Ecolo
Page 4 and 5: Table of ContentsIntroductionPart I
Page 6 and 7: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYClimate is the con
Page 8 and 9: the past decade, an increasing prop
Page 12 and 13: THE INSURER’S OVERVIEW:A UNIQUE P
Page 14: Regulators and governments can empl
Page 17 and 18: THE PROBLEM:CLIMATE IS CHANGING, FA
Page 19 and 20: Figure 1.3 GreenlandEXTREMESOne of
Page 21 and 22: 20 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAYWholl
Page 23 and 24: Figure 1.5 Global Weather-Related L
Page 25 and 26: Climate signals in rising costs fro
Page 27 and 28: CLIMATE CHANGE CANOCCUR ABRUPTLYPer
Page 29 and 30: 28 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAYCCF-I
Page 31 and 32: communities, salinizing ground wate
Page 33 and 34: Health is the final common pathway
Page 35 and 36: 34 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DIS
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2.4 Malaria and Floods in Mo
Page 39 and 40: Figure 2.61920-1980CASE STUDIES38 |
Page 41 and 42: A MALARIA SUCCESSThe New York Times
Page 43 and 44: A new flavivirus, Usutu, akin to WN
Page 45 and 46: 44 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DIS
Page 47 and 48: One analysis (Vanderhoof and Vander
Page 49 and 50: BIODIVERSITYBUFFERS AGAINSTTHE SPRE
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2.15 RagweedMOLDSLong-term f
Page 53 and 54: ASTHMA COSTSTODAYexamples, the Afri
Page 55 and 56: Stott et al. (2004) calculate that
Page 57 and 58: In the summer of 2005, northern Spa
Page 59 and 60: a better understanding of subpopula
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60 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSFLOODSFO
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MOSQUITO- AND SOIL-BORNE DISEASESEC
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Table 2.2 Direct and Indirect Healt
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HEALTH AND ECOLOGICALIMPLICATIONSOu
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68 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMSCAS
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Figure 2.27 Soybean Sudden Death Sy
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78 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMSTHE
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HARMFUL ALGALBLOOMSFigure 2.32 Red
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CASE STUDIES 84 | NATURAL AND MANAG
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“Climate change is one of the wor
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94 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS• Incr
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Extreme weather events are a partic
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98 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSTable 3.
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100 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSdemand
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102 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSClimate
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These include:Solar Photovoltaic Pa
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• Social and economic factors in
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Finally, new technologies need to b
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110 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSBRETTON
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112 | APPENDICESAppendix A. Summary
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Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
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Climate sensitivity for small-scale
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diffuse and do not manifest in sing
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APPENDIX D.LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ATT
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Carmenza RobledoGruppe OekologieEMP
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126 | BIBLIOGRAPHYBibliographyAAAAI
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128 | BIBLIOGRAPHYChordas, L. Epide
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHYKalkstein, L. S.,
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHYMills, E. The ins
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHYRose, J. B., Epst
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHYVandyk, J. K., Ba
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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