Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequencies of Offensive Air Mass A Days for the Five CitiesCityAverageBAnalogDifference:Analog vs.AverageHottestSummerDifference:Analog vs.Hottest SummerDetroit 9.2%New York 11.2%Philadelphia 14.3%St. Louis 17.7%Washington, DC 13.7%48.9%48.9%48.9%48.9%48.9%431.5% 38.0% 28.7%336.6% 26.1% 87.3%242.0%176.2%256.9%41.3%42.4%34.8%18.4%15.3%40.5%A Offensive air masses are MT+ and DT.B Average for period 1945-2003.Source: Sheridan, 2005.Table B.2 Heat-Related Mortality During the Average, Analog, and Hottest Historical SummersDetroit New York Philadelphia St. Louis WashingtonMetropolitan areapopulation A 4.4million9.3million5.1million2.6million4.9millionAverage summer heatrelatedmortality B 47 470 86 216 81Average summer mortalityrate per 100,000 population1.07 5.05 1.69 8.30 1.65Analog summer heatrelatedmortality582 2,747 450 627 283Analog summer mortalityrate per 100,000 population13.23 29.54 8.82 24.12 5.78Hottest historical summermortality C 308 1,277 412 533 188Hottest historical summermortality rate per 100,000 7.00 13.73 8.08 20.50 3.84populationYear of hottest historicalsummer occurrence1988 1995 1995 1988 1980Analog percent deaths abovehottest historical summer 89.0 115.1 9.2 17.6 50.5A Based on 2000 U.S. Census Bureau data.B Numbers represent revised values.C Based on a period from 1961-1995.115 | APPENDICES
The number of consecutive days within offensive air masses is also very unusual for the analog summer. There are twovery long consecutive day strings of MT+ and DT air masses: from July 10 through July 22 and from August 2through August 17. Using Washington, DC, as an example, in 1995, the hottest summer during the 59-year historicperiod, there were 12 offensive air mass days between July 14 and August 4, but no more than 3 of these dayswere consecutive. In Philadelphia, the 1995 heat wave was more severe than in Washington, DC, yet in terms ofconsecutive days, it was still far less extreme than the analog summer. From July 13 to August 4, 1995, there were20 offensive air mass days, but with several breaks when non-offensive air mass days lasted at least two days.Maximum and minimum temperatures during the analog summer are far in excess of anything that has occurred inrecorded history. Using Philadelphia as an example again, 15 days recorded maximum temperatures that exceed38 o C (100 o F) during the analog summer. On average, such an extreme event occurs less than once a year.During the hottest-recorded summer over the past 59 years, 1995, this threshold was reached only once. Fifteendays in the analog summer break maximum temperature records, and from August 4 to August13, nine of the tendays break records. In addition, four days break the all-time maximum temperature record for Philadelphia, 41 o C(106 o F), with three of these occurring during the 10-day span in August.APPENDIX C. FINANCE: PROPERTY INSURANCE DYNAMICS116 | APPENDICESOverall costs from catastrophic weather-related events rose from an average of US $4 billion per year during the1950s, to US $46 billion per year in the 1990s, and almost double that in 2004. In 2004, the combinedweather-related losses from catastrophic and small events were US $107 billion, setting a new record. (Total lossesin 2004, including non-weather-related losses, were US $123 billion; Swiss Re 2005a). With HurricanesKatrina and Rita, 2005 had, by September, broken all-time records yet again. Meanwhile, the insured percentageof catastrophic losses nearly tripled from 11% in the 1960s to 26% in the 1990s and reached 42% (US$44.6 billion) in 2004 (all values inflation-corrected to 2004 dollars, Munich Re NatCatSERVICE).Damage to Physical Structures and Other Stationary Property: The current pattern of increasing property lossesdue to catastrophic events — averaging approximately US $20 billion/year in the 1990s — continues to risesteadily (Swiss Re 2005). Assuming that trends observed over the past 50 years continue, average annual insuredlosses reach US $50 billion (in US $2004 dollars) by the year 2025. 2 Peak-year losses are significantly higher.The industry largely expects this and does its best to maintain adequate reserves and loss-prevention programs.The industry is caught unawares, however, by an equally large number of losses from relatively “small-scale” orgradual events that are not captured by insurance monitoring systems such as Property Claims Services (whichonly tabulates losses from events causing over US $25 million in insurance claims). Data on these relatively smalllosses collected by Munich Re between 1985 and 1999 indicate that such losses are collectively equal in magnitudeto those from catastrophic events (Vellinga et al. 2001). 3 These include weather-related events such as lightningstrikes 4 (which cause fires as well as damages to electronic infrastructure), vehicle accidents from inclementweather, soil subsidence that causes insured damages to structures, local wind and hailstorms, etc. Sea level rise,changes in the patterns of infectious diseases, and the erosion of air and water quality are important classes ofgradual events and impacts, the consequences of which are also not captured by statistics on extreme events.Losses from these small-scale events grow as rapidly as those for catastrophic events, with disproportionately moreimpact on primary insurers than on reinsurers (who commonly offer only “excess” layers of coverage beyond acontractually agreed trigger level).1Source: Munich Re NatCatService.2This is generally consistent with the global projection made by the UNEP-Finance Initiative and Innovest (2002), and by the Association ofBritish Insurers (2004) for the UK.3Even this estimate is conservative, as not all losses are captured by this more inclusive approach.4Lightning has been cited as responsible for insurance (presumably property) claims (Kithil 1995), but estimates vary widely. St. Paul InsuranceCo. reported paying an average 5% of US $332 million in lightning-related claims annually between 1992 and 1996 (Kithil 2000). Theportion of these costs that are related to electricity disturbances is not known. One report from the Department of Energy states that of thelightning-related losses experienced at its own facilities, 80% were due to voltage surges (Kithil 2000). Hartford Steam Boiler Insurance &Inspection Co. has observed that claims are far more common during warm periods. This is corroborated by Schultz (1999). In addition tothese losses, lightning strikes are responsible for 85% of the area burned by wildfires (Kovacs 2001).
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Climate Change FuturesHealth, Ecolo
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Table of ContentsIntroductionPart I
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYClimate is the con
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the past decade, an increasing prop
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THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEFInfectious
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THE INSURER’S OVERVIEW:A UNIQUE P
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Regulators and governments can empl
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THE PROBLEM:CLIMATE IS CHANGING, FA
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Figure 1.3 GreenlandEXTREMESOne of
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20 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAYWholl
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Figure 1.5 Global Weather-Related L
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Climate signals in rising costs fro
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CLIMATE CHANGE CANOCCUR ABRUPTLYPer
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28 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAYCCF-I
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communities, salinizing ground wate
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Health is the final common pathway
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34 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DIS
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Figure 2.4 Malaria and Floods in Mo
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Figure 2.61920-1980CASE STUDIES38 |
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A MALARIA SUCCESSThe New York Times
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A new flavivirus, Usutu, akin to WN
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44 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DIS
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One analysis (Vanderhoof and Vander
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BIODIVERSITYBUFFERS AGAINSTTHE SPRE
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Figure 2.15 RagweedMOLDSLong-term f
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ASTHMA COSTSTODAYexamples, the Afri
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Stott et al. (2004) calculate that
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In the summer of 2005, northern Spa
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a better understanding of subpopula
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60 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSFLOODSFO
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MOSQUITO- AND SOIL-BORNE DISEASESEC
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Page 67 and 68: HEALTH AND ECOLOGICALIMPLICATIONSOu
Page 69 and 70: 68 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMSCAS
Page 71 and 72: Figure 2.27 Soybean Sudden Death Sy
Page 79 and 80: 78 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMSTHE
Page 81 and 82: HARMFUL ALGALBLOOMSFigure 2.32 Red
Page 85 and 86: CASE STUDIES 84 | NATURAL AND MANAG
Page 93 and 94: “Climate change is one of the wor
Page 95 and 96: 94 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS• Incr
Page 97 and 98: Extreme weather events are a partic
Page 99 and 100: 98 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSTable 3.
Page 101 and 102: 100 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSdemand
Page 103 and 104: 102 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSClimate
Page 105 and 106: These include:Solar Photovoltaic Pa
Page 107 and 108: • Social and economic factors in
Page 109 and 110: Finally, new technologies need to b
Page 111 and 112: 110 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSBRETTON
Page 113: 112 | APPENDICESAppendix A. Summary
Page 118 and 119: Climate sensitivity for small-scale
Page 120 and 121: diffuse and do not manifest in sing
Page 122 and 123: APPENDIX D.LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ATT
Page 124: Carmenza RobledoGruppe OekologieEMP
Page 127 and 128: 126 | BIBLIOGRAPHYBibliographyAAAAI
Page 129 and 130: 128 | BIBLIOGRAPHYChordas, L. Epide
Page 131 and 132: Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
Page 133 and 134: 132 | BIBLIOGRAPHYKalkstein, L. S.,
Page 135 and 136: 134 | BIBLIOGRAPHYMills, E. The ins
Page 137 and 138: 136 | BIBLIOGRAPHYRose, J. B., Epst
Page 139 and 140: 138 | BIBLIOGRAPHYVandyk, J. K., Ba
Page 142: Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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