Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYClimate is the context for life on earth. Global climatechange and the ripples of that change will affect everyaspect of life, from municipal budgets for snowplowingto the spread of disease. Climate is already changing,and quite rapidly. With rare unanimity, the scientificcommunity warns of more abrupt and greater changein the future.Many in the business community have begun tounderstand the risks that lie ahead. Insurers andreinsurers find themselves on the front lines of thischallenge since the very viability of their industry restson the proper appreciation of risk. In the case ofclimate, however, the bewildering complexity of thechanges and feedbacks set in motion by a changingclimate defy a narrow focus on sectors. For example,the effects of hurricanes can extend far beyond coastalproperties to the heartland through their impact onoffshore drilling and oil prices. Imagining the cascadeof effects of climate change calls for a new approachto assessing risk.The worst-case scenarios would portray events sodisruptive to human enterprise as to be meaningless ifviewed in simple economic terms. On the other hand,some scenarios are far more positive (depending onhow society reacts to the threat of change). In additionto examining current trends in events and costs, andexploring case studies of some of the crucial healthproblems facing society and the natural systemsaround us, “Climate Change Futures: Health,Ecological and Economic Dimensions” uses scenariosto organize the vast, fluid possibilities of a planetaryscalethreat in a manner intended to be useful topolicymakers, business leaders and individuals.Most discussions of climate impacts and scenarios stayclose to the natural sciences, with scant notice of thepotential economic consequences. In addition, thetechnical literature often “stovepipes” issues, zeroing inon specific types of events in isolation from the realworldmosaic of interrelated vulnerabilities, events andimpacts. The impacts of climate change cross nationalborders and disciplinary lines, and can cascadethrough many sectors. For this reason we all have astake in adapting to and slowing the rate of climatechange. Thus, sound policymaking demands theattention and commitment of all.While stipulating the ubiquity of the threat of climatechange, understanding the problem still requires a lensthrough which the problem might be approached.“Climate Change Futures” focuses on health. Theunderlying premise of this report is that climate changewill affect the health of humans as well as theecosystems and species on which we depend, andthat these health impacts will have economicconsequences. The insurance industry will be at thecenter of this nexus, both absorbing risk and, throughits pricing and recommendations, helping business andsociety adapt to and reduce these new risks. Ourhope is that Climate Change Futures (CCF) will notonly help businesses avoid risks, but also identifyopportunities and solutions. An integrated assessmentof how climate change is now adversely affecting andwill continue to affect health and economies can helpmobilize the attention of ordinary citizens around theworld and help generate the development of climatefriendlyproducts, projects and policies. With earlyaction and innovative policies, business can enhancethe world’s ability to adapt to change and helprestabilize the climate.WHY SCENARIOS?CCF is not the first report on climate change to usescenarios. The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) employs six of the very long-term andvery broad scenarios representative of the manyscenarios considered. Other organizations haveexplored scenarios of climate trajectories, impacts forsome sectors and the mix of energy sources, toexplore the potential consequences of trends andactions taken today. Scenarios are not simpleprojections, but are stories that present alternativeimages of how the future might unfold. Handledcarefully, scenarios can help explore potentialconsequences of the interplay of multiple variablesand thereby help us to make considered andcomprehensive decisions.The IPCC scenarios, contained in the Special Reporton Emissions Scenarios (SRES), make projections intothe next century and beyond and assume that climatechange will be linear and involve gradual warming.But events of the last five years have overtaken theinitial SRES scenarios. Climate has changed faster andmore unpredictably than the scenarios outlined. Manyof the phenomena assumed to lie decades in the futureare already well underway. This faster pace of changeon many fronts indicates that more sector-specific,short-term scenarios are needed.5 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWith this in mind, the CCF scenarios are designedto complement the far-reaching IPCC framework.Drawing upon the full-blown, long-term scenariosoffered by the IPCC, we have developed twoscenarios that highlight possibilities inadequatelyconsidered in past assessments of climate changeimpacts.Both CCF scenarios envision a climate context of gradualwarming with growing variability and more weatherextremes. Both scenarios are based on “business-asusual,”which, if unabated, would lead to doubling ofatmospheric CO 2from pre-industrial values by midcentury.Both are based on the current climate trends forsteady warming along with an increase in extremes,with greater and costlier impacts. The compilation ofextreme weather events of all types shows a clearincrease over the past decade in the number ofextremes occurring in both hemispheres (see figurebelow).Overall costs from catastrophic weather-related eventsrose from an average of US $4 billion per year duringthe 1950s, to US $46 billion per year in the 1990s,and almost double that in 2004. In 2004, the combinedweather-related losses from catastrophic andsmall events were US $107 billion, setting a newrecord. (Total losses in 2004, including non-weatherrelatedlosses, were US $123 billion; Swiss Re2005a). With Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005had, by September, broken all-time records yet again.Meanwhile, the insured percentage of catastrophiclosses nearly tripled from 11% in the 1960s to 26% inthe 1990s and reached 42% (US $44.6 billion) in2004 (all values inflation-corrected to 2004 dollars;Munich Re NatCatSERVICE).As an insurer of last resort, the US Federal EmergencyManagement Agency has experienced escalatingcosts for natural disasters since 1990. Moreover, inKEY POINTS1. Warming favors the spread of disease.2. Extreme weather events create conditions conduciveto disease outbreaks.3. Climate change and infectious diseases threatenwildlife, livestock, agriculture, forests and marinelife, which provide us with essential resources andconstitute our life-support systems.4. Climate instability and the spread of diseases arenot good for business.5. The impacts of climate change could increaseincrementally over decades.6. Some impacts of warming and greater weathervolatility could occur suddenly and become widespread.7. Coastal human communities, coral reefs andforests are particularly vulnerable to warming anddisease, especially as the return time betweenextremes shortens.8. A more positive scenario is that climate reachesa new equilibrium, allowing a measure of adaptationand the opportunity to rapidly reduce the globalenvironmental influence of human activities,namely fossil fuel combustion and deforestation.9. A well-funded, well-insured program to developand distribute a diverse suite of means to generateenergy cleanly, efficiently and safely offers enormousbusiness opportunities and may present themost secure means of restabilizing the climate.10. Solutions to the emerging energy crisis must be throroughlyscrutinized as to their life cycle impacts onhealth and safety, environmental integrity, globalsecurity and the international economy.Extreme Weather Events by RegionNumber of Events500400300200100South AmericaOceaniaEuropeAfricaNorth America(including Caribbean, Central America)Asia (including Russia)0Year7579 83 87 91 95 99 02These data are taken from EMDAT (Emergency Events Database) from 1975 to 2002. Compiled by the Center for Research on the Epidemiologyof Disasters (CRED) at the Universite-Catholique de Louvain in Brussels, Belgium, this data set draws from multiple disaster relief organizations(such as OFDA and USAID), and is therefore skewed toward events that have large human impacts. The data taken from EMDAT were createdwith the initial support of WHO and the Belgian government.
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change FuturesHealth, Ecolo
Page 4 and 5: Table of ContentsIntroductionPart I
Page 8 and 9: the past decade, an increasing prop
Page 10 and 11: THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEFInfectious
Page 12 and 13: THE INSURER’S OVERVIEW:A UNIQUE P
Page 14: Regulators and governments can empl
Page 17 and 18: THE PROBLEM:CLIMATE IS CHANGING, FA
Page 19 and 20: Figure 1.3 GreenlandEXTREMESOne of
Page 21 and 22: 20 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAYWholl
Page 23 and 24: Figure 1.5 Global Weather-Related L
Page 25 and 26: Climate signals in rising costs fro
Page 27 and 28: CLIMATE CHANGE CANOCCUR ABRUPTLYPer
Page 29 and 30: 28 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAYCCF-I
Page 31 and 32: communities, salinizing ground wate
Page 33 and 34: Health is the final common pathway
Page 35 and 36: 34 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DIS
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2.4 Malaria and Floods in Mo
Page 39 and 40: Figure 2.61920-1980CASE STUDIES38 |
Page 41 and 42: A MALARIA SUCCESSThe New York Times
Page 43 and 44: A new flavivirus, Usutu, akin to WN
Page 45 and 46: 44 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DIS
Page 47 and 48: One analysis (Vanderhoof and Vander
Page 49 and 50: BIODIVERSITYBUFFERS AGAINSTTHE SPRE
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2.15 RagweedMOLDSLong-term f
Page 53 and 54: ASTHMA COSTSTODAYexamples, the Afri
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In the summer of 2005, northern Spa
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a better understanding of subpopula
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60 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSFLOODSFO
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MOSQUITO- AND SOIL-BORNE DISEASESEC
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Table 2.2 Direct and Indirect Healt
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HEALTH AND ECOLOGICALIMPLICATIONSOu
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68 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMSCAS
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Figure 2.27 Soybean Sudden Death Sy
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78 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMSTHE
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HARMFUL ALGALBLOOMSFigure 2.32 Red
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CASE STUDIES 84 | NATURAL AND MANAG
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“Climate change is one of the wor
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94 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS• Incr
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Extreme weather events are a partic
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98 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSTable 3.
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100 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSdemand
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102 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSClimate
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These include:Solar Photovoltaic Pa
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• Social and economic factors in
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Finally, new technologies need to b
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110 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSBRETTON
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112 | APPENDICESAppendix A. Summary
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Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
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Climate sensitivity for small-scale
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diffuse and do not manifest in sing
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APPENDIX D.LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ATT
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Carmenza RobledoGruppe OekologieEMP
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126 | BIBLIOGRAPHYBibliographyAAAAI
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128 | BIBLIOGRAPHYChordas, L. Epide
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHYKalkstein, L. S.,
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHYMills, E. The ins
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHYRose, J. B., Epst
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHYVandyk, J. K., Ba
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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