Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

Table 2.1 Economic Losses in European Nations in Euros from Flooding in 2002Economic LossesInsured Losses (approx.)Austria 2-3 bn 400 mCzech Republic 2-3 bn 900 mGermany 9.2 bn 1.8 bnEurope > 15 bn 3.1 bnBetween June and December 2002 the Euro exchange rate varied, with the lowest rates noted in December 2002 when1 Euro = 0.93537 USD and the highest rate in June when 1 Euro = 1.068 USD.THE FUTURECCF-I: ESCALATING IMPACTSFloods are taking an enormous toll on lives and infrastructurein developed and developing countries. TheForesight Report on Future Flooding commissioned bythe UK government (Clery 2004) concluded that thenumber of Britons at risk from flooding could swell from1.6 million to 3.6 million, and that the annual damagesfrom flooding could soar from the current annual figureof US $2.4 billion to about US $48 billion — 20 timesgreater — in the coming decades if construction measuresare not taken to meet the challenge.CCF-II: SURPRISE IMPACTSJust as with heat waves, the return periods for heavyprecipitation and extensive flooding events maydecrease markedly in Europe, Asia, Africa, and in theAmericas (Katz 1999). Repeated flooding will challengethe recovery capacities of even the apparentlyleast vulnerable nations.Prolonged, repeated and extensive flooding — alongwith melting of glaciers — can undermine infrastructure,cause extensive damage to homes and spread molds,inundate and spread fungal diseases in croplands, andalter the integrity of landscapes. Runoff of nutrients fromfarms and sewage threaten to substantially swell the 150“dead zones” now forming in coastal waters worldwide(UNEP 2005).SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONSResearch is needed to better understand the immediateand chronic physical and mental health impacts offloods. Better disease surveillance is needed duringand after flooding, especially for long-termpsycho/social impacts as a result of great losses andthe need for medical and social support in the immediateaftermath and during the recovery period.EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSClimate forecasting can improve preparation for naturaldisasters. Specific measures include:• Movement of populations to higher ground.• Use of levees and sandbags.• Organizing boats for transport and rescue.• Storage of food, water and medicines.In countries where flood risk is likely to increase, a comprehensivevulnerability-based emergency managementprogram of preparedness, response and recovery hasthe potential to reduce the adverse health impacts offloods. These plans need to be formulated at local,regional and national levels and include activities todecrease vulnerabilities before, during and after floods.GENERAL MEASURES• Appropriate housing and commercial developmentpolicies.• Transportation systems tailored to protect open space,forests, wetlands and shorelines. (Forests act assponges for precipitation; riparian (riverside) standsprotect watersheds; and wetlands absorb runoff andfilter discharges flowing into bays and estuaries.)• Livestock farming practices (especially ConcentratedAnimal Feeding Operations or CAFOs) must be regulatedand properly buffered (for example, surroundedby wetlands) to reduce wastes discharged into waterwaysduring floods (see Townsend et al. 2003).• Insurance policies can directly incorporate the potentialfor flooding, especially where it has previouslyoccurred, to reduce the number of people and structures“in harm’s way.”• Economic and social incentives are needed to resettlepopulations away from flood plains.63 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSCASE STUDIES