Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

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Figure 2.20 Projected Excess Deaths in Five US Cities Under Europe-2003 Conditions12001000Washington, DCPhiladelphiaDetroitSt. LouisNew YorkExcess Deaths8006004002000Jun Jul AugMonthEXCESS MORTALITYIN THE ANALOG EVENTSToday, approximately 1,000 people die of heat-relatedcauses in the 44 largest US cities and between 1,500and 2,000 for the entire country (Kalkstein and Greene1997). With this in mind, the number of excess deathsestimated for each of the five cities under analog heatwave conditions is staggering. For New York Cityalone, excess mortality during the analog summer isnearly 3,000.• Excess deaths (which are assumed to be heat-attributed)were very high for the analog summer, with anestimated total across all locations that was morethan five times the average. New York’s total aloneexceeded the national summer average for heatrelateddeaths.• New York and St. Louis had the highest death ratesfor the analog summer due to the many high-risesand brick row-homes with black tar roofs thatabsorb a lot of heat.57 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSKEY PROJECTIONSFROM THE USANALOG STUDIES• Summer frequencies of the unhealthy, “offensive airmasses” (see Appendix B for definitions) rangedfrom almost 200% to over 400 % above averageduring the analog summer in the five cities.Frequencies also exceeded the hottest summer overthe past 59 years by a significant margin.• Consecutive days of unprecedented length withunhealthy air masses were a hallmark of the analogheat wave, and the strings of days occurred on twodifferent occasions during the summer.• All-time records for maximum and high minimum temperaturewere broken in all cities, and, in somelocales, there were consecutive days breaking alltimerecords.SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONSHEAT/HEALTH WATCH WARNING SYSTEMSEarly warning systems have been shown to effectivelyreduce mortality associated with heat waves (Kalkstein2000; Ebi et al. 2004; Smith 2005). The principalcomponents of early warning systems include meteorologicalforecasts, models to predict health outcomes,effective response plans, and monitoring and evaluationplans, set within disaster management strategies.The meteorological component should incorporate projectedincreases in climate variability by consideringscenarios of weather anomalies outside the historicrange. Models of adverse health outcomes need toproject changes in incidence accurately, specificallyand rapidly enough for effective responses to beimplemented. Because early warnings alone are notsufficient to guarantee that necessary actions will betaken, prevention programs need to be designed withCASE STUDIES
a better understanding of subpopulations at risk andthe information necessary for effective response towarnings. Monitoring and evaluation of both theresponse system and individual interventions need tobe built into system design to ensure the efficient andeffective use of resources.RESPONSES INCLUDE:animal and freshwater fisheries management; andwhat effect such extremes would have on electricitygeneration and transmission. These analogs can be utilizedmuch like modeled meteorological data sets andthe methods can be expanded to include other midlatitudelocations around the world.Figure 2.21• Improved social networks and neighborhoodresponse plans to transport isolated persons to facilitieswith adequate air conditioning (malls, theaters)• Transport vehicles• Air-conditioned facilities in group-housing settings• Prepared and well-distributed treatment facilities.58 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSCASE STUDIESA number of structural changes can ameliorate thehealth impacts of heat waves by reducing the heatislandeffect. (These same measures would stimulateproduction and open markets for alternative and energy-efficientenergy technologies. They are examples ofharmonizing adaptation and mitigation. See Part III forfurther discussion.)STRUCTURAL MEASURES INCLUDE:• “Green buildings,” with relevant building codes andinsurance policies• Roof gardens to absorb heat• Tree-lined streets to absorb heat• Adequate public transport systems to decreasetraffic congestion• Bicycle and walking paths• “Smart growth” of urban and suburban areasto minimize commutes• Hybrid and renewable energy-powered vehicles toreduce pollution.OTHER MEASURES INCLUDE:• Improved power grids• “Smart” technologies that improve efficiency of utilitygrids by favoring high-use areas during specifichours of the day• Distributed power generation to complement andsupplement grids (discussed in Part III).RESEARCH IMPLICATIONSQuestions remain regarding agricultural yields inresponse to such an extreme summer; how these conditionswould impact water resources, livestock, wildWildfires in New South Wales, Australia, summer 2003.Image: CSIRO Forestry and Forests Products Bushfire Behaviourand Management GroupCASE 2. ANALOG FOR NEWSOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIAGeetha RanmuthugalaAnthony J McMichaelTord KjellstromBACKGROUNDHeat, drought, and bushfires are not new to Australia.Between 1967 and 1999, bushfires in Australia resultedin 223 deaths and 4,185 injuries with a cost ofover US $2.5 billion, not including timber losses. Thedrought in southeastern Australia in the austral summerof 2003 was particularly intense and sparked widespreadfires. The January fires alone destroyed over500 homes, claimed four lives in Canberra andcaused over US $300 million in damages (AustralianGovernment 2004).The heat wave that Europe experienced during August2003 revealed the susceptibility of even the industrialaffluent world, rich in infrastructure, when maximumtemperatures soared to 10°C above the historical average,and minimum temperatures reached record highlevels. In July 1995, the heat wave in Chicago (USA),where maximum temperatures ranged between33.9°C and 40.0°C, resulted in an excess of 700heat-attributable deaths, an 85% increase in mortalitycompared to the previous year (CDC 1995). Whatwould be the impact on mortality if Australia were toexperience a heat wave similar to that of the Europeansummer of 2003?
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Climate Change FuturesHealth, Ecolo
Page 4 and 5:
Table of ContentsIntroductionPart I
Page 6 and 7:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYClimate is the con
Page 8 and 9: the past decade, an increasing prop
Page 10 and 11: THE CASE STUDIES IN BRIEFInfectious
Page 12 and 13: THE INSURER’S OVERVIEW:A UNIQUE P
Page 14: Regulators and governments can empl
Page 17 and 18: THE PROBLEM:CLIMATE IS CHANGING, FA
Page 19 and 20: Figure 1.3 GreenlandEXTREMESOne of
Page 21 and 22: 20 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAYWholl
Page 23 and 24: Figure 1.5 Global Weather-Related L
Page 25 and 26: Climate signals in rising costs fro
Page 27 and 28: CLIMATE CHANGE CANOCCUR ABRUPTLYPer
Page 29 and 30: 28 | THE CLIMATE CONTEXT TODAYCCF-I
Page 31 and 32: communities, salinizing ground wate
Page 33 and 34: Health is the final common pathway
Page 35 and 36: 34 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DIS
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2.4 Malaria and Floods in Mo
Page 39 and 40: Figure 2.61920-1980CASE STUDIES38 |
Page 41 and 42: A MALARIA SUCCESSThe New York Times
Page 43 and 44: A new flavivirus, Usutu, akin to WN
Page 45 and 46: 44 | INFECTIOUS AND RESPIRATORY DIS
Page 47 and 48: One analysis (Vanderhoof and Vander
Page 49 and 50: BIODIVERSITYBUFFERS AGAINSTTHE SPRE
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2.15 RagweedMOLDSLong-term f
Page 53 and 54: ASTHMA COSTSTODAYexamples, the Afri
Page 55 and 56: Stott et al. (2004) calculate that
Page 57: In the summer of 2005, northern Spa
Page 61 and 62: 60 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSFLOODSFO
Page 63 and 64: MOSQUITO- AND SOIL-BORNE DISEASESEC
Page 65 and 66: Table 2.2 Direct and Indirect Healt
Page 67 and 68: HEALTH AND ECOLOGICALIMPLICATIONSOu
Page 69 and 70: 68 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMSCAS
Page 71 and 72: Figure 2.27 Soybean Sudden Death Sy
Page 79 and 80: 78 | NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMSTHE
Page 81 and 82: HARMFUL ALGALBLOOMSFigure 2.32 Red
Page 85 and 86: CASE STUDIES 84 | NATURAL AND MANAG
Page 93 and 94: “Climate change is one of the wor
Page 95 and 96: 94 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS• Incr
Page 97 and 98: Extreme weather events are a partic
Page 99 and 100: 98 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSTable 3.
Page 101 and 102: 100 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSdemand
Page 103 and 104: 102 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSClimate
Page 105 and 106: These include:Solar Photovoltaic Pa
Page 107 and 108: • Social and economic factors in
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Finally, new technologies need to b
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110 | FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONSBRETTON
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112 | APPENDICESAppendix A. Summary
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Table B.1 Summer Percentage Frequen
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Climate sensitivity for small-scale
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diffuse and do not manifest in sing
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APPENDIX D.LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ATT
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Carmenza RobledoGruppe OekologieEMP
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126 | BIBLIOGRAPHYBibliographyAAAAI
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128 | BIBLIOGRAPHYChordas, L. Epide
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Ford, S.E. & Tripp, M.R. Diseases a
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132 | BIBLIOGRAPHYKalkstein, L. S.,
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134 | BIBLIOGRAPHYMills, E. The ins
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136 | BIBLIOGRAPHYRose, J. B., Epst
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138 | BIBLIOGRAPHYVandyk, J. K., Ba
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Infectious and Respiratory Diseases
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