Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS1984 and 1999; Philadelphia, 1991 and 1993;Chicago, 1995).HEAT WAVESCASE 1. THE 2003 EUROPEAN SUMMERHEAT WAVE AND ANALOG STUDIESFOR US CITIESLaurence S. KalksteinJ. Scott GreeneDavid M. MillsAlan D. PerrinBACKGROUNDIn the past two decades, severe heat events affectingthousands of people have occurred in London,Calcutta, Melbourne and Central Europe. In the USthere is a well-documented pattern of increased urbanmortality as a result of heat waves in the past severaldecades (for example, St. Louis, 1980; New York,The summer of 2003 in Europe was most likely thehottest summer since at least AD 1500 (Stott et al.2004) and the event had human and environmentalimpacts far beyond what linear models have projectedto occur during this century. An event of similar magnitudein the United States could cause thousands ofexcess deaths in the inner cities and could precipitateextensive blackouts.THE ROLE OF CLIMATEHeat waves have become more intense and more prolongedwith global warming (Houghton et al. 2001),and the impacts are exacerbated by the disproportionatewarming at night that accompanies greenhousegas-induced warming (Easterling et al. 1997). Morehot summer days, higher maximum temperatures, higherminimum temperatures and an increase in heatindices (humidity and heat) have been observed in the20th century, and models project that these elementsare “very likely” to increase during the 21st century(Easterling et al. 2000).53 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSImage: PhotodiscCASE STUDIES