Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

MOSQUITO- AND SOIL-BORNE DISEASESECONOMIC DIMENSIONS62 | EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSCASE STUDIESMosquito populations flourish in the aftermath offloods. Surveillance of the population in the floodedparts of Czech Republic after the 1997 floods detectedthe first cases of West Nile virus to occur in CentralEurope (Hubalek et al. 1999).An outbreak of Valtice fever (caused by Tahyna virus)occurred in the Czech Republic after the 2002 floods(Hubalek et al. 2004). There is the potential for othermosquito-borne disease outbreaks in Europe after flooding,including Sindbis and Batai viruses, and the newlyemerged Usutu virus of the same family as West Nile(Weissenböck et al. 2002; Buckley et al. 2003).In addition, outbreaks of anthrax (soil-based) havebeen associated with floods in the Russian Federation(Buravtseva et al. 2002).Floods also flush toxic chemicals and heavy metals intosoils, aquifers and waterways. Many pesticides andpetrochemicals are persistent organic pollutants thatcan be carcinogens and suppress the immune system.Heavy metals — such as mercury and cadmium —can cause long-term cognitive and developmentaldelays. The impacts on wildlife can also be debilitating.These health and ecological issues are underinvestigation by the Czech Republic and the RussianFederation.MENTAL HEALTHThe mental health impacts of flooding stemming from thelosses can be devastating for some and last long pastthe event itself for others (Bennet 1970; Sartorius1990). A study in the US (Phifer et al. 1988) found thatmen with low occupational status and individuals 55-64years of age were at significantly high risk for psychologicalsymptoms. A study in the Netherlands on thehealth and well-being of people six months following aflood found that 15-20% of children had moderate tosevere stress symptoms and 15% of adults had verysevere symptoms of stress (Becht et al. 1998). A UKstudy found a consistent pattern of increased psychologicalproblems among flood victims in the five years followinga flood (Green et al. 1985).Floods often cause major infrastructure damage, includingdisruption to roads, rail lines, airports, electricitysupply systems, water supplies and sewage disposalsystems. The economic consequences are often greaterthan indicated by the physical effects of floodwatercoming into contact with buildings and their contents.The economic damages can affect development longafter the event. Damage to agricultural land, for example,can cause immediate crop damage and affectfood production in subsequent years via contaminationof soils or loss of topsoil. The implications for the insurancesector may vary from country to country, regionto region, depending on government health insuranceplans and what private insurers cover.Floods should be regarded as multi-strike stressors, withthe sources of stress including: (1) the event itself, (2)the disruption and problems of the recovery period,and (3) the worry and anxiety about the risk of recurrenceof the event (Tapsell et al. 2003). The fullimpact of a flood often for many affected is not appreciateduntil after people’s homes have been put backin order. The lack of insurance may exacerbate theimpacts of floods (Ketteridge and Fordham 1995).The majority of economic losses in 2002 were publicfacilities such as roads, railway lines, dikes, riverbeds,bridges and other infrastructure. The proportion ofinsured losses in Germany was about 20% (Munich Re2003). Prior to German reunification, almost all householdershad taken out state insurance against flood andother natural hazards. In the 1990s, the number of peoplewith this insurance declined. In many places, peoplewere not willing to pay for premiums. In contrast, in theCzech Republic the demand for insurance increased followingthe 1997 floods on the Odra and Morava.Rough cost estimates for the Elbe 2002 flood alone areapproximately US $3 billion in the Czech Republic andover US $9 billion in Germany (Munich Re 2003).Flooding in France the following year resulted in sevenfatalities and US $1.5 billion in economic losses, ofwhich US $1 billion was insured (Munich Re 2003).