Climate change futures: health, ecological and economic dimensions

diffuse and do not manifest in single “catastrophe” events. The lack of information is worrisome, as the industrylacks good grasp of its exposure as it does in the property/casualty lines. Life insurance “catastrophes” wereunknown for insurers prior to 9/11 and the massive heat mortality in Europe in summer 2003. To provide a frameof reference, ING Re’s Group Life estimates that a pandemic like that of 1918-1919 would result in a doubling ofgroup life payouts in the US alone of approximately US $30 billion to US $40 billion per year (Rasmussen 2005).Given that the US has about one-third of the world market in life insurance, this would imply US $90 billion to US$120 billion per year globally.Respiratory disease emerges as one of the most pervasive health impacts of climate change and the combustionof fossil fuels. One driver is an elevated rate of aeroallergens from more CO 2— that is predetermined to riseregardless of the energy trajectory, given the 100-year life time of these molecules in the atmosphere. Asthma,already a major and growing challenge for insurers in the late 20th century, becomes more widespread. This isaccompanied by an upturn in mold-related claims due to increased moisture levels in and around buildings.Exacerbating the problem, a variety of sources of increased airborne particulates (particularly PM2.5, the fine particulatematter equal to or less than 2.5 micrometers) also impact respiratory health and these arise from anincreased frequency of wildfires, major and minor dust storms associated with droughts and changing wind patterns,and air pollution patterns.Heat catastrophes are projected to become a growing issue throughout the world. This will increase mortalityand, along with water shortages, affect wildlife and livestock, forests and soils, and will put added stresses onalready stretched energy demands, generating additional greenhouse gases, without major changes in thesources of energy.Infectious diseases are afflicting a wide taxonomic range. In terms of human morbidity and mortality and ecosystemhealth and integrity, the role of infectious diseases is projected to increase in industrialized and in underdevelopedregions of the world, adding substantially to the accelerating spread of disease, and the loss of species andbiological impoverishment.In our scenarios, an array of other health problems become more prevalent in industrialized countries, althoughsocioeconomic buffers and public health interventions may buffer the impacts in the short-term. Food poisoningdue to spoilage — now a summertime phenomenon — can increase with more heat spells. Weather-related roadwayaccidents can increase as do an assortment of ills related to eroded water quality. There are also increasedrates of physical damage and drownings under our scenarios arising from natural catastrophes such as windstormsand floods.119 | APPENDICESUnder our scenarios, each of the above-mentioned developments is amplified considerably in developing nationsand in economies in transition (the emerging markets). Health and life insurance grows rapidly in these regionsduring the early part of the 21st century, but is slowed as insurers recognize the increasing losses and withdrawfrom these markets, or raise prices to levels at which their products becomes unaffordable.