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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning ...

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning ...

4.0 Interpreting a

4.0 Interpreting a Mangrove Vuneralility AssessmentTable 26. Vulnerability ranking of Douala Estuary, Cameroon.Rank 1 2 3 4 5 SExposure factorsTidal range >3 m 2–3 m 1.5–2.0 m 1–1.5 m 25 15–25 10–15 5–10 20% fruits andflowersMedium,including5–20% fruits orflowersMedium, withfew fruits orflowersLow (excludingwood)Mainly woodSeaward edge retreat None Some Moderate Significant Very significant 2Reduction in mangrove area None or little Some Moderate Significant Very significant 1Elevations within mangrovesSedimentation rates in mangrovesZone brackets60 cm +> 1 mm greaterthan RSLRZone brackets50–60 cm< 1 mm greaterthan RSLRZone brackets30–50 cmEqual to RSLRZone brackets20–30 cm< 1 mm lessthan RSLRZone brackets 1 mm less thanRSLRAdjacent coral reef resilience Very high High Moderate Low Very lowAdjacent sea grass resilience Very high High Moderate Low Very lowMangrove protection legislation Good Fairly good Moderate Poor None 3Adaptive capacity factorsElevations above mangrovesCommunity managementcapacityMigration areasvery availableMigration areasmostly availableSome migrationareas availableFew migrationareas availableNo migrationareas availableGood Fairly good Moderate Poor None 2Stakeholder involvement Good Fairly good Moderate Poor None 2Total 36Vulnerability score = 36 (total score) = 2.316 (number of rows)333The Douala Estuary mangroves of Cameroon haveoverall resilience but some inherent vulnerability dueto the low tidal range of the area. Vulnerability can bereduced by addressing the non-climate stressors onthe mangrove area, particularly those resulting fromhuman impacts, and by fostering management actionsthat enhance sedimentation. Priorities for adaptationplanning in mangrove areas that are located in suchlow tidal range regions are to plan inland migrationareas and strategic protected areas for mangroves,and to undertake management activities that enhanceaccretion within the mangroves.82 | Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Mangrove Systems

4.0 Interpreting a Mangrove Vuneralility AssessmentTable 27. Vulnerability ranking of Rufiji Delta, Tanzania.Rank 1 2 3 4 5 SExposure factorsTidal range >3 m 2–3 m 1.5–2.0 m 1–1.5 m 25 15–25 10–15 5–10 20% fruits andflowersMedium,including5–20% fruits orflowersMedium, withfew fruits orflowersLow (excludingwood)Mainly woodSeaward edge retreat None Some Moderate Significant Very significant 2Reduction in mangrove area None or little Some Moderate Significant Very significant 3Elevations within mangrovesSedimentation rates in mangrovesZone brackets60 cm +> 1 mm greaterthan RSLRZone brackets50–60 cm< 1 mm greaterthan RSLRZone brackets30–50 cmEqual to RSLRZone brackets20–30 cm< 1 mm lessthan RSLRZone brackets 1 mm less thanRSLRAdjacent coral reef resilience Very high High Moderate Low Very low 2Adjacent sea grass resilience Very high High Moderate Low Very lowMangrove protection legislation Good Fairly good Moderate Poor None 1Adaptive capacity factorsElevations above mangrovesCommunity managementcapacityMigration areasvery availableMigration areasmostly availableSome migrationareas availableFew migrationareas availableNo migrationareas availableGood Fairly good Moderate Poor None 4Stakeholder involvement Good Fairly good Moderate Poor None 3Total 3011Vulnerability score = 30 = 1.817The Rufiji Delta has some inherent resilience, havinga higher tidal range than Cameroon or Fiji and beingfed by a major river with high sediment inputs, whileapparently experiencing slight tectonic uplift. Theriver catchment is not currently predicted to receivereduced rainfall as a result of climate change, althoughthere is uncertainty. Much of the delta is also relativelysheltered from storm effects by a large offshoreisland (Mafia Island). While GIS analysis and forestassessment results showed resilience in the majorityof the mangrove area, including seaward sections,there have been losses of mangroves on the landwardClimate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Mangrove Systems | 83

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