Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning ...

4.0 Interpreting a Mangrove Vuneralility AssessmentTable 27. Vulnerability ranking of Rufiji Delta, Tanzania.Rank 1 2 3 4 5 SExposure factorsTidal range >3 m 2–3 m 1.5–2.0 m 1–1.5 m 25 15–25 10–15 5–10 20% fruits andflowersMedium,including5–20% fruits orflowersMedium, withfew fruits orflowersLow (excludingwood)Mainly woodSeaward edge retreat None Some Moderate Significant Very significant 2Reduction in mangrove area None or little Some Moderate Significant Very significant 3Elevations within mangrovesSedimentation rates in mangrovesZone brackets60 cm +> 1 mm greaterthan RSLRZone brackets50–60 cm< 1 mm greaterthan RSLRZone brackets30–50 cmEqual to RSLRZone brackets20–30 cm< 1 mm lessthan RSLRZone brackets 1 mm less thanRSLRAdjacent coral reef resilience Very high High Moderate Low Very low 2Adjacent sea grass resilience Very high High Moderate Low Very lowMangrove protection legislation Good Fairly good Moderate Poor None 1Adaptive capacity factorsElevations above mangrovesCommunity managementcapacityMigration areasvery availableMigration areasmostly availableSome migrationareas availableFew migrationareas availableNo migrationareas availableGood Fairly good Moderate Poor None 4Stakeholder involvement Good Fairly good Moderate Poor None 3Total 3011Vulnerability score = 30 = 1.817The Rufiji Delta has some inherent resilience, havinga higher tidal range than Cameroon or Fiji and beingfed by a major river with high sediment inputs, whileapparently experiencing slight tectonic uplift. Theriver catchment is not currently predicted to receivereduced rainfall as a result of climate change, althoughthere is uncertainty. Much of the delta is also relativelysheltered from storm effects by a large offshoreisland (Mafia Island). While GIS analysis and forestassessment results showed resilience in the majorityof the mangrove area, including seaward sections,there have been losses of mangroves on the landwardClimate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Mangrove Systems | 83