Carbon Dioxide and Earth's Future Pursuing the ... - Magazooms

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determined that “direct economic losses trended upward significantly over the past 24 years,”
but that “the trend disappears if considering the rapid increase of the annual total gross
domestic product of China, suggesting that the upward trend in direct economic losses is a
result of Chinese economic development.” They also stated that “there is no significant trend
in tropical cyclone casualties over the past 24 years,” and that it is only because “the Chinese
economy has been booming since the early 1980s” that there has been an increasing trend in
typhoon-caused economic losses between 1983 and 2006. And they additionally noted that
“after adjusting for inflation, wealth, and population," Pielke and Landsea (1998) and Pielke et
al. (2008) also "found no significant trend in economic losses caused by landfalling tropical
cyclones.”
Contemporaneously, Kubota and Chan (2009) created a unique dataset of TLP (tropical cyclone
landfall numbers in the Philippines) based on historical observations of TC tracks during the
period 1901-1940, which were obtained from Monthly Bulletins of the Philippine Weather
Bureau along with TLP data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the period
1945-2005, which they used to investigate the TC-global warming hypothesis. And by these
means the two researchers discovered, via the data plotted in the figure below, that “the TLP
has an apparent oscillation of about 32 years before 1939 and an oscillation of about 10-22
years after 1945.” Most important of all, they reported that “no long-term trend is found.” In
addition, they determined that “natural variability related to ENSO and PDO phases appears to
prevail in the interdecadal variability of TLP.”
Philippine tropical cyclone landfall numbers vs. year. Adapted from Kubota and Chan (2009).
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