BROADBAND THAILAND 2015 - Center for Ethics of Science and ...

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principles that define the zeitgeist and scope of the “meaningfulbroadband” approach (MBR 1.0 3 ).The next report (MBR 2.0), represented in Thailand by thisdocument, establishes feasibility by showing how MeaningfulBroadband could fulfill the explicit reforms of nationalgovernments. It also provides criteria that can be used bygovernments to consider why and how costs of broadbanddeployment should and could be shared between public andprivate sectors.This report is followed by MBR 3.0, which presents the roadmap.Not merely a set of recommendations offered to the government,the roadmap is an economic model which shows how therecommendations could be financed.Then, in MBR 4.0, we prescribe a series of working groups(composed of empowered leaders from governmental, business,and academic sectors) which will oversee the implementation ofrecommendations.The final report in this series (MBR 5.0) presents a transnationalAsian model for Meaningful Broadband. It suggests howcontinent-wide and “sub-regional” (e.g. ASEAN) structures couldbe tapped, or new coalitions formed, to bring the MeaningfulBroadband Paradigm to the entire continent.Linking the reforms advocated by the Kingdom of Thailand withbroadband deployment, the report herein describes twoalternative futures for Thailand, as indicated in the chart below:3 For MBR 1.0 reports see digitaldivide.org, IGADD.org (for Indonesia) and MeaningfulBroadband.org (for Thailand.)Meaningful Broadband Report 2.0 BROADBAND THAILAND 2015 12
FACTOR (2015)Penetration Rate (age 13+)BAU(Business As Usual)+37% population+17% householdsGDP Boost +0.90% up to 3.5%Inequality*Gini 0.48High/low 1:65MB(Meaningful Broadband)+74% population+54% householdsGini 0.35High/low 1:47Workforce Development -17% of KEI** +14% of KEI **Microfinance Growth +12% +320%Productivity Growth +7 (in rankings) +18 (in rankings)Investments Impacts +$3 billion +$9 billionR&D Impacts 0.26% of GDP 1.5% of GDPImpact of Stimulus II +0.80% of GDP +2.3% of GDP*Gini Coefficient refers to a quantitative index, ranking nations by their degree of inequality. High/Lowrefers to the gap between the highest paid 20% of workforce and the lowest paid 20% of workforce.**KEI = Knowledge Economy IndexOur narrative summary of this forecast is summarized below.A deeper analysis, backed up by documentation and data for eachof these nine points, is included in Analysis section of this report.The final section of the report lists Appendices, which provide amore precise summery of data used to formulate these forecasts.1. BROADBAND PENETRATION RATE: In 2010 the bestestimate of Thai broadband penetration is 3.4% ofhouseholds and about 12% of Thai individuals. (Overtime, the relevant measure will be individuals, nothouseholds, since personal mobile devices will constitute80% of all Thai users, according to predictions by GartnerDataquest.) Under the “business as usual” (BAU)scenario, projected for the year 2015, the penetrationMeaningful Broadband Report 2.0 BROADBAND THAILAND 2015 13
Page 1 and 2: Meaningful Broadband Working GroupC
Page 3 and 4: Meaningful Broadband Working GroupC
Page 8 and 9: 6. PRODUCTIVITY ...................
Page 10 and 11: Thailand’s Stimulus II, “Strong
Page 14 and 15: ate will rise to 17% of Thai househ
Page 16 and 17: majority) population, rather than t
Page 18 and 19: goals of the ministry of Science an
Page 20 and 21: METHODOLOGYSince the rise of the di
Page 22 and 23: Access Communication Public Company
Page 24 and 25: INTRODUCTIONIn a Bali Hotel in 2008
Page 26 and 27: First Thailand, Then the WorldThe C
Page 28 and 29: A “Wealth Effect”Behind the Mea
Page 30 and 31: Why Broadband is Crucial?Broadband
Page 32 and 33: Anthropologists are on full alert.
Page 34 and 35: NINE BROADBAND IMPACTSThis section
Page 36 and 37: If Thailand’s government and its
Page 38 and 39: 2. GDP GROWTHSummaryBy drawing upon
Page 40 and 41: The impact would be to grow the pur
Page 42 and 43: 3. INEQUALITYSummaryAlready one of
Page 44 and 45: 2) The income gaps between incomes
Page 46 and 47: Why Broadband May Defy the Kuznets
Page 48 and 49: In MB, the long-sought goals of tra
Page 50 and 51: 5. MICROFINANCESummaryMeaningful Br
Page 52 and 53: Enhance interaction between farm co
Page 54 and 55: peer nations. 85 Recognizing this f
Page 56 and 57: For a full review on Measuring Econ
Page 58 and 59: Kingdom)—suggesting that the comp
Page 60 and 61: Assuming investors become convinced
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Thailand would emphasize its role a
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University, Chiang Mai University,
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egarding the 128 billion baht effor
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Finally, the question of whether a
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the government plans for such conce
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Consumer Broadband Connection Growt
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Appendix 2Data sources and charts t
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Thailand 5.2 4.9 2.2 -2.0 -3.2 3.0
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The World Bank, “Information and
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• Per capita GDP in 1980 (GDP80)5
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In 2006, 3.4 percent of the populat
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Relation between the Country ICT Pe
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APPENDIX 3The following chart indic
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Thailand Economic MonitorThe World
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MLD is one of these generalized ine
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APPENDIX 4Labor Force Survey 2009Ba
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APPENDIX 5Global Microscope on the
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APPENDIX 6Malmquist Index 130The Ma
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The chart below links uncertain gov
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The chart below shows that, despite
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The Global Competitiveness Report 2
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APPENDIX 8R&D Expenditure and Gross
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Meaningful Broadband Report 2.0 BRO
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APPENDIX 9For an overview of best p
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Europe: Broadband Stimulus Snapshot
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Thailand’s Stimulus II, “Strong
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Peer to peer learning.Use of blogs,
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Economic Multiplier Impacts:This re
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Informal Economy:This refers to the
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M Factor:This refers to how “mean
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equired to follow restrictions agai
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MEANINGFUL BROADBAND WORKINGGROUP I
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Can’t markets, left to themselves
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How is the Office of the Prime Mini
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