BROADBAND THAILAND 2015 - Center for Ethics of Science and ...

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If Thailand’s government and its ICT stakeholders intervene toachieve Meaningful Broadband (MB), this penetration rate willnearly double by 2015, with 80% of this penetration based onwireless when we believe Wimax will contribute to a widespreadupcountry embrace of smart devices. This high rate of broadbandpenetration will allow Thailand to achieve a virtuous circle ofeconomic benefits depicted in subsequent section of the report.Furthermore, the MB scenario will produce a new source ofcompetitive advantage, establishing Thailand’s niche alongsidetoday’s high-broadband Asian nations (Japan, Singapore, Korea,Taiwan, South Korea, China, and Malaysia). 36 As free-tradebarriers fall, Thailand could become a competitive exporter oftelecommunications services. This benefit would accrue not justto ICT industries themselves, but to a range of ICT-driven verticalindustries 37 whose international success depends on cloudcomputing and other broadband-induced innovations.Analysis The combined effects of Gilder’s Law, 38 Metcalf’s Law, 39 andMoore’s Law, 40 which define predictable shifts inperformance/price ratios, will cause Thailand and othernations to benefit from technological innovations that spur anannual decrease in bandwidth and internet-related costsduring this period.36 Gartner Dataquest Insight, 16 July 2008 “Consumer Broadband Growth by Market, 2007-2012.”37 Gartner Dataquest Insight, 1 May 2009 “Government Stimulus Packages in Asia/Pacific Target Vertical IT Spending.”38 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Gilder39 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe's_law40 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_lawMeaningful Broadband Report 2.0 BROADBAND THAILAND 2015 36
Current Thai markets for mobile phones in upcountry willcontinue at four times the rate of the Bangkok MetropolitanArea (BMA), causing market forces (i.e., Thai mobile supplyIf Thailand’sgovernment and its ICTstakeholders interveneto achieve MeaningfulBroadband, penetrationrates could nearlydouble to 54 % ofhouseholds and 74% ofindividuals by 2015,with 80% of thispenetration based onwireless.chains) to compete in the effort to serve the Thai majoritypopulation. Mobile supply chains in Thailand, facing steadily decliningrevenue from voice and SMS services, will intensify theircompetition for value-added revenue from mobile dataservices. As this competition heats up outside the BMAmarket, prices in all parts of mobile supply chains will drop byas much as 30% per year – a factor that will increase furtherthe overall shift from products to services. New sources of international bandwidth via undersea cableswill enter Thailand to lessen the concentration of bandwidthlanding stations now controlled by a state-owned enterprise.This and other factors will cause Thailand’s bandwidth costs(currently extremely high, at 5,000 baht per unit vs. 1,000 bahtfor the same quantity of bandwidth available to advancednations) to drop steadily over the five year period of thisscenario. Smart phone handset costs will drop 30% per year in Thailandand in peer nations, as BMA markets become saturated, asmarketers become forced to meet TCO requirements of lowincomeusers, and as Asian markets become flooded withcheap massively produced products and services flowing fromChina.Meaningful Broadband Report 2.0 BROADBAND THAILAND 2015 37
Page 1 and 2: Meaningful Broadband Working GroupC
Page 3 and 4: Meaningful Broadband Working GroupC
Page 8 and 9: 6. PRODUCTIVITY ...................
Page 10 and 11: Thailand’s Stimulus II, “Strong
Page 12 and 13: principles that define the zeitgeis
Page 14 and 15: ate will rise to 17% of Thai househ
Page 16 and 17: majority) population, rather than t
Page 18 and 19: goals of the ministry of Science an
Page 20 and 21: METHODOLOGYSince the rise of the di
Page 22 and 23: Access Communication Public Company
Page 24 and 25: INTRODUCTIONIn a Bali Hotel in 2008
Page 26 and 27: First Thailand, Then the WorldThe C
Page 28 and 29: A “Wealth Effect”Behind the Mea
Page 30 and 31: Why Broadband is Crucial?Broadband
Page 32 and 33: Anthropologists are on full alert.
Page 34 and 35: NINE BROADBAND IMPACTSThis section
Page 38 and 39: 2. GDP GROWTHSummaryBy drawing upon
Page 40 and 41: The impact would be to grow the pur
Page 42 and 43: 3. INEQUALITYSummaryAlready one of
Page 44 and 45: 2) The income gaps between incomes
Page 46 and 47: Why Broadband May Defy the Kuznets
Page 48 and 49: In MB, the long-sought goals of tra
Page 50 and 51: 5. MICROFINANCESummaryMeaningful Br
Page 52 and 53: Enhance interaction between farm co
Page 54 and 55: peer nations. 85 Recognizing this f
Page 56 and 57: For a full review on Measuring Econ
Page 58 and 59: Kingdom)—suggesting that the comp
Page 60 and 61: Assuming investors become convinced
Page 62 and 63: Thailand would emphasize its role a
Page 64 and 65: University, Chiang Mai University,
Page 66 and 67: egarding the 128 billion baht effor
Page 68 and 69: Finally, the question of whether a
Page 70 and 71: the government plans for such conce
Page 72 and 73: Consumer Broadband Connection Growt
Page 74 and 75: Appendix 2Data sources and charts t
Page 76 and 77: Thailand 5.2 4.9 2.2 -2.0 -3.2 3.0
Page 78 and 79: The World Bank, “Information and
Page 80 and 81: • Per capita GDP in 1980 (GDP80)5
Page 82 and 83: In 2006, 3.4 percent of the populat
Page 84 and 85: Relation between the Country ICT Pe
Page 86 and 87:
APPENDIX 3The following chart indic
Page 88 and 89:
Thailand Economic MonitorThe World
Page 90 and 91:
MLD is one of these generalized ine
Page 92 and 93:
APPENDIX 4Labor Force Survey 2009Ba
Page 94 and 95:
APPENDIX 5Global Microscope on the
Page 96 and 97:
APPENDIX 6Malmquist Index 130The Ma
Page 98 and 99:
The chart below links uncertain gov
Page 100 and 101:
The chart below shows that, despite
Page 102 and 103:
The Global Competitiveness Report 2
Page 104 and 105:
APPENDIX 8R&D Expenditure and Gross
Page 106 and 107:
Meaningful Broadband Report 2.0 BRO
Page 108 and 109:
APPENDIX 9For an overview of best p
Page 110 and 111:
Europe: Broadband Stimulus Snapshot
Page 112 and 113:
Thailand’s Stimulus II, “Strong
Page 114 and 115:
Peer to peer learning.Use of blogs,
Page 116 and 117:
Economic Multiplier Impacts:This re
Page 118 and 119:
Informal Economy:This refers to the
Page 120 and 121:
M Factor:This refers to how “mean
Page 122 and 123:
equired to follow restrictions agai
Page 124 and 125:
MEANINGFUL BROADBAND WORKINGGROUP I
Page 126 and 127:
Can’t markets, left to themselves
Page 128:
How is the Office of the Prime Mini
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