BROADBAND THAILAND 2015 - Center for Ethics of Science and ...

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NINE BROADBAND IMPACTSThis section of the report explains and supports the Thai forecasts presented in the chart above.Like the chart, this section has nine parts or dimensions. Each refers to a separate aspect of theThai economy. In each case we explain how we arrived at the 2015 forecast for the Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Meaningful Broadband (MB) scenarios. Each of the nine sections has two parts:Summary and Analysis. Further back-up data regarding each of the nine factors appears in theAppendices.1. BROADBAND PENETRATIONSummaryWe estimate that, if Thailand continues to pursuebroadband without being guided by a coherentand holistic broadband policy (a scenario we call“Business as Usual” or BAU), the effect will be that 17% ofhouseholds and 37% of the national population will receivebroadband by 2015, combining fixed and wireless. We forecastthat the annual increase of smart devices will be 19% per yearaveraged over five years. (This assumes a broadband speed of aminimum of 256 kilobits per second, which is considered aminimum by OECD standards.) While this increase will contributemarginally to Thailand’s economy, it represents a 50-60% lowerbroadband penetration rate than what we can expect from mostother Asian peer nations by 2015, according to broadbandMeaningful Broadband Report 2.0 BROADBAND THAILAND 2015 34
forecast reports by four major consulting firms. 27 (The most exactpredictions supporting this scenario come from GartnerDataquest. 28 ) Thus, the slow pace of Thailand’s broadbandpenetration under BAU may cause Thailand’s competitivedisadvantage, 29 and it may close the window of opportunity nowavailable to Thailand to leapfrog into Next Generation Networks. 30Already ranking low (11 th ) on the rankings of Asia’s 16 broadbandpenetrated nations, 31 Thailand may drop by three points to 14under the BAU scenario. 32 Thanks to low broadband penetration,Thailand may continue to have slower broadband speeds andhigher internet prices than peer nations. 33 The combination ofslow speeds, high rates and low penetration will preventThailand’s emergence as a major innovator as Asia movestowards a model of digital convergence 34 for the entire continent.These predictions are based on Meaningful Broadband WorkingGroup secretariat’s analysis of several reports from proprietaryconsulting firms, which predict the country’s broadband future.Published in 2009 using 2008 data, these predictions wereadjusted in 2010 by Chulalongkorn researchers who interviewedthe reports’ authors. 3527 Business Monitor International, Thailand Telecommunications Report Q4, 2009, page 88. Our assessment is that, underthe MB, scenario, Thailand would leapfrog into the same pattern of broad deployment currently demonstrated by regionalleaders: Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and China and would reach parity with Malaysia and Viet Nam.28 Gartner Dataquest Report, 2008 “Consumer Broadband Growth by Market, 2007-2012.29 Business Monitor International, Thailand Telecommunications Report Q4, 2009, page 88. Our assessment is that, underthe MB, scenario, Thailand would leapfrog into the same pattern of broad deployment currently demonstrated by regionalleaders: Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and China and would reach parity with Malaysia and Viet Nam.30 An excellent assessment of the dynamics and competitive positioning for Next Generation Networks (NGN) can be foundin this OECD report: www.mobilein.com/NGN_Svcs_WP.pdf31 Business Monitor International Forecast, 200932 Gartner Dataquest Forecast, 200933 Briggs and Kelly Report demonstrates the links between broadband penetration rates and broadband prices andbroadband speed based on a study of international best practices of broadband-enabled nations. Highly penetratedbroadband nations such as Singapore experience much faster internet and enjoy lower prices than nations that have littlebroadband. For the reference to Briggs and Kelly and for a deeper analysis of this issue seewww.infodev.org/en/Document.565.pdf (page 13.)34 See www.digitalconvergence.eu35 Include Pyramid http://www.pyr.com, ADC http://www.adc.com , Gartner http://www.gartner.com, Yankeehttp://www.yankeegroup.com, and BMI http://www.businessmonitor.comMeaningful Broadband Report 2.0 BROADBAND THAILAND 2015 35
Page 1 and 2: Meaningful Broadband Working GroupC
Page 3 and 4: Meaningful Broadband Working GroupC
Page 8 and 9: 6. PRODUCTIVITY ...................
Page 10 and 11: Thailand’s Stimulus II, “Strong
Page 12 and 13: principles that define the zeitgeis
Page 14 and 15: ate will rise to 17% of Thai househ
Page 16 and 17: majority) population, rather than t
Page 18 and 19: goals of the ministry of Science an
Page 20 and 21: METHODOLOGYSince the rise of the di
Page 22 and 23: Access Communication Public Company
Page 24 and 25: INTRODUCTIONIn a Bali Hotel in 2008
Page 26 and 27: First Thailand, Then the WorldThe C
Page 28 and 29: A “Wealth Effect”Behind the Mea
Page 30 and 31: Why Broadband is Crucial?Broadband
Page 32 and 33: Anthropologists are on full alert.
Page 36 and 37: If Thailand’s government and its
Page 38 and 39: 2. GDP GROWTHSummaryBy drawing upon
Page 40 and 41: The impact would be to grow the pur
Page 42 and 43: 3. INEQUALITYSummaryAlready one of
Page 44 and 45: 2) The income gaps between incomes
Page 46 and 47: Why Broadband May Defy the Kuznets
Page 48 and 49: In MB, the long-sought goals of tra
Page 50 and 51: 5. MICROFINANCESummaryMeaningful Br
Page 52 and 53: Enhance interaction between farm co
Page 54 and 55: peer nations. 85 Recognizing this f
Page 56 and 57: For a full review on Measuring Econ
Page 58 and 59: Kingdom)—suggesting that the comp
Page 60 and 61: Assuming investors become convinced
Page 62 and 63: Thailand would emphasize its role a
Page 64 and 65: University, Chiang Mai University,
Page 66 and 67: egarding the 128 billion baht effor
Page 68 and 69: Finally, the question of whether a
Page 70 and 71: the government plans for such conce
Page 72 and 73: Consumer Broadband Connection Growt
Page 74 and 75: Appendix 2Data sources and charts t
Page 76 and 77: Thailand 5.2 4.9 2.2 -2.0 -3.2 3.0
Page 78 and 79: The World Bank, “Information and
Page 80 and 81: • Per capita GDP in 1980 (GDP80)5
Page 82 and 83: In 2006, 3.4 percent of the populat
Page 84 and 85:
Relation between the Country ICT Pe
Page 86 and 87:
APPENDIX 3The following chart indic
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Thailand Economic MonitorThe World
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MLD is one of these generalized ine
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APPENDIX 4Labor Force Survey 2009Ba
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APPENDIX 5Global Microscope on the
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APPENDIX 6Malmquist Index 130The Ma
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The chart below links uncertain gov
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The chart below shows that, despite
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The Global Competitiveness Report 2
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APPENDIX 8R&D Expenditure and Gross
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Meaningful Broadband Report 2.0 BRO
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APPENDIX 9For an overview of best p
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Europe: Broadband Stimulus Snapshot
Page 112 and 113:
Thailand’s Stimulus II, “Strong
Page 114 and 115:
Peer to peer learning.Use of blogs,
Page 116 and 117:
Economic Multiplier Impacts:This re
Page 118 and 119:
Informal Economy:This refers to the
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M Factor:This refers to how “mean
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equired to follow restrictions agai
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MEANINGFUL BROADBAND WORKINGGROUP I
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Can’t markets, left to themselves
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How is the Office of the Prime Mini
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