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ILCD Handbook: Framework and requirements for LCIA models and indicators First edition Also the conservation-potential nature of materials is important: copper does not become depleted when it is used, it can only become dispersed over the world in low concentrations. In principle, given enough energy and money, recollection is possible but not feasible in today‘s practice. For energy carriers, the situation is different: the energy carrier is not conserved, although the energy is. What is lost is the quality or potential to use that energy. Exergy is an important way to measure this. In fact, exergy as a measure of resource depletion is slowly growing in popularity, mainly because it combines aspects of quantity and quality. Finally, it is necessary to assess how it is possible to maintain our current needs and habits at the same quality as we have come to expect, and what extra efforts are required to ensure that. This may turn out to be the appropriate question in the context of sustainable use of resources, and exergy may well provide a key to this. We can see, that given a basic level of technology and enough stimulus through increased need or reduced availability, humans will be able to find new resources, develop more advanced technologies, seek out substitutes, and apply sustainability principles. Indeed this challenge is ―potentially the biggest business opportunity since the industrial revolution‖ (David Middleton WBCSD, UK). 3 Requirements for Areas of Protection 28
ILCD Handbook: Framework and requirements for LCIA models and indicators First edition 4 Requirements for specific impact categories This chapter provides an overview of the requirements for each impact category for the: Framework and Scope – outlining the context and general approach for the impact assessment for the categories. Environmental Mechanism (or cause-effect chain) – outlining which pathways are generally considered when modelling between the emissions/resources to the Area of Protection. Recommendations for the Midpoint and Endpoint indicators are highlighted. Criteria for Model Evaluation. 4.1 Climate change 4.1.1 Framework and scope Climate change involves a number of environmental mechanisms that affect both the AoPs ‗Human Health‘ and ‗Natural Environment‘. Climate change models are, in general, developed to assess the future impact on climate resulting from different policy scenarios. The environmental mechanisms used for this impact category have a somewhat different structure, compared to the fate, effect and damage steps applied to many of the other impact categories. Man-made climate change is caused by the emission of greenhouse gases (and by other activities influencing their atmospheric concentration). Greenhouse gases are substances with the ability to absorb infrared radiation from the earth (radiative forcing). When modelling the radiative forcing of an emission, the change in concentration and radiative forcing is determined, taking into account the residence time of the substance. A globally-recognised model (the Bern model) has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that calculates the radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases and branded them Global Warming Potentials (GWP). The IPCC‘s ‗GWPs‘ are recommended for use at midpoint. Firstly, at midpoint the GWPs are used directly as characterisation factors. Secondly, these factors are used to express a combined fate and effect (in terms of radiative forcing), which is then coupled to a modelling of a resulting temperature increase, using the residence time and the radiative forcing of the greenhouse gas. Thirdly, the temperature rise results in damage to Human Health and ecosystems, and here several effects are considered, such as an increase in malaria and malnutrition (for Human Health) or disappearance of a species and change in biomass 20 (for ecosystems). 4.1.1.1 Environmental Mechanism (cause-effect chain) Figure 4-1 presents the cause-effect chain for climate change from emission to damage, illustrating the most important pathways (see bold arrows). 20 The change in biomass refers to change in crop productivity (e.g food and wood). This effect can be considered by both the area of protection ‗Natural Environment‘ and ‗Natural resources‘. In this document, this type of effect was considered to be part of effects on ecosystems (AoP Natural Environment). 4 Requirements for specific impact categories 29
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