Connecting Global Priorities Biodiversity and Human Health

the potential tradeoffs and synergies in addressing
these challenges.
Addressing the direct and underlying drivers of
biodiversity loss, poverty and ill health, under
present and future challenges also ultimately
requires behavioural change by individuals,
communities, organizations, industries,
businesses and governments. Understanding,
awareness and appreciation of the diverse values
of biodiversity, ecosystems and the services they
deliver underpin the combined willingness of
millions of individuals to undertake purposeful
actions to address these drivers of change (see
Chapter 16). Greater awareness of the values of
biodiversity and ecosystem services also allows
individuals and governments to assess more
accurately the trade-offs of their policies and
decisions (CBD, 2013).
2. Current Trends and Alternatives
1.1 Population pressures
The increase in the exploitation of natural
resources since the 20th century is in part
attributable to a rapid and sustained increase in
the global population.. The world population, now
7.2 billion people, will likely increase to between
9.2 billion and 9.9 billion in 2050 and between 9.6
billion and 12.3 billion in 2100 (80% probability
levels). Much of the increase is expected to happen
in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and
a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline
(Gerland et al. 2014). While population is expected
to decline in some regions, notably in Europe, the
overall global population is expected to increase,
on average, by over 10% through to 2030, with the
largest population growth occurring in low and
low-to-middle income countries (UN-DESA 2015).
The greatest population density has also been
projected to occur across areas that are already
densely populated, including coastal regions in
which communities are facing sea level rise and
other threats posed by climate change (The Earth
Institute, 2006). The highest birth rates and largest
increase in number of women of reproductive age
are expected in Africa, where the highest rates of
maternal and child mortality persist, and access
to family planning is lowest (UN DESA, 2015).
Population growth may have some positive
consequences. For example, some economists
have argued that population growth induces
technological innovation, and provides
development benefits including agricultural
innovation and intensification (e.g. Boserup
1965; Das Gupta 2011). However, population
expansion also places increased demand on
healthcare systems and can greatly extenuate
pressures on natural resources. In particular, rapid
population growth in high fertility countries can
create a range of economic, social, health and
environmental challenges as well as for governance
(lagging investments in health, education, and
infrastructure). (Brown 20014; Bongaarts 2013;
Gerland et al 2015)
Among the most robust empirical findings in the
literature on fertility transitions are that higher
rates of contraceptive use and female education are
associated with faster fertility decline (Hirschman
1994; Sen 1999). These suggest that the projected
rapid population growth could be moderated by
greater investments in family planning programs
to satisfy the unmet need for contraception
(Petersen et al 2013), as well as investments in
girls’ education.
Greater investment in the education of girls and
women, improved access to and awareness of
birth control and family planning would not only
improve human health and well-being directly, it
would also help slow and reverse trends among
countries with the highest projected growth
rates and concomitant pressures on ecosystems
(Speidel et al. 2007; Sachs 2008; Population and
Environment 2007). However, in many cases,
economic development and healthcare systems
have not kept apace with the growing needs of
the fastest-growing populations, particularly
in low-income countries already struggling to
expand healthcare services to women and girls
(The Lancet 2012). In regions with the highest
projected population growth rates, notably Sub-
Saharan Africa, there remains a largely unmet
need for access to contraception, a reduction of
252 Connecting Global Priorities: Biodiversity and Human Health