DESIGNING PROJECTS IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING WORLD

In Section 2.5 you also explored linkages among the
controlling variables. When connections are strong,
crossing one threshold could cause others to be
crossed, with severe consequences. These linkages
also need to be considered when sequencing threshold-avoiding
interventions.
Table 7 The subjective probability of when a threshold is likely to be crossed
Time-horizon within which threshold may be crossed (years)
Likelihood of crossing threshold 5 10 15 20
Unlikely C A
Possible D C A
Likely B D C A
In a hypothetical system A might be soil depth, B the social network that underpins communal range management,
C the minimal level of ground cover needed to regulate soil loss and D the minimum number of animals
per household needed to sustain the community.
Examples of interventions that can reduce options
• Allowing traditional arrangements for cooperative
management of land or water to lapse in favour of
individualistic production.
• Adoption of a more productive cattle breed and allowing
the decline of small-stock, camels and the traditional
cattle breed.
• Building long-term fixed infrastructure rather than
movable and adaptable constructions.
• Installing powerful pumps that make water available
to some individuals but exceed long-term recharge
rates and permanently lower the water table.
• Clearing trees to plant crops.
• Abandoning all traditional crop varieties in favour of
high-yield hybrids.
• Becoming dependent on the vagaries of a small number
of input or product markets at the expense of
traditional bartering systems.
WAYS TO DEAL WITH POTENTIAL CONFLICTS BETWEEN INTERVENTIONS
An interactions matrix is a useful way to explore potential
conflicts between interventions. Preferably stakeholders
would be involved through the Multi-Stakeholder
Engagement and Governance Component. Interventions
are arrayed against each other on vertical and horizontal
axes of the matrix, and in consultation with stakeholders,
synergies or conflicts among interventions are noted in
the cells of the matrix. For example, if interventions A
and B are synergistic, note this in the green A / B box, but
if they conflict, note this in the red B/A box.
A B C D E F
A
x
B
x
C
x
D
x
E
x
F
X
Figure 25 Matrix of interventions.
An example of a conflict is an intervention to pump groundwater for irrigated crop production that lowers
water levels in wells. An example of a synergy is the integration of livestock and crop production that enhances
soil fertility and improves livestock nutrition. The matrix is designed to show only direct interactions, but secondary
and higher order effects should also be considered.
Appendices 101