DESIGNING PROJECTS IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING WORLD

BOX L
Example: different domains in a mixed cropping system in Niger
A desktop RAPTA analysis of a mixed cropping
system in Niger 12 drew on published knowledge of
critical biophysical and economic thresholds that
have important implications for sustainable food
security. Villages had been mapped into one of
four quadrants defined by their proximity to these
thresholds along axes that represented an index
of environmental sustainability and an index of
economic sustainability (see figure below). A village
in any quadrant other than the bottom left in the
figure below will struggle to return to the bottom left
(desirable) quadrant because once critical thresholds
for environmental or economic security have been
crossed there are well-identified processes that
reinforce further unsustainable outcomes. These are
examples of different domains of the system.
Source: Hiernaux and
Ayantunde, 2004, cited
by Grigg et al, 2015.
12 Grigg et al. (2015) see Resource links at end of section, citing published system conceptualisations by Hiernaux & Turner (2002) and Hiernaux
& Ayandtunde (2004).
quantitative ways. There are whole fields of theory
and practice in this area and it is not the intent of this
report to summarize them.
A common vision is powerful but care is needed,
because it may not be possible for stakeholders to
agree on a common vision for the future. Even if they
do, it is not wise to imply that a complex system can
be intentionally and successfully “steered” to realize
the agreed future. Instead, frame this step as enhancing
the likelihood that the system can be better
understood and navigated with improved chances of
moving away from “undesired” futures, and possibly
towards a range of more “desired” futures (See Box
O Adaptation Pathways in Options and Pathways).
Therefore, the following approaches add value:
• Ask questions about whether the system is currently
in a “desirable” state. Envisage a range of characteristics
of future “desirable” systems (or domains) 13 ,
and compare them to the expected future system,
based on understanding the current trajectory
(which may be desirable now, but may become less
desirable over time: for example, due to increasing
incidence of drought due to climate change).
• Ask questions about “undesirable” futures. Sometimes
it is easier for stakeholders to articulate what
is undesirable as a future, or as characteristics of
such a future. It is often easier to design interventions
which help to avoid undesirable futures than
to navigate towards desirable ones.
13 In the resilience literature these can be referred to as stability domains
or regimes. See Glossary for definition of stability domain.
64 RAPTA guidelines for project design