DESIGNING PROJECTS IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING WORLD

shocks. In the System Description component, you
identified previously experienced shocks. In this
step you will work with stakeholders to consider the
resilience of specific parts of the system to these,
and other shocks that can be anticipated. Be sure
to consider trends or shocks that may be at different
scales in the system (e.g. collapse in global markets
for your produce, outbreaks of disease or crop
failures in a small community), see Box M. Use the
System Description to help you identify connections
and vulnerabilities within the system that you may
have been unaware of before, and also identify any
system properties that aid in recovery (e.g. insurance
mechanisms, reserves of food or fuel).
• Where possible, identify thresholds and the likelihood
of them being crossed. Recognize where such
thresholds may exist. However, more research may
be needed to understand if there is a threshold and
how close the system is to it.
• The outputs of this step include a shared understanding
among all stakeholders of the kind of
shocks they can expect, critical points of no return
that will hamper recovery, and system properties
that will promote recovery from shocks. These outputs
will inform the components for designing interventions
and adaptive implementation pathways.
(See Box N).
Step 4 Identify the potential benefits of maintaining
current system identity, adaptation and/or transformation
of the system
In the previous step, you considered the risk of the
system shifting into a different domain when critical
points of no return are crossed (e.g. land degradation
reaches such a point that recovery is not possible
in the short term). Where such changes are judged
inevitable due to multiple pressures, it is a cue that
adaptation and/or transformation responses may be
necessary for coping with these changes. In this step
you will scope out the benefits of, and options for,
adaptative or transformative actions.
If the system is currently satisfying stakeholders’
needs and aspirations (i.e. it is in a desirable system
domain) and the chance of an unwanted domain
shift, or transformation, is judged to be sufficiently
low for the chosen timespan and goals defined in
Scoping and Theory of Change, then investing in
a mix of specified and general resilience measures
to maintain the domain is a prudent option (e.g.
investment in insurance, reserves, communication
systems for rapid, coordinated response across
scales and sectors).
If the chance of an unwanted transformation, or
domain shift within, the chosen timespan is judged
to be high, then a realistic option is to invest in intentional
transformation to a different desirable system
(e.g. investment in changed cropping practices to
fulfil environmental accreditation requirements of an
international market to attract foreign investment).
If the system is locked into an unwanted domain
by, for example, land degradation, over-population
or land tenure rules, and is unable to shift to a preferred
domain without external intervention, then
the options include seeking external investment in a
shift to the desired domain – for example through
land rehabilitation, land tenure reform and the
establishment of new local industries – or investing in
transformation to a new system.
Activities in this step include:
• Based on the findings of the previous step, work
with stakeholders to evaluate the benefits and risks
of undertaking actions that will build the resilience
of the system, or those that will transform the system
to cope with shocks while continuing to provide
for the needs and aspirations of stakeholders.
• Describe the adaptive capacity, and the set of options
for alternative domains, and whether the transitions
are likely, given the trends in drivers and likely shocks
identified. Establish whether the situation is resolvable
through adaptation. This step may dovetail with the
findings from other existing tools, like social impact
assessment, that may have been used in the past.
• Where the situation is not resolvable through adaptation,
assess whether the system can be transformed.
Where, and at what scales, is transformation
needed? What options exist? What is needed
to build transformability?
Step 5 Summarise resilience status and adaptation/
transformation needs
• Develop a text summary of the system assessment
that documents the insights from Steps 1-4 , and
your conclusions with respect to resilience and the
need for adaptation or transformation.
• Summarise the system assessment, ready for further
analysis in the Options and Pathways component.
RAPTA guidelines for project design 67