The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World

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Evolution of autonomous robotic systems. The next two decades will see significant advances in autonomy and machine learning, to include the emergence of robots working together in groups and as swarms. New and powerful robotic systems will be used to perform complex actions, make autonomous decisions, deliver lethal force, provide ISR coverage, and speed response times over wider areas of the globe. Open source design. Greater connectivity between states, groups, and individuals will facilitate more sharing of ideas and designs, which users can then modify, change, or otherwise improve to optimize them for their own purposes. By 2035, a new shared design “ecosystem” may evolve to provide a wide range of customizable plans for a range of hardware, to include defense and military applications. Emergence of micro/nano-satellites and near-space capabilities. Micro/nano-satellites, as well as ultra-high altitude aircraft and balloons, will continue to replace large satellites because they are considerably cheaper and faster to build and launch. These advances will likely lead to improved reliability, with networks of small satellites and stratospheric swarms performing the tasks previously reserved exclusively for large satellites. In 2035, military advantages will not only be derived from a single technology but also from the integration of many technologies in systemic and coherent ways. For example, the (now) rapid advance of self-driving cars is as much about the wide availability of cheap GPS and high-quality terrain maps as it is the development of on-board environment sensing capabilities. This suggests the need to better integrate geospatial data with military robotic systems in the future. Furthermore, rather than civilian “spin-off” applications from military research and development efforts, military technological change will be “spin-on” as advances come from civilian and foreign investments in technologies for non-military purposes. The disruptive potential of this development will fully emerge when adversaries begin to experiment with the design, construction, and speedy refinement of a range of IEDs, drones, firearms, or other weapons. Emerging Measure/Countermeasure Competitive Spaces Technological change will result in new types of competitive interactions among military forces. The most pressing of these will be the contest of “hiders” vs. “finders” on the battlefield. Adversaries will continue to offset U.S. airpower and other long-range strike advantages by developing well-protected underground facilities, hardened fiber optic networks, and numerous high quality decoys, both virtual and physical. They will also focus on developing long-range strike capabilities and an evolving array of sensor and missile technologies to limit U.S. power projection capabilities. Regional reconnaissance-strike complexes will target the expensive, few, and/or easily locatable bases and platforms upon which current U.S. forward presence relies. Evolving measure/countermeasure competitions are likely to result from several important trends: Proliferation of advanced radio-frequency weapons. Advances in phased-array technology will facilitate the development of beam-focusing systems, which will permit high-powered radio frequency (HPRF) weapons to degrade or destroy very precisely versus omnidirectional systems. This will lead to new applications for area denial, crowd control, and the destruction of a range of electronic equipment Availability of non-nuclear EMP. Non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) weapons will allow for the discriminate and precise targeting of a range of electronics-based systems. The next two decades will see these weapons integrated into air, ground, and surface systems 17
providing adversaries the capability to disrupt, degrade, and disable components of U.S. and allied C4/ISR networks. Robotics as a force multiplier. Emerging autonomous robotic systems are being increasingly used to augment, rather than simply replace, individuals and platforms. The augmentation of human systems with robotics, particularly swarming, will permit longer duration missions, enable greater lethality, improve the ability to protect capital platforms from attack, and increase individual human and unit performance. Advances in electromagnetic warfare techniques will provide new methods to engage the circuitry and software of weapons systems, suggesting the emergence of rapidly evolving sensor/countersensor battles. Electronic warfare will be a race won by the force that can swiftly identify, understand, and optimize signals to counter radar and sensor systems. The search for weak signals against cluttered backgrounds will be augmented by enhanced data processing and storage, as well as large scale interpretive computing capabilities. Furthermore, the proliferation of sensors is likely to encourage the development of small and/or stealthy robotic systems that operate below detection thresholds. As industrial-scale robotics manufacturing evolves, future warfare may see a rebalance away from militaries built around the few, expensive, and highly-capable platforms to many, cheap, and “good enough” systems. Proliferated Information Technologies Very powerful information technologies will be widely available around the world by 2035, including wireless handheld or even brain-interfaced devices with advanced levels of connectivity. More modern developing states will continue to construct comprehensive national information technology infrastructures consisting of fiber-optic and cellular networks that far exceed the current state of the art. Potential competitors will have access to huge volumes of commerciallyavailable geospatial and other geophysical data that once cost billions and was available to only to the richest and most technically-competent countries. Proliferated information technologies are likely to result from several important trends: Regional C3/ISR parity. Potential adversaries will likely develop and deploy advanced C3/ISR capabilities that can be coupled to precision and area weaponry. As a range of sensors, information networks, information processing, and data fusion capabilities becomes widely available to potential adversaries from high-end states to lower-end insurgent and irregular forces, U.S. military forces may be identified, tracked, targeted, and attacked at range. Exploitation of C3/ISR vulnerabilities. Technologies that can damage, spoof, confuse, or disrupt integrated battle networks will become increasingly available. U.S. and partner C3/ISR systems will require enhanced system protection, greater network redundancy, and automated defenses capable of reacting in a highly dynamic environment. The Joint Force might also exploit the opportunity to target adversary networks lacking sufficient hardening or protection. Advanced information analysis and exploitation. Growing digital inter-connectedness and the linking of the Internet to the physical world will likely create an ‘Internet of Things’ which will further increase the amount of information generated, processed, and stored. Future software developments are likely to focus on new algorithms, and optimization techniques will assist in making sense of these large data sets. Quantum information science. The successful development of quantum computers might increase the ability to understand, model, and predict behaviors of very complex systems such 18
Page 1 and 2: The Joint Force in a Contested and
Page 3 and 4: Executive Summary The Joint Operati
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents Foreword ........
Page 7 and 8: challenges that will impact the con
Page 9 and 10: Section 1 - The Future Security Env
Page 11 and 12: encourage current allies and partne
Page 13 and 14: highly connected and globally-prese
Page 15 and 16: Human Geography and the Future Join
Page 17 and 18: Emergence of global cities as inter
Page 19 and 20: criminal activities continues to bl
Page 21: lead to new means of signature cont
Page 25 and 26: materials and functions are develop
Page 27 and 28: military power will be closely link
Page 29 and 30: members within the United States it
Page 31 and 32: direct assault on the U.S. homeland
Page 33 and 34: following the collapse of the Sovie
Page 35 and 36: from adversaries, as opposed to cou
Page 37 and 38: will be backed by increasingly capa
Page 39 and 40: harm and outcomes between the conce
Page 41 and 42: in protecting the integrity of crit
Page 43 and 44: This in turn led to the creation of
Page 45 and 46: Section 3 - Implications for the Jo
Page 47 and 48: Contain. To employ the Joint Force
Page 49 and 50: chemical, biological, radiological,
Page 51 and 52: missions, the Joint Force might con
Page 53 and 54: Anticipating that more adversaries
Page 55 and 56: Exclusion in order to enforce open
Page 57: Conclusion “The primary purpose o

The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World

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