The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World

Section 2 - Contexts of Future Conflict
“Context decodes the origins, meaning, character, and consequences of warfare.” 12
Conflict and war in 2035 cannot be understood by the simple identification of a set of individual
trends and conditions. Instead, the intersection and interaction of many discrete trends and
conditions will ultimately change the character of future conflict and illuminate the reasons why
the Joint Force may be called on to address threats to U.S. national interests. In fact, conflict in
2035 is likely to be driven by six specific and unique combinations of trends and conditions. 13
Each of these Contexts of Future Conflict creates a troubling problem space for the Joint Force.
They include:
1. Violent Ideological Competition. Irreconcilable ideas communicated and promoted by
identity networks through violence.
2. Threatened U.S. Territory and Sovereignty. Encroachment, erosion, or disregard of U.S.
sovereignty and the freedom of its citizens from coercion.
3. Antagonistic Geopolitical Balancing. Increasingly ambitious adversaries maximizing their
own influence while actively limiting U.S. influence.
4. Disrupted Global Commons. Denial or compulsion in spaces and places available to all but
owned by none.
5. A Contest for Cyberspace. A struggle to define and credibly protect sovereignty in
cyberspace.
6. Shattered and Reordered Regions. States unable to cope with internal political fractures,
environmental stressors, or deliberate external interference.
Each context includes elements of both contested norms and persistent disorder. However, their
relative importance will vary depending on the objectives of potential adversaries and the
capabilities available to them. Dissatisfaction with the current set of international rules, norms,
and agreements will cause revisionist actors to make their own – and attempt to enforce them.
Meanwhile, the loss of legitimacy or strength by governing authorities will permit other actors to
effectively employ coercion and violence in pursuit of power or to further their beliefs.
Furthermore, the Contexts of Future Conflict should not be viewed in isolation. The Joint Force
will almost certainly operate within and across multiple contexts at any given time. Additionally,
it is likely to encounter escalating situations characterized by sudden and rapid transitions between
contexts. Thus, as a group, the contexts support the development of integrated operational
approaches to specific military problems – particularly as actual adversaries develop and execute
strategies that pose challenges across several contexts.
The challenges described within and across the Contexts of Future Conflict are not necessarily
preferred nor are they inevitable. Through its strategic decisions, the United States will actively,
and sometimes inadvertently, influence how trends and conditions unfold – and thus the severity
or probability of conflict and war within these contexts. Therefore, the successful application of
12
Colin Gray, Another Bloody Century, (2005), p. 55.
13
This section of JOE 2035 was derived from a Joint Staff J-7 study titled Contexts of Future Conflict:
Opportunities and Challenges for the Future Joint Force (September 2015).
21