The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World

Within this context, conflict and war will likely revolve around the denial of or compulsion within
spaces and places available to all but owned by none. The international norm of free and open
global commons is principally underwritten by the political influence and military power of the
United States. Since the end of World War II, the United States assumed chief responsibility for
protecting the commons, establishing shared rules and norms for their use, and encouraging wide
recognition and support for these rules and norms by other states. The United States relies on
unrestricted use of the global commons to connect with its allies and partners and support its
interests and commitments around the world. Therefore, the United States dedicates considerable
effort and military resources to ensure the global commons remain open, stable, and protected.
This context describes a future environment in which access and use of the global commons cannot
be taken for granted. As states become more capable of operating within the commons, they are
likely to develop – and attempt to enforce – their own rules and norms for acceptable use of the
commons. This might include new interpretations of freedom of navigation at sea or the assertion
of new economic rights in disputed continental shelf zones. They may also institute restrictions in
aerial approaches to their homeland or try to deny the operation and use of satellites in orbit. Some
states might also selectively regulate, jam, or otherwise deny electromagnetic frequencies in ways
that may be incompatible with U.S. strategic interests.
The commons in 2035 will be more congested, contested, and competitive. 31 Although the United
States is not likely to lose access to the commons as a whole, it will encounter an increasing number
of states able to threaten or restrict its freedom of action in the commons. Successful efforts to
disrupt or deny use of the seas, air, space, and the electromagnetic spectrum will degrade the ability
of the United States to connect with the global economy, support allies, and link military forces
together over wide areas. Denial of the commons, taken to its logical conclusion, could allow
adversaries to isolate the United States from friends and allies around the world. Control of the
commons by adversaries would then allow them to eventually project power from the commons
into the United States itself.
Nature of Potential Adversaries
The United States can expect some states to begin enforcing their own interpretations of acceptable
behavior in the air and maritime commons. Over the next two decades, an increasing number of
states will enhance their ability to monitor and patrol the air and sea farther offshore. This will
include a range of surveillance and patrol activities in strategic locations such as the East and South
China Seas and the Indian Ocean, and near strategic maritime choke points to include the Straits
of Hormuz, Malacca, Sudra, and Lombok, and the Red, Yellow, and Okhotsk Seas. There will be
an elevated risk of many different forces colliding or otherwise interfering with one another in
these areas, potentially disrupting international commerce.
The United States will also be increasingly encumbered by regulatory restrictions in maritime
zones within 12 to 200 nautical miles of coastlines. Some states will attempt to extend
administrative control over commercial activities transiting their continental shelf areas and EEZs.
They will use new legal constructs to hinder or obstruct the innocent passage of reconnaissance
and military patrols by other states, outside of generally recognized 12 mile territorial limits. These
31
Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21 st Century Defense (2012), p.2.
31