The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World

Within this context, conflict and war are likely to occur as states are unable to cope with internal
political fractures, environmental stressors, or deliberate external interference. As governments
fail to provide a regular legal framework, to develop economic stability, to adequately respond to
man-made and natural disasters, and to protect their citizens, they will become susceptible to
violent political action. Ultimately, multiple internal pressures might eventually cause a state to
shatter, a condition where the central government is no longer capable of providing effective and
legitimate governance, creating security threats that might affect neighbors and spread regionally.
Weak and fragile states might become the target of more capable external powers that will
increasingly exploit internal political, ethnic, or economic fractures to further their own strategic
interests. States under stress may also shatter due to these external pressures. Additionally, these
states once shattered, may then be forcibly partitioned, subdued, or reconnected by more powerful
states, or even very capable non-state or transnational actors. Moreover, damage resulting from
the chaos of shattered and reordered regions is not limited to the areas ostensibly under the control
of the weak state, but will have consequences for the wider international system.
Conflict in this context will have a significant urban dimension. The lack of connections between
new urban migrants and established social structures can potentially lead to friction among
sectarian or ethnic groups, and potentially result in the sectioning of cities by religious or ethnic
affiliation. Alienation of populations within these areas caused by both poverty and the
disorientation of formerly rural residents interacting with more cosmopolitan urban citizens may
increase the potential for criminal and gang-related activities as well as the development of urban
insurgent groups. Furthermore, the economic, social, and political unravelling of a city,
particularly a megacity, would overwhelm the capacity of most states and global humanitarian
response communities to effectively respond.
Nature of Potential Adversaries
Ineffective governance in weak states can ultimately lead to the emergence of sub-state actors who
oppose or seek to overthrow ruling authorities. While some groups will have legitimate grievances
against the state, others will exploit weakness by the central government as justification to seize
power, resources, or strategic territory. Increasingly, national borders may be challenged as
unresponsive to local political aspirations. Consequently, as internal authority is challenged and
begins to collapse, violence is likely to occur in the form of sectarian strife, ethnic conflict, or even
civil war.
Shattered states are often safe havens for criminal and extremist organizations, providing their own
type of order, however violent or illegitimate. Criminal networks in these environments serve as
critical hubs to global black markets that traffic in drugs, weapons, and people. Furthermore,
criminal activity within these shattered zones can become the de facto economy of extremist
organizations operating in the region. Left unchallenged, these criminal networks might become
capable enough to challenge the sovereignty of even functioning states.
Shattered regions can also lead to the emergence of violent groups that sustain themselves by
disrupting resource and trade routes, which can cause large-scale damage or negative long-term
geopolitical consequences. For example, shattered sovereignty in Somalia allowed for poaching
by international fishing companies and the subsequent decimation of the Somali fishing industry.
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